BTW...and this isn't necessarily directed at you but I think that a random playcall there was under 50% to succeed. Sure, we could have called a better play but it just felt like GB wasgoing to stop us more times than not no matter what the call was there.
Your numbers probably aren't too far off, though I don't think it's reasonable to suggest they were more than a few ticks under 50% (not that you're necessarily doing that). 2-point conversions are successful ~48% of the time. Going from the 1 instead of the 2 should increase those odds, though I don't know exactly how much (found an ESPN article saying teams are 46/110 in recent years, which is 42%, which is surprising, though I don't know if they eliminated things that should be eliminated, like fake or busted FGs). 4th and short in general (specifically excluding goal-to-go situations for some reason) are successful about 63% of the time.
The breakeven point where it makes sense statistically would be 43% (3/7), ignoring the chances of a botched FG or PAT. Plus, even if you fail, you're more likely to get the ball back and score yourself on the next possession if the opponent starts on their own 1 compared to their own 20, so the true net break even percentage is likely even lower than that. That 42% number over recent years makes it pretty much a tossup, the odds aren't really for or against you, but rather even. It's like calling heads or tails on a coin toss.
If you think the odds of converting are higher than 42% (and I do as well as do think they were in that GB game situation), then save for rare circumstances, like late in a game where adding 3 guaranteed points takes it from a 1 to 2 possession game (or cuts it from a 2 to 1), or perhaps late in a first half where the silver lining of failing wouldn't be as beneficial, I think it makes plenty sense to be going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 instead of kicking it.
http://www.advancedn...or-2-point.html
http://www.sportsone...ticle/62665328/