685 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd extend him now, but only if we can buy out a couple of FA years at semi-reasonable ($10-12M) amounts.

I don't see that as being likely, though.

I would not lock him up only through arbitration. I'd rather pay big one a year-to-year basis if he explodes than be stuck with a $4M, $7M, $10M type contract over his 3 arb years if he either doesn't develop as a hitter or, more likely, suffers a major injury.

Right, I'd agree with this. You would have to be able to get the first two years of FA back in return for the extension. With him being multiple yrs away from Free Agency as it is, part of me thinks Wieters would have to take that extension if offered now. Idea being that it would be very risky for a Catcher to turn down additional guaranteed dollars.

Wieters had that .840 OPS after the All-Star break last year. I agree with those that would be disappointed if he is not over .800 for the coming year. You would think this would be the season (if it is going to happen) where a large offensive leap could occur.

I'm also interested in watching his splits this year.

In '11, he had a 1.124 OPS vs. LHP, and a .665 OPS vs. RHP.
In '10, he had a .564 OPS vs. LHP, and a .741 OPS vs. RHP.
In '09, he had a .671 OPS vs. LHP, and a .804 OPS vs. RHP.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Wieters would be my cleanup hitter.

[Mackus]

Wieters would be my cleanup hitter.

Agreed. Unless Reynolds has one of those years where can hit .250, in which case I slide him there.

[NewMarketSean]

I wouldn't make Wieters the clean-up hitter just yet.

I'd probably start off with Reynolds and if Wieters is chugging along, move him into the spot.

[Pedro Cerrano]

35 HR baby.

This is the year.

[bnickle]

35 HR baby.

This is the year.

Slow your roll. 25 with a .820 OPS should make everyone happy.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Matthew Pouliot, NBC Sports Hardball Talk: “I don’t think there’s a catcher I’d take before Wieters. Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey are the only ones I project as better hitters this year, and Wieters has a big defensive edge over Santana and Napoli and fewer durability questions than the other two. Ignoring the contracts, maybe I’d still take Mauer first, but not with the idea that he’ll still be catching four or five years down the road. Wieters showed his power in the second half of last year, and with his modest strikeout rate, there’s good reason to think he’s going to start hitting for better averages. I have him at .286/.360/.495 with 25 homers for 2012.”

Brandon Warne, FanGraphs:“If there’s no financial implications, I’d only take a handful of catchers before him. Brian McCann, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, and a healthy Joe Mauer. Otherwise, he’s right in the mix there. It’s a good cautionary tale about hype too, because I think a lot of people were ready to write him off after such an ordinary beginning to a career that was supposed to be the next Mauer, if I’m not mistaken. Don’t be surprised if that OPS creeps above .800 this year.”

Satchel Price, SB Nation: “I’m a huge, huge Wieters fan. I think we could see a huge breakout in 2012, and even if he doesn’t improve he’s still essentially an All Star at this point. For next year, the only guys I’d take over Wieters would probably be Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. Long term, Avila might be the only catcher that I’d take long-term over Wieters, but I honestly think that Wieters may be the best young catcher in the sport.”

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Crazies: http://www.camdencra...ds-betemit.html

525 PA, .270/.337/.446, +5 fielding, 4.0 Wins Above Replamcent

"There's some mild concern that Wieters won't be able to maintain the power production he showed last year - he went from 11 homers to 22 - but a plus hitting Gold Glove caliber catcher is very valuable. He's the team's best player, and he could very well beat this projection and turn into a star player."

[Oriole85]

Whether you think Wieters would be willing to extend now or not, do you think the O's should be providing an offer?

Yes, I think you try to extend him even now. Given that Boras is his agent, it's very unlikely. Jered Weaver only did it against Boras wishes. Wieters might have been the one Oriole a few years ago, they should've offered a Longoria/Moore deal to. Who knows maybe they did?

All this being said, I'm not exactly disappointed the Orioles have not extended him yet. He still has a long way to go to FA. And assuming the Orioles are going to continue to be bad for the next few years, do you really want a catcher taking up a large chunk of the roster money? I've referenced Joe Mauer before, that contract for the Twins seemed great at the time. A lot is made about the teams signing players to extensions, but in that case, it was much more beneficial to the player. If he had not gotten that deal done, I don't think he gets close to that amount of money given the injuries and ineffectiveness he experienced that season (as well as last year).

[Oriole85]

Whether you think Wieters would be willing to extend now or not, do you think the O's should be providing an offer?

