127 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sports Guy and I had a discussion about this on Facebook but I thought I would come here and post my thoughts.

Good post, it's always good to see you here.

You might be interested in this thread on Conference Realignment (http://baltimorespor....php?f=8&t=3542)

[bnickle]

Sports Guy and I had a discussion about this on Facebook but I thought I would come here and post my thoughts.

I really think K is bitter that Maryland is leaving, because it signals the beginning of the end for the ACC. There are ways the ACC can remain a viable league, but I don't see it being on a par with the Big 10, Big XII, SEC and Pac-12 in 5-10 years. Ultimately I don't think that the $50 million Maryland buyout is going to be an obstacle, but I would also be shocked if that is upheld in court. And when it's not, things will start happening relatively quickly.

First off, I do agree with SG that if, by some miracle, the ACC suffers no more defections, the league is better off with Syracuse/Pitt/Louisville than it is with Maryland. But you had two of those three with Maryland, and I think the idea that Louisville is more desirable than the DC/Baltimore market that Maryland brings is laughable. It's a historically better basketball program, yes (though not by leaps and bounds). And it's better right now. But football is fairly comparable, and the TV market (DC 9th, Baltimore 26th, Louisville 50th in the nation) is not even close. And those are, for better or worse, the things that matter most.

I am one who does not buy into the Notre Dame partnership being a big benefit to the ACC. Notre Dame basketball is solid, if unspectacular. But just the fact that it is playing five football games a year against ACC teams is not enough to convince me that it's good for the league. Notre Dame was already playing a few ACC teams a year (Maryland, UNC, Wake come to mind in recent years). Their refusal to go all-in on the Big East helped lead to that league's downfall, and I'm willing to bet it will do the same to the ACC.

A key thing to remember is that realignment is not over, and there are only so many quality athletic programs that aren't locked into a major conference. Outside of the ACC, I can really only think of UConn and Temple that are particularly desirable (not counting the Catholic 7 type schools that don't have football). The Big XII, Big Ten and SEC are not going to stand pat as they are currently comprised, so their new members are going to have to come from somewhere. Their first choice in almost all cases would be an ACC school (I'm counting the soon-to-be ACC schools in that).

FSU and Clemson are bigtime football schools. They may have a basketball run here and there, but they are not and never will be basketball powers. The ACC does nothing for them, even with the additions its brought in. The Big XII needs to get back up to 12 teams to have a conference championship game. It has already expanded east with WVU, and these two make a lot of sense for that league. I think if Maryland gets out of the $50 million, these two are as good as gone. Even if Maryland doesn't, it's likely that the Big XII will offer enough of a sweetheart that these football schools will go for it.

With them gone, the ACC loses two of its three biggest football powers. The other, Virginia Tech (as well as schools such as Georgia Tech, Miami and NC State) is not likely to sit idly, by, but I'll get back to them later.

The Big Ten is not going to stop at 14. They'll go to 16 at least, and possibly as many as 20. But assuming they go to 16, they are a conference that cares about academics and, to an extent, geography as much as any other bigtime athletic conference out there. The Big Ten has a rule about having schools in contiguous states. Now that Maryland is in the fold, that opens them up to two of the most prestigious academic institutions in bigtime college sports - Virginia and North Carolina. I believe UNC to be the big prize in all of this. They have solid football, blue blood elite basketball, strong all-around athletics, outstanding academics and a strong television market (Charlotte 24, Raleigh/Durham 27). Virginia doesn't have a lot that really makes it stand out, but it is certainly a worthwhile institution to have part of a conference. Both are part of the Association of American Universities, which the Big Ten cares a lot about.

I think Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Miami and Boston College are all possibilities for additional Big Ten expansion, but for the time being, I'm going to assume they stop at 16. Although if they can ever get Notre Dame, they will. Regardless of how many teams they have in the fold at that point, they will always be interested in Notre Dame if they can get it. Which is why I feel the addition of Notre Dame does nothing positive to help the stability of the ACC.

I agree with the poster who said that UNC is the ACC. But when it becomes clear that Maryland is not the only defector, UNC also isn't dumb. They will make sure that they are in a good position, and the Big Ten has the deep pockets to bring them aboard. Once UNC is gone, the ACC as K envisions it is dead. NC State will have no reason not to join the SEC, which has two slots open, and can also bring Virginia Tech aboard since they are no longer tied to UVA.

The ACC needs to continue to be proactive to survive. Schools like UConn and Temple should be priorities now - get a bigger piece of the NYC and Boston markets, get into Philadelphia, and add to the conference's reputation for great basketball. I don't think those additions will necessarily keep the defections I've mentioned above from happening (not good enough football), but maybe it keeps the league afloat despite those.

Of course, if the Big Ten decides it wants to go to 18-20, and raids the ACC again, then the league either will have to deal with substantially watered down quality (adding the likes of USF, UCF and Tulane) or will join the Catholic 7 to form, again, a strong basketball conference with little to no relevant football. They'd be in some limbo between the bigtime conferences and the Atlantic 10.

