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JJ Hardy


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 December 2011 - 09:46 AM

Dempsey's Army: http://dempseysarmy....as-gift-to.html

Heath from Dempsey's Army looks at the contracts FA SS's have received this Winter, as compared to the extension Hardy signed.

#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 27 December 2011 - 11:25 AM

CSN Baltimore: http://www.csnbaltim...686&feedID=6704

#3 Adam Wolff

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Posted 27 December 2011 - 11:31 AM

I know there are plenty of people that wanted Hardy traded, but I love his extension. He can hit and field with the best at his position and should (hopefully) be our bridge to Machado. I'd like to see him move down in the order this year and hopefully knock in a few more runs, but he can clearly help the team from any spot in the lineup.

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#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:11 AM

Camden Crazies: http://www.camdencra...ds-betemit.html

500 PA, .259/.310/.427, +5 fielding, 2.6 WAR

"I'd be very, very surprised to see Hardy hit 30 home runs again, but he doesn't need to to be a valuable player. I hope the plate discipline numbers come around though, and that he stays healthy."

#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:26 AM

There was a logical argument to be made for trading Hardy, but I am glad he was extended. (Though if the O's are again abysmal, they should shop him this year.) Would like to see a higher on-base % (.310), but I’ll take 57 xbh’s (.491 Slugging %) and legitimate Major League defense at SS. Last year he played in 129 games, making it three consecutive seasons where he played less than 130 games. His ISO was .222, and his wOBA was .343.

I see Daniel from Camden Crazies is projecting a .427 Slugging %, which is in-line with Hardy's career .435 Slugging %. To me, it is fair to wonder if Hardy will again have a significant injury. However, in the 3years he has played 129+ games ('07, '08, and '11) his slugging has been above .463 in each of those seasons. If Hardy gets the 500 PA that Daniel projects, I'll be surprised if his slugging regresses that much.

#6 Oriole85

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 10:55 AM

I know there are plenty of people that wanted Hardy traded, but I love his extension. He can hit and field with the best at his position and should (hopefully) be our bridge to Machado. I'd like to see him move down in the order this year and hopefully knock in a few more runs, but he can clearly help the team from any spot in the lineup.


It seemed to me that many people wanted him extended then when they realized what kind of return they *could've* gotten after he had been extended, the tune changed. The whole "the grass is greener on the other side."

I like the extension as well, I don't see it really being an issue with Machado (assuming he works out), Hardy could slide to second or maybe third.

However, I see him regressing, I don't think he puts together the kind of 2011 season again, but I think he should come close to or surpass the alue of his contract. Solid SS don't exactly grow on trees.
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#7 Mackus

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:01 AM

I liked the extension for Hardy. You likely weren't going to get much for him as a 2-month rental. Now, even if we decide to rebuild in July or next offseason, he's signed to a very reasonable contract and likely will be more valuable if/when we decide to trade him than he would have been at last year's deadline.

If he could get the OBP up to about .330 or so and maintain close to the same power, he'll be worth twice that contract or more. Even if he comes back down a bit after last year, he should still easily be worth that contract if he can stay even moderately healthy (one 3-4 week DL trip per year) due to his steady defense.

#8 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:13 AM

Good extension...but poor that we didn't trade him.

#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:17 AM

Good extension...but poor that we didn't trade him.


What numbers are you projecting from him?

#10 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:21 AM

Good extension...but poor that we didn't trade him.


What numbers are you projecting from him?

750-780 OPS...solid defense.

He is an above average SS.

He just should have been traded.

#11 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:25 AM

750-780 OPS...solid defense.


Whether he should have been traded (or still should) is a discussion we can have. I asked what you were projecting from him, to see how close you were to the Camden Crazies projection as a comparison.

#12 Oriole85

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:27 AM

Even if he comes back down a bit after last year, he should still easily be worth that contract if he can stay even moderately healthy (one 3-4 week DL trip per year) due to his steady defense.


I'll take the season he had last year with the same length DL stint with him again this year, provided he gives us similar numbers. One of the few bright spots last year. I predicted he would be good, but didn't think he was going to be this good.
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#13 Mackus

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:32 AM

Good extension...but poor that we didn't trade him.

Only a definitively bad decision if he's worth less now (or in 3 months or a year or whenever we try to trade him next) than he was as a 2 month rental (plus Type B compensation) at the deadline last year. I don't think its a slam dunk that we could've gotten more for him last July than we could at some point in the near future.

I do agree with the sentiment that his contract, while a good deal, is pretty indicative of the wheel-spinning / suck-in-neutral / rudderless way in which the organization is being run, though. No set course, just bringing in decent players on decent contracts who don't add up to a decent team.

#14 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:39 AM

Good extension...but poor that we didn't trade him.

