201 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Cleveland and their Catcher Carlos Santana have apparently agreed on a contract extension, with terms to be released today.

Will be interesting to see what Santana gets.

[Mackus]

I just don't see Wieters extending here, at least not anytime soon and certainly not for cheap. I could see him locking in his arbitration years, but I don't see a major benefit in that from the perspective of the Orioles.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I just don't see Wieters extending here, at least not anytime soon and certainly not for cheap. I could see him locking in his arbitration years, but I don't see a major benefit in that from the perspective of the Orioles.

Any extension for Wieters has to go through at-least his first year of Free Agency. He's still so far away from FA, that I think he would have to at-least strongly consider any offer from the O's.

[SportsGuy]

Cleveland and their Catcher Carlos Santana have apparently agreed on a contract extension, with terms to be released today.

Will be interesting to see what Santana gets.

http://espn.go.com/m... ... m-contract

It goes through his first year of FA and they have an option for his second year.

Something along those lines would be perfect.

Wieters has to be more expensive.

[Mackus]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7795306/cleveland-indians-sign-carlos-santana-5-year-21m-contract

It goes through his first year of FA and they have an option for his second year.

Something along those lines would be perfect.

Wieters has to be more expensive.

I would love to lock in Wieters to a deal structured like that. He'll definitely be more expensive, but that's fine. Whatever it takes to lock him up, we should pay him. I think with the Dodgers sale, that club values are going way up, and as such so will player contracts. What looks like a huge deal today might look very reasonable 3 years from now. I'd be absolutely fine offering Wieters something like $4M/$8M/$12M for his arbitration years and then $15-18M per for a FA year or two.

However, I still don't expect him and Boras to agree to a contract that eats up any of his FA years. As a catcher, he definitely wants to hit the market as soon as possible so he can get paid big for as many prime years as he may have. He's going to have a tough time as it is now getting a 5+ year deal after 2015 entering his age 30 season, even if his numbers justify it. I would be really surprised if he delays that by a season or two without getting paid a really incredible amount.

[SportsGuy]

Boras did let CarGo do it after his monster year and he isn't a catcher.

Boras is starting to see that if these guys get these deals early on, that they can still get another big contract in their lower 30s.

[Mackus]

Boras did let CarGo do it after his monster year and he isn't a catcher.

Boras is starting to see that if these guys get these deals early on, that they can still get another big contract in their lower 30s.

Gonzalez will hit the market again entering his age 32 season (his deal bought out 3 years of FA at $16M, $17M, and $20M), and as an outfielder could still get a big deal if he really performs well. On average, a 32 y/o OF has a lot of baseball left compared to a 32 y/o catcher (how old Wieters would be if we buy out 3 of his FA years).

I certainly think we should be pushing for a deal. I just don't expect Boras and Wieters to accept anything unless it goes well past what I would consider reasonable.

Overpaying to keep him would be a better option than losing him, IMO, so I'm fine with going big for him if that's what it takes. Gonzalez' contract isn't a bad comparison, I just continue to look at Boras' clients extending as the exceptions and certainly not the rule.

[GaryArmida]

I think the Santana deal hurts Wieters but helps the Orioles. 5 years, $21 million is a steal for Santana. It sets the bar a bit for Wieters, who I do think is a better hitter and obviously better catcher. But, the AAV of Santana's deal leaves a lot and damages the comparison unless Wieters does outhit Santana this year. That's the only way he gets more. From an Orioles franchise POV, Santana's contract is tremendous.

[SportsGuy]

If I am the Orioles, Wieters is either signed or traded by next ST.

I just don't like the idea of playing out the string of his arb years and just seeing what happens unless some miracle happens and we look like we are going to be contenders next year.

Just too much risk there. If he isn't willing to sign here long term and he has a big year this year, he will be worth a ton in the offseason or maybe even at the deadline.

[Mackus]

I think the Santana deal hurts Wieters but helps the Orioles. 5 years, $21 million is a steal for Santana. It sets the bar a bit for Wieters, who I do think is a better hitter and obviously better catcher. But, the AAV of Santana's deal leaves a lot and damages the comparison unless Wieters does outhit Santana this year. That's the only way he gets more. From an Orioles franchise POV, Santana's contract is tremendous.

You've also got to consider service time, not just average annual value, when a guy signs for club-controlled years. Santana has no chance of getting free market value for most of those seasons, since he wouldn't even be arbitration eligible until after 2013, whereas Wieters is arb-eligible after this year.