This has been a long post. I'll sum up some basics of the future college landscape, at least in the East/Midwest, as I see them here:

ACC: Duke, Wake, Georgia Tech*, Miami*, Boston College*, Syracuse*, Pittsburgh, Louisville UConn, Temple, Notre Dame**
Very strong basketball. Probably not the best, but good. Football is not great, but not a complete laughingstock. *candidate for further Big Ten expansion **partial member, candidate for further Big Ten expansion

Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina, Virginia
Probably the best overall basketball league, and in any given year a top football league

Big XII: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia, Florida State, Clemson
Solid football, potential to be the best conference in any given year. Respectable basketball with Kansas as a cornerstone

SEC: Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Virginia Tech, NC State
Generally the best football conference. Likely to improve basketball with NC State, football with Virginia Tech. Basketball generally headlined by Kentucky, Florida

Good post. You're naive if you think ACC isn't going to be raided again. They'll always be an ACC but it's not going to be one of the mega conferences in 5 -10 years. It'll be Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 and maybe the Big 12.

[Mackus]

I really think K is bitter that Maryland is leaving, because it signals the beginning of the end for the ACC. There are ways the ACC can remain a viable league, but I don't see it being on a par with the Big 10, Big XII, SEC and Pac-12 in 5-10 years. Ultimately I don't think that the $50 million Maryland buyout is going to be an obstacle, but I would also be shocked if that is upheld in court. And when it's not, things will start happening relatively quickly.

Awesome to hear from you, Sam.

I agree about K being bitter because he's reading the tea leaves. I think he knows, or at least fears, that if the ACC dissolves or becomes a shell of what it once was, Duke's lack of a respectable football program could leave it on the short end of a lot of these realignments. I really think they could end up in either a very stripped down ACC like you outlined in your post or even teaming up with the Catholic 7 or however many it was from the Big 10 and forming a basketball only conference (at the D-1 level). That conference could be excellent at basketball if they can support an economic model that doesn't bring in bowl game revenue.

On the other hand, he could be done coaching by the time the ACC gets into that sort of a state, since I don't think it will be overnight, but rather over the next 5-10 years.

[Chris B]

Is it true that the NCAA considers basketball to be your home conference? Meaning, you cannot have a basketball-only member of a conference? (I.e. all of your non revenues and basketball have to be in the same conference)

I've read this many times in various message boards, so I'm not sure what the actual rule is.

[BustaJ2632]

Is it true that the NCAA considers basketball to be your home conference? Meaning, you cannot have a basketball-only member of a conference? (I.e. all of your non revenues and basketball have to be in the same conference)

I've read this many times in various message boards, so I'm not sure what the actual rule is.

To be honest I have no idea what rule you're referring to, but I know of several instances when non-revenue sports are in different conferences than basketball (or football). Penn State lax is in the CAA, as is St. Joe's lax. Ohio State lax is in the Great Western Lacrosse League. Wrestling programs are often not in the same league as their basketball counterparts. Same with ice hockey. Where I used to work, Hartford, the golf team is in America Sky where everything else is in America East (despite the similarity in name, the conferences have nothing to do with each other).

[Chris B]

To be honest I have no idea what rule you're referring to, but I know of several instances when non-revenue sports are in different conferences than basketball (or football). Penn State lax is in the CAA, as is St. Joe's lax. Ohio State lax is in the Great Western Lacrosse League. Wrestling programs are often not in the same league as their basketball counterparts. Same with ice hockey. Where I used to work, Hartford, the golf team is in America Sky where everything else is in America East (despite the similarity in name, the conferences have nothing to do with each other).

Here's the (possibly) relevant rule:

20.02.5 Multisport Conference. A Division I multisport conference shall satisfy the requirements of this
section.
20.02.5.1 Minimum Number of Members. A multisport conference shall be composed of at least seven active Division I members. The member conference shall include at least seven active Division I members that sponsor both men’s and women’s basketball.

Basically, a lot of forum-posters believe that a school cannot be a full member of a conference unless it plays men's and women's basketball in the conference. Associate memberships are obviously still being done, but that isn't a school's "home" conference where they get votes and TV revenue from.

But IF this is not the correct interpretation, Gonzaga has to be a candidate for the C7 league.

[BustaJ2632]

Here's the (possibly) relevant rule:



Basically, a lot of forum-posters believe that a school cannot be a full member of a conference unless it plays men's and women's basketball in the conference. Associate memberships are obviously still being done, but that isn't a school's "home" conference where they get votes and TV revenue from.

But IF this is not the correct interpretation, Gonzaga has to be a candidate for the C7 league.

So you're saying that Gonzaga would just be a basketball member in the C7? Even that seems highly unlikely given the extreme travel. But certainly adding its other sports to that league, given no football, would be a very heavy burden on the athletic budget of Gonzaga, let alone the schools that would have to travel out there.

I think a school that I haven't seen much buzz about that makes a ton of sense for the C7 is Richmond. Private school, new state for the league, and also football that could jump to 1-A level (along with Villanova) if it made sense for the C7 to merge with the remnants of the ACC down the road.

[Chris B]

So you're saying that Gonzaga would just be a basketball member in the C7? Even that seems highly unlikely given the extreme travel. But certainly adding its other sports to that league, given no football, would be a very heavy burden on the athletic budget of Gonzaga, let alone the schools that would have to travel out there.

I think a school that I haven't seen much buzz about that makes a ton of sense for the C7 is Richmond. Private school, new state for the league, and also football that could jump to 1-A level (along with Villanova) if it made sense for the C7 to merge with the remnants of the ACC down the road.

I don't think it happens either but I think Gonzaga is one of the top 3 choices if the league is only worried about getting the top basketball schools. I hope they looked at the potential financials for bringing in Gonzaga and not just say "oh they're in Washington...pass." Same goes for Creighton.

Gun to my head, I bet the C7 will choose Xavier, Butler, SLU, Dayton, and Richmond. I don't want that but that's what I expect.