Only a definitively bad decision if he's worth less now (or in 3 months or a year or whenever we try to trade him next) than he was as a 2 month rental (plus Type B compensation) at the deadline last year. I don't think its a slam dunk that we could've gotten more for him last July than we could at some point in the near future.

I do agree with the sentiment that his contract, while a good deal, is pretty indicative of the wheel-spinning / suck-in-neutral / rudderless way in which the organization is being run, though. No set course, just bringing in decent players on decent contracts who don't add up to a decent team.

The issue with JJ is health.

That is going to be hanging over him until he shows he can consistently stay on the field for multiple seasons.

That's why trading him last year, when there were several contenders in need of a SS, was a good idea..Remember, he would have been worth a draft pick or 2 as well(unlike the new CBA rules). I think we could have gotten a lot for him.

Don't get me wrong, i am glad we have him. I advocated us to get him for the 2 years prior to him coming here. Its just that it ended up being a perfect storm of reasons to trade him.

But the extension that he signed was very team friendly although it does come with the injury risk attached to it.

#15 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 12:00 PM

Bill James and ZiPS has him at around a 760 OPS.

#16 Mackus

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 12:56 PM

That's why trading him last year, when there were several contenders in need of a SS, was a good idea..Remember, he would have been worth a draft pick or 2 as well(unlike the new CBA rules). I think we could have gotten a lot for him.

He was Type B so you'd just get the one pick. I definitely think we should have explored a trade for him last year. Had we been able to get a lot for him, then I agree we should have moved him.

I tend to be more of the opinion, however, that we can likely still get a similar package for him now or in the near future than to what I expect was offered back in July, which is probably less than what you think we could've gotten in return. Some teams may view him as more valuable since he's now inked to a team-friendly multi-year deal, especially so if he continues to play close to the level he did last season. You're definitely right that his injury history will play a factor in his future value, but I also think it played a factor in his value at last July.

#17 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:23 PM

That's why trading him last year, when there were several contenders in need of a SS, was a good idea..Remember, he would have been worth a draft pick or 2 as well(unlike the new CBA rules). I think we could have gotten a lot for him.

He was Type B so you'd just get the one pick. I definitely think we should have explored a trade for him last year. Had we been able to get a lot for him, then I agree we should have moved him.

I tend to be more of the opinion, however, that we can likely still get a similar package for him now or in the near future than to what I expect was offered back in July, which is probably less than what you think we could've gotten in return. Some teams may view him as more valuable since he's now inked to a team-friendly multi-year deal, especially so if he continues to play close to the level he did last season. You're definitely right that his injury history will play a factor in his future value, but I also think it played a factor in his value at last July.

He would have fetched a very good package.

IF he stays healthy and performs, then I agree he could fetch more than he could have in July because of his contract.

But again, just like with Jones and J JOhnson, you are really gambling on that...odds say you lose that bet.

#18 Mackus

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:40 PM

He would have fetched a very good package.

IF he stays healthy and performs, then I agree he could fetch more than he could have in July because of his contract.

But again, just like with Jones and J JOhnson, you are really gambling on that...odds say you lose that bet.

I don't really think it's that much of a gamble, but then again you and I have different opinions on how much these guys were worth and how much they might be worth in the near future. If I felt the way you do in regards to what was available for them last July or in the offseason, then I would probably be more upset that they weren't already dealt.

Except Johnson. I definitely would have moved him this offseason. I do think if he comes out and closes well that his value goes way up, but I think - much moreso than Jones and Hardy - that he is a prime candidate for a disappointing season and severely depressed trade value.

#19 SportsGuy

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 04:13 PM

He would have fetched a very good package.

IF he stays healthy and performs, then I agree he could fetch more than he could have in July because of his contract.

But again, just like with Jones and J JOhnson, you are really gambling on that...odds say you lose that bet.

I don't really think it's that much of a gamble, but then again you and I have different opinions on how much these guys were worth and how much they might be worth in the near future. If I felt the way you do in regards to what was available for them last July or in the offseason, then I would probably be more upset that they weren't already dealt.

Except Johnson. I definitely would have moved him this offseason. I do think if he comes out and closes well that his value goes way up, but I think - much moreso than Jones and Hardy - that he is a prime candidate for a disappointing season and severely depressed trade value.

Ehh, I can see that but I think Hardy being hurt and missing a big portion of the season is just as likely as JJ being an average at best closer with a 3.5-4 ERA.

#20 Greg Pappas

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 07:58 PM

My views on Hardy are virtually identical to SG's... and if Hardy has a good first half and is healthy, he should be dealt for a good return. Off the top of my head, consider when the San Diego Padres traded reliever Mike Adams to Texas for LHP Robbie Erlin and RHP Joe Wieland. I know Adams was a reliever, but I believe Hardy should get better than that this summer.




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