So basically you can knock off a whole year of that deal to make it even with where Wieters is service time wise. He locked in his arbitration years for $3.5M, $6.5M, and $8.25M with then a $12M option or $1.2M buyout of his first FA year, plus a $1M signing bonus. Essentially, he's guaranteed $20.5M for his 3 arb years. I'd expect Wieters to need more money for his arbitration years, since he's closer to reaching them than Santana was when he signed his deal. So think something like $5M, $8M, $12M or about $25M total, give or take. Then for his FA years, something in the $15-18M range per year, probably escalating, if he agrees at all to locking any of those in.

[Mackus]

If I am the Orioles, Wieters is either signed or traded by next ST.

I don't think you have to trade him at some point next year if he isn't extended, he still isn't a FA until after the 2015 season, but I would certainly start listening to offers if he makes it clear he isn't going to extend. I agree that his value would be ridiculously high, especially if he has a big season.

[SportsGuy]

I don't think you have to trade him at some point next year if he isn't extended, he still isn't a FA until after the 2015 season, but I would certainly start listening to offers if he makes it clear he isn't going to extend. I agree that his value would be ridiculously high, especially if he has a big season.

But the longer you wait, the more you have to overpay to get him here, which means you will regret the contract.

And you also risk injury, decreasing performance, etc..

[Mackus]

But the longer you wait, the more you have to overpay to get him here, which means you will regret the contract.

And you also risk injury, decreasing performance, etc..

Yeah, it's definitely a decision that could go in any of a variety of directions depending on his performance and, if you trade him, how the guys you get back do. Could really propel the franchise to have Wieters playing at a star level behind the plate for several years, or we could extend him, he declines/gets hurt and we continue to wallow in ineptitude. We could also propel the franchise forward by trading him for 3 future all-stars, or we could trade him for a decent outfielder, two bust pitchers, and a prospect and continue to wallow in ineptitude while Wieters wins MVPs in his new town.

It'll definitely be a major decision when it's time to make it, and the repercussions will be strongly felt for years to come.

If it was me making the decision - and under the working assumption that Wieters develops into a true All-Star level catcher but a bit shy of being a real superstar on the level of a Fielder or Votto or Mauer - I spend all of this season and next season trying to get him to sign. I'd put feelers out gauging his trade value, but my priority would be to extend him, if possible. I think it's likely that we can't extend him, though, and in that case, I really start to look to deal him after next season. With two years left on his deal you can still get a lot for him. I think that the difference in trade value of a guy with 3 years left compared to 2 years left isn't that major, and it'd be worth it to me to use that year to try and convince him to extend.

If he flat out says he won't extend, then I look to move him. Only thing that would avoid me trading him for a major return in that scenario would be, like you mentioned before, if the unexpected happens and it appears we may actually be able to contend in that timeframe. I'm more than willing to get less than we should in return for Wieters, or nothing at all, if keeping him gives us a legitimate chance at a playoff berth. That's obviously a long shot at this point, though.

[BSLChrisStoner]

]Yeah, it's definitely a decision that could go in any of a variety of directions depending on his performance and, if you trade him, how the guys you get back do. Could really propel the franchise to have Wieters playing at a star level behind the plate for several years, or we could extend him, he declines/gets hurt and we continue to wallow in ineptitude. We could also propel the franchise forward by trading him for 3 future all-stars, or we could trade him for a decent outfielder, two bust pitchers, and a prospect and continue to wallow in ineptitude while Wieters wins MVPs in his new town.

It'll definitely be a major decision when it's time to make it, and the repercussions will be strongly felt for years to come.

If it was me making the decision - and under the working assumption that Wieters develops into a true All-Star level catcher but a bit shy of being a real superstar on the level of a Fielder or Votto or Mauer - I spend all of this season and next season trying to get him to sign. I'd put feelers out gauging his trade value, but my priority would be to extend him, if possible. I think it's likely that we can't extend him, though, and in that case, I really start to look to deal him after next season. With two years left on his deal you can still get a lot for him. I think that the difference in trade value of a guy with 3 years left compared to 2 years left isn't that major, and it'd be worth it to me to use that year to try and convince him to extend.

