345 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Find contending teams trading young, cost controlled ESTABLISHED pitchers before they get expensive and get back to me. And no, no pitcher from OAK counts, and trading away Bauer does not count either.

 

 

You didn't bring up his cost until later and it seemed unrelated, so I thought you were making a generic point about how once you find a reliable pitcher, you don't trade them until they become unreliable.  Which obviously isn't how teams operate.

 

 

Even factoring in only young, reasonably-priced guys, Ubaldo Jimenez exactly fits your criteria and was traded.  KC traded Greinke while he was still effective and cost-controlled.  Oakland and TB certainly should count, and both have traded away young pitching before it gets to market-rates.

[JeremyStrain]

You didn't bring up his cost until later and it seemed unrelated, so I thought you were making a generic point about how once you find a reliable pitcher, you don't trade them until they become unreliable.  Which obviously isn't how teams operate.

 

 

Even factoring in only young, reasonably-priced guys, Ubaldo Jimenez exactly fits your criteria and was traded.  KC traded Greinke while he was still effective and cost-controlled.  Oakland and TB certainly should count, and both have traded away young pitching before it gets to market-rates.

 

I did bring up cost, you gotta read all the posts.

 

Jiminez was going into his 6th year of service when he was traded. He made almost $3m his last year in COL and there has been suspicion around the league that they knew something negative about him that CLE didn't know when they traded for him, hence why he went straight to poop.

 

Grienke was making $7.25m his last year with KC and made over $13m when he was with MIL and was a year from FA.

 

OAK and TB are unique in the sense that they don't have the money so they ship out players earlier than other teams in order to keep a constant flow of prospects coming in waves. Even TB tries to hold to guys as long as they can before they deal them, where Beane would trade anyone anytime if he thought he'd get a package of players. They skew the results.

[Mackus]

Jimenez was traded in the middle of 2011 making $2.8M, was under contract for 2012 at $4.75M, and had options for '13 and '14 for $5.75M and $8M.  That's very reasonable for a guy who was 3rd in CY the previous year with multiple good seasons before that, even if he was having a tough first half of 2011.  He absolutely fits your criteria.

 

And, if Colorado knew something about him, that's exactly part of my point.  Teams trade guys away when they think their future performance won't be as valuable as the combination of salary relief and talent they'd get in return.  If inside knowledge makes them think the guy is going to struggle in the future even if they haven't had many troubles yet, that's a huge part of that equation.

 

2/$20M is very cheap for a 27 y/o guy a year removed from being the Cy Young Award winner, so Greinke counts, too.

 

Teams trade away guys when they think the players and salary relief they get in return is more valuable than the performance the guy would give them going forward (which sometimes is because they think the guy is due to regress).  Sometimes that doesn't happen until the guy gets really expensive.  But sometimes it happens while they are still inexpensive.

[JeremyStrain]

Jimenez was traded in the middle of 2011 making $2.8M, was under contract for 2012 at $4.75M, and had options for '13 and '14 for $5.75M and $8M.  That's very reasonable for a guy who was 3rd in CY the previous year with multiple good seasons before that, even if he was having a tough first half of 2011.  He absolutely fits your criteria.

 

And, if Colorado knew something about him, that's exactly part of my point.  Teams trade guys away when they think their future performance won't be as valuable as the combination of salary relief and talent they'd get in return.  If inside knowledge makes them think the guy is going to struggle in the future even if they haven't had many troubles yet, that's a huge part of that equation.

 

2/$20M is very cheap for a 27 y/o guy a year removed from being the Cy Young Award winner, so Greinke counts, too.

 

Teams trade away guys when they think the players and salary relief they get in return is more valuable than the performance the guy would give them going forward (which sometimes is because they think the guy is due to regress).  Sometimes that doesn't happen until the guy gets really expensive.  But sometimes it happens while they are still inexpensive.

 

They didn't trade him away thinking he'd be good for CLE, they traded him away (and shocked everyone when they did) because they knew he was about to implode and they didn't want to be left holding the bag. That's far different trading someone because you HAVE to, not because you want to trade some youth for youth.

 

$10m/year is much more like market rate, which is not what we are talking about here, in the direct comparison you'd be comparing Tillman at minimum salary to Grienke at $7.5m.

 

Garza might have been a closer comp being traded not only at min salary, but at $3.5m and controllable for a couple more years too. The stats are even half way similar to Tillman's over the past year or so (if this is legit). But then again, that's the exception, not the norm, and TB was involved and we know how tight their money is. (Price is a goner this offseason).

[Mackus]

My point is that teams, even contending ones, occasionally deal away effective and reasonably priced starting pitching.  When they do it, it's because they think what they are getting back is going to be more valuable to them (considering production and payroll flexibility) than what they are giving up (like with any trade).

[Matt]

Yeah, ignore the numbers associated with each player. Easily put, I'll trade 4 years of Tillman being team controlled for the cost and upgrade of a Shields or Masterson.

I don't think anyone is saying they wouldn't do that.