109 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

This is something that I don't believe is true or applies or is true in the real world. Again, Im fine with WAR as a general overall evaluation tool and what it is trying to tell me.
 
 
 
If youre asking me ifI would rather have MCab, and Jones or Trout and Jose Lopez its not even a debate.

And that's fine....and I can see some level of validity to that because the defensive stats drive some of this difference.

Now, Trouts defense wasn't rated that high last year..but McAb and Jones aren't good.

So, this would go back to what you feel about protection, lineups, etc...

Personally, I would rather have Trout because of money, age, etc...it makes him more valuable than those 2 off the field and it allows you put more around him.

[bnickle]

And it's funny that someone whose argument for Cabrera two years ago boiled down to Triple Crown is saying that all we're doing is looking at a number and seeing which one is higher.

First of all, its not like I was sitting there arguing so strongly for MCab against Trout.

 

 

There was strong kickback against stat nerds but not me screaming at the top of my lungs that MCAB was the MVP. I was split. I said it was right down the middle for me.  The TC, along with the fact that  the Tigers made the playoffs and Cabrera was outstanding down the stretch were the tiebreakers.

[SportsGuy]

First of all, its not like I was sitting there arguing so strongly for MCab and against Trout.


There was arguments against stat nerds but not me screaming at the top of my lungs that MCAB was the MVP. I was split. I said, it was right down the middle for me. The TC, along with the fact that the Tigers made the playoffs and Cabrera was outstanding down the stretch were the tiebreakers.

Yes, his team made the playoffs....playing a far easier schedule and facing far easier pitching to get that TC...but yes I know, none of that matters, right?

[bnickle]

And he arguably carried that team in a pennant race. Trout had that opportunity and wasn't nearly as good.

 

 

I know, I know, the games in May count the same as the ones in Sept. Technically true, but there is certainly more pressure and a different intensity to those games. Those games are managed and handled differently down the stretch. The value is the same in that you ultimately  get a win or a loss, but so many things about the games are different.

[SportsGuy]

And he arguably carried that team in a pennant race. Trout had that opportunity and wasn't nearly as good.
 
 
I know, I know, the games in May count the same as the ones in Sept. Technically true, but there is certainly more pressure and a different intensity to those games. Those games are managed and handled differently down the stretch. The value is the same in that you ultimately  get a win or a loss, but so many things about the games are different.

Yes, MCab played better with the bat that Sept...by 200ish points of OpS. But of course, we are just going to ignore defense and base running that month,right?

And, what is find funny about your argument here is that you are willing to dismiss WAR because you question how it's put together. Yet, you will just come up with some argument that Sept games are harder with no actual analysis or anything like that.

You are willing to just make things up and say they are true but you want to dismiss things that people have put a lot of time and research into.

And btw, the Angels won more games than Det in 2012...they just didn't have a sorry team ahead of them in first place who collapsed in the last month of the season.

To act as if Det made the playoffs because MCab had a 1032 OPS is hilarious.

[SportsGuy]

Verlander was pretty dominant in Sept 2012...he should get at least the same amount of credit as MCab for how they did down the stretch.

[bnickle]

Yes, MCab played better with the bat that Sept...by 200ish points of OpS. But of course, we are just going to ignore defense and base running that month,right?

And, what is find funny about your argument here is that you are willing to dismiss WAR because you question how it's put together. Yet, you will just come up with some argument that Sept games are harder with no actual analysis or anything like that.

You are willing to just make things up and say they are true but you want to dismiss things that people have put a lot of time and research into.

And btw, the Angels won more games than Det in 2012...they just didn't have a sorry team ahead of them in first place who collapsed in the last month of the season.

To act as if Det made the playoffs because MCab had a 1032 OPS is hilarious.

A. Again, Ive never dismissed WAR. .

 

B. Define "harder". I'm not necessarily saying the games are harder. Im saying there is a different intensity around the game and the way it is handled. At least for the contending team. That is indisputable. There is evidence that supports that.  Watch how much more likely a manager is to pull a struggling starter early, skip a starter, play his reg catcher 6 days a week vs 5 days a week, lean heavily on his best relievers,etc,etc.

[mweb08]

Obviously, some the defensive parts of WAR are flawed.
 
The reasons I bolded Cerrano's post is that there is no discussion to be had with some people once they look at one stat. His WAR is higher. He is the MVP. End of the story.
 
 
I also have some thoughts on other advanced stats that bother me and I'll use examples. If Chris wants to open up or bump an old thread Ill do it there. Since this one is being sidetracked by the "simple, close minded people"people.

Well if you're saying that's what I do, it's really not. But if someone is ahead by a huge margin in WAR, and I don't think the defensive part is that flawed, well there better be a great argument for why he's not the MVP.

[mweb08]

And it's funny that someone whose argument for Cabrera two years ago boiled down to Triple Crown is saying that all we're doing is looking at a number and seeing which one is higher.

First of all, its not like I was sitting there arguing so strongly for MCab against Trout.
 