If he flat out says he won't extend, then I look to move him. Only thing that would avoid me trading him for a major return in that scenario would be, like you mentioned before, if the unexpected happens and it appears we may actually be able to contend in that timeframe. I'm more than willing to get less than we should in return for Wieters, or nothing at all, if keeping him gives us a legitimate chance at a playoff berth. That's obviously a long shot at this point, though.

I agree with this take pretty much word for word.

[glenn__davis]

The time is going to come very soon for the Orioles to think about extending Matt Wieters. In fact I'm sure it's already been discussed internally, just as it's been discussed on various internet forums.

Obviously with Boras as his agent there is the belief that he will not sign an extension and will go the FA route.

However, Wieters doesn't really seem to me to be the type of player to do that. I think he really likes Baltimore, likes his current status on this team, and wants to be a guy who helps this team turn the corner. I really have no concrete information on this other than seeing his interviews and they way he interacts with his teammates on a daily basis.

Does any else agree/disagree? What do you think the chances are that Wieters signs an extension before FA?

I predict he's going to pull a Jared Weaver on Boras. Am I looking through orange-colored glasses?

[ravens8589]

You are not totally off with your thought process. Wieters loves Baltimore and would definitely like to be a center-piece for the future as would Jones. The biggest thing is I'm not 100% sure on how many years he has left on his current contract so that could fuzz things up a bit.

I believe there is an urgency internally to keep him because he is the ultimate center-piece of this team and they will offer big money to keep a player of his caliber.

[SportsGuy]

They should be going to him right now and putting 5 or 6 guaranteed years on the table for 50-60M.

[mweb08]

I agree with Mackus.

One to thing to consider is he's already in his age 26 season and is controlled til his age 29 season. As a catcher, how much do we want to extend him past then and if I'm Wieters or Boras, I don't know if I want to extend past that for a year or two, I'd extend for a a really long deal like we've seen with Mauer, Braun, and Tulo or I don't think I'd extend at all so the prospect of a big free agency deal remains likely.

Using Mackus' estimate for arb years, we have 3/25, which takes him to his age 29 season. Now lets add 5 years to take him to his age 34 season. So lets just say 8/100 by adding 75M for those 5 years. Would you guys support that? Would Wieters go for it? That's a lot of money and security for a guy who has yet to become a superstar and plays a position that carries a lot of injury and decline risk.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree with Mackus.

One to thing to consider is he's already in his age 26 season and is controlled til his age 29 season. As a catcher, how much do we want to extend him past then and if I'm Wieters or Boras, I don't know if I want to extend past that for a year or two, I'd extend for a a really long deal like we've seen with Mauer, Braun, and Tulo or I don't think I'd extend at all so the prospect of a big free agency deal remains likely.

Using Mackus' estimate for arb years, we have 3/25, which takes him to his age 29 season. Now lets add 5 years to take him to his age 34 season. So lets just say 8/100 by adding 75M for those 5 years. Would you guys support that? Would Wieters go for it? That's a lot of money and security for a guy who has yet to become a superstar and plays a position that carries a lot of injury and decline risk.

Key point here. Wieters, if he is interested in a mega deal, needs to hit the FA market before he starts displaying visible signs of decline. It is not in his best financial interested to hit the FA market for the first time at 33.

[Mackus]

Using Mackus' estimate for arb years, we have 3/25, which takes him to his age 29 season. Now lets add 5 years to take him to his age 34 season. So lets just say 8/100 by adding 75M for those 5 years. Would you guys support that? Would Wieters go for it? That's a lot of money and security for a guy who has yet to become a superstar and plays a position that carries a lot of injury and decline risk.

I agree the only way he extends is if he gets some big time stability on the back end, rather than sign for a year or two and then try to cash in big time as a ~32ish year old catcher.

I also think that I would sign him to that type of deal if he's open to it. It's certainly a big risk, but if he hits like we hope he will, he'll be worth several times what he'll be paid for the early part of the deal and still useful even if he's not worth every penny as a 1B or DH if he has to move off of catcher for the last couple years.

If he struggles and ends up not being worth anywhere near the contract, well then we were probably going to be bad anyways, so we're not really any worse off overall. Also, unless we extend Jones or sign a big FA, we aren't going to have (m)any guys making big time money in the middle and later years of an 8-year contract for Wieters. Nobody else on the team still in the service time area really seems like we'll need to lock them up to big time contracts. Maybe one or two of the young starters...maybe, and they still don't project as #1 type big time money makers.