Yea but you have to be careful what you offer him.

PECOTA is predicting a 733ish OPS for him this year. I think that's low but based on what he has done, its easy to see why they came up with that.

He is also a very big guy and you just wonder how the wear and tear on his body will be as he gets older and, as of right now, his bat doesn't play well in any other position that he is capable of playing.

I would like to sign him to a deal where you can eat up his arb years, 1 year of free agency and have an option for a second year of free agency.

If he isn't open to that and he has a big first half this year, I start looking to see what other teams will give up for him in a trade.

I've said for some time, there is no untradeable player on the Orioles, even Wieters. I agree with what you are saying regarding an extension, of course, I'd like to see the terms. If it's clear that he won't sign a *somewhat* reasonable extension, you have to explore trading him. I'm not saying jump at the first thing that comes up, but you see what out there. He'd probably bring back the greatest return. And let's face it, having Wieters on the team and sub-70 wins every year, doesn't do any good.

[SportsGuy]

Molina has apparently signed a 5 year contract worth 70-75M, according to Rosenthal.

At this point, I am unclear if they tore up his contract for this year or if this is an extension starting in 2013. I believe this was a contract starting in 2013, so let's go with that premise.

This is a contract that takes up no 3-6 years for Molina. This is all free agency. Molina's contract will run him through his age 35 season.

Since 2007, Molina has been worth anywhere from 2-4 WAR per season. His average worth has been $12.8M, which was greatly helped out by his 2011 season, where he was worth just under 19M. In his career, Molina has only been worth what he will get paid twice in his career, if you believe that fWAR is a valid stat..and perhaps, some will question that more with catchers than other positions because of the so called intangibles that don't really mean anything but are still put on a pedestal by many.

Molina has a career OPS of 707 and only once has he been over 800(this past season) and his next highest is 749.

He has usually been a very good defensive catcher with a poorish bat.

So, that brings us to Wieters. After the 2012 season, he will be arb eligible and we could be looking to extend him at that point.

Obviously, his contract would be different than Molina's because of the issues of arbitration.

My guess is that Wieters will be worth something like 3/6/10 in his 3 arb years, bringing those totals to 19M...Now, if he really blows up, those numbers will be higher, perhaps much higher but based on what Wieters is doing now and how the system works, I think that's a fair estimate right now.

However, his free agency years will have to be high when you consider this contract, Mauer's contract, the Baltimore factor and, of course, the Boras factor.

Wieters turns 26 this May and, unlike Molina, has a build that tells you there is a good chance he will have to move from catcher sometime in the future...the question is, how far into the future?

So, if you are the Orioles and you see this contract, you see what Wieters has done, his body size, etc....what kind of contract do you give him?

For me, I would feel comfortable giving him a 5 year deal with an option.

I would offer him a deal structured similarly to this:

2013: 3
2014: 6
2015: 10
2016: 13
2017: 17
2018(option): 20

So, that's a 5/49 deal that could be worth 6/69.

I am not sure he signs that deal but I also am not sure I feel comfortable giving him more than that either.

[SportsGuy]

http://www.fangraphs... ... her-aging/

FG's take on catcher's aging.

[Oriole85]

Molina has apparently signed a 5 year contract worth 70-75M, according to Rosenthal.

At this point, I am unclear if they tore up his contract for this year or if this is an extension starting in 2013. I believe this was a contract starting in 2013, so let's go with that premise.

This is a contract that takes up no 3-6 years for Molina. This is all free agency. Molina's contract will run him through his age 35 season.

Since 2007, Molina has been worth anywhere from 2-4 WAR per season. His average worth has been $12.8M, which was greatly helped out by his 2011 season, where he was worth just under 19M. In his career, Molina has only been worth what he will get paid twice in his career, if you believe that fWAR is a valid stat..and perhaps, some will question that more with catchers than other positions because of the so called intangibles that don't really mean anything but are still put on a pedestal by many.

Molina has a career OPS of 707 and only once has he been over 800(this past season) and his next highest is 749.

He has usually been a very good defensive catcher with a poorish bat.

So, that brings us to Wieters. After the 2012 season, he will be arb eligible and we could be looking to extend him at that point.

Obviously, his contract would be different than Molina's because of the issues of arbitration.

My guess is that Wieters will be worth something like 3/6/10 in his 3 arb years, bringing those totals to 19M...Now, if he really blows up, those numbers will be higher, perhaps much higher but based on what Wieters is doing now and how the system works, I think that's a fair estimate right now.