 
There was strong kickback against stat nerds but not me screaming at the top of my lungs that MCAB was the MVP. I was split. I said it was right down the middle for me.  The TC, along with the fact that  the Tigers made the playoffs and Cabrera was outstanding down the stretch were the tiebreakers.

I was referring to Pedro.

[mweb08]

Btw.....if we are talking MVO here, fWAR actually says Jones is the most valuable oriole right now.


I wouldn't agree with that. I'm not giving him that award over Cruz because he has been worth more fWAR.

I haven't been looking at WAR numbers this year, but yeah, I wouldn't say Jones is the must valuable Oriole so far.

[SportsGuy]

A. Again, Ive never dismissed WAR. .
 
B. Define "harder". I'm not necessarily saying the games are harder. Im saying there is a different intensity around the game and the way it is handled. At least for the contending team. That is indisputable. There is evidence that supports that.  Watch how much more likely a manager is to pull a struggling starter early, skip a starter, play his reg catcher 6 days a week vs 5 days a week, lean heavily on his best relievers,etc,etc.

But we don't know how much different it is. End of the day, I agree the games have more intensity...but, at the end of the day, you can't measure that and, for the most part, it's overblown.

So, if you question one method..one that has been researched...why are you not questioning another...that has no research?

Jus because managers over manage? That's what you got?

[SportsGuy]

Actually,..I guess I should say that just because managers manage correctly in sept and poorly the rest of the year, is your evidence?

[You Play to Win the Game]

With FieldFX coming next year, i'm intrigued to see what that does to dWAR over the best 3-5 years as they work out the kinks/understand the shifts, etc.

I personally think oWAR is the only reliable component to WAR for several reasons. But it is a nice tool, and I really like the concept.

[Pedro Cerrano]

All we are doing is rehashing the same arguments over and over. It's tiresome.

I will say, I need to correct SG who keeps mentioning that I love RBIs, that's not the case -- RBIs are a very flawed stat, my avatar is tongue in cheek.

That said, I liked MCab as MVP two years ago and a big reason was the triple crown which RBI is a part of. I'll admit that. But that was more for the historical significance of the feat than the fact that he had the most RBI.

[Pedro Cerrano]

And it's funny that someone whose argument for Cabrera two years ago boiled down to Triple Crown is saying that all we're doing is looking at a number and seeing which one is higher.

Weber, when someone has a higher WAR, you have zero ability to tell a lay person what that means. When someone has a lower WHIP (a stat I happen to really like, and was told by Stoner I was playing 1998 Yahoo fantasy baseball lol) I can tell the lay person "that means that this pitcher allows on average, 1.25 hits and walks per inning whereas this guy, whose a WHIP is .98, allows less than a hit or walk per inning which is really good."

That's the difference...it allows the person receiving the info to decide how much stock to put into something. You guys, almost literally, would have to say "Player X has a higher WAR than player Y and that tells us that uh, player X is worth more wins, because Tom Tango says so."

I think that's garbage, sorry.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I never bring up WAR with lay folk. It'd be silly. Instead, I reference defense, positional scarcity, etc. The concepts of WAR aren't rocket science, but the formula is (to the lay person).

[SportsGuy]

Weber, when someone has a higher WAR, you have zero ability to tell a lay person what that means. When someone has a lower WHIP (a stat I happen to really like, and was told by Stoner I was playing 1998 Yahoo fantasy baseball lol) I can tell the lay person "that means that this pitcher allows on average, 1.25 hits and walks per inning whereas this guy, whose a WHIP is .98, allows less than a hit or walk per inning which is really good."
That's the difference...it allows the person receiving the info to decide how much stock to put into something. You guys, almost literally, would have to say "Player X has a higher WAR than player Y and that tells us that uh, player X is worth more wins, because Tom Tango says so."
I think that's garbage, sorry.

So, because you can explain a poor stat to someone that isn't as knowledgable, that makes that stat more valid?

[JeremyStrain]

Not taking sides because I hate statistical debates, good and bad, but just wanted to say that the looking down your nose at certain stats while cherry picking others is a bit hypocritical. Every statistic has good and bad to it, and there is nothing wrong with WHIP, as it gives a good impression of how many baserunners a guy allows on average. Just like xFIP has its own good characteristics.

All stats are just tools, none of them are bad, its what people do or say with them that is the problem. Stats dont kill people, people kill people.

[Pedro Cerrano]

So, because you can explain a poor stat to someone that isn't as knowledgable, that makes that stat more valid?

I would argue that because you CAN explain my stat, it makes your stat "poor", at least in terms of analyzing players, but hey, agree to disagree.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Not taking sides because I hate statistical debates, good and bad, but just wanted to say that the looking down your nose at certain stats while cherry picking others is a bit hypocritical. Every statistic has good and bad to it, and there is nothing wrong with WHIP, as it gives a good impression of how many baserunners a guy allows on average. Just like xFIP has its own good characteristics. All stats are just tools, none of them are bad, its what people do or say with them that is the problem. Stats dont kill people, people kill people.

Amen.