However, his free agency years will have to be high when you consider this contract, Mauer's contract, the Baltimore factor and, of course, the Boras factor.

Wieters turns 26 this May and, unlike Molina, has a build that tells you there is a good chance he will have to move from catcher sometime in the future...the question is, how far into the future?

So, if you are the Orioles and you see this contract, you see what Wieters has done, his body size, etc....what kind of contract do you give him?

For me, I would feel comfortable giving him a 5 year deal with an option.

I would offer him a deal structured similarly to this:

2013: 3
2014: 6
2015: 10
2016: 13
2017: 17
2018(option): 20

So, that's a 5/49 deal that could be worth 6/69.

I am not sure he signs that deal but I also am not sure I feel comfortable giving him more than that either.

The Boras factor means he probably won't sign an extension. Remember, Jered Weaver only did it against Boras advice.

I wonder how much they'll want to give to Wieters if the O's are still a 65-70 win team anyways?

[SportsGuy]

BTW, barring some major turnaround, if Wieters has a good year and isn't willing to sign this extension, I look to trade him this July or next offseason.

[Can_of_corn]

The real question is, overpay for Molina or drastic overpay for Molina? I know his body type is better suited for catching but 14-15 million a year for a 31-35 year old catcher who is coming off a career year with the bat is high.

[BSLChrisStoner]

BTW, barring some major turnaround, if Wieters has a good year and isn't willing to sign this extension, I look to trade him this July or next off-season.

With Wieters not being a FA until after 2015, I'm not sure I see even a 1% chance of him being moved this July or next off-season. You can easily let all of 2013 play out before these questions really pick-up.

Can't even imagine the package that would have to come back to move him this July, or next Winter.

[Mackus]

I don't see Wieters signing an extension unless he unexpectedly ditches Boras.

[SportsGuy]

BTW, barring some major turnaround, if Wieters has a good year and isn't willing to sign this extension, I look to trade him this July or next off-season.

With Wieters not being a FA until after 2015, I'm not sure I see even a 1% chance of him being moved this July or next off-season. You can easily let all of 2013 play out before these questions really pick-up.

Can't even imagine the package that would have to come back to move him this July, or next Winter.

Which of course would be extremely short sighted of the team unless....

1) He is open to an extension similar to what i said.

2) You look much better than anticipated.

Otherwise, you better look to deal him this July or in the offseason.

[Mackus]

Which of course would be extremely short sighted of the team unless....

1) He is open to an extension similar to what i said.

2) You look much better than anticipated.

Otherwise, you better look to deal him this July or in the offseason.

I don't think this July is any better of a time to be trading Wieters than the offseason of even next July. I honestly think that the most likely scenario is that his value is just going to continue to climb, and he's so far away from free agency that the extra time is essentially negligible. Next July he'll still have 2 1/2 seasons before free agency.

If the team implodes I certainly consider deals for him right now, but I don't think it's a must or even particularly important that we should trade him in July if he's not willing to extend. If we decide to trade Wieters, he's going to fetch a huge return at any point up through the offseason prior to his free agency, that's when the returns will start to diminish a bit, IMO.

I really hope we can extend him and keep him here, and the cost doesn't really concern me too much. Id' be perfectly happy with guaranteeing him $15-18M per year for a couple FA years right now. Because if he's not worth that money come 2016, then we're probably completely screwed anyways. I just don't see him extending - especially here - prior to hitting free agency.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Which of course would be extremely short sighted of the team unless....

1) He is open to an extension similar to what i said.

2) You look much better than anticipated.

Otherwise, you better look to deal him this July or in the offseason.

I think not speaking to Jones in detail about an extension this off-season was a mistake. If the O's are not speaking to Wieters now, I would also think that is a mistake, but to a much lesser degree.

If the O's want to wait until after '13 to broach an extension with Wieters, it will cost them financially (if he was open towards extending), but I do not think it would hurt the O's in terms of what could come back in a trade.

Would Wieters be more attractive in a trade at the '12 non-waiver deadline, or '12 off-season with 3 to 3.5 years left on his contract vs. being traded after '13? Sure he would. However, if you make him available after '13, and he still has two years left on his contract, he would command plenty back in a trade.

So I don't agree with the idea that it would be short-sighted on the O's part if they don't move him in the time-frame you mentioned.