13 replies to this topic

[ChaosLex]

On whether Michael Bourn could land in the Orioles' laps:
"I thought about it. It'll be in the middle of the night sometimes and I'll get up and text Dan (Duquette), 'What do you think about Bourn? Is that good enough for our 24th pick? How does it fit?' It's one thing to get somebody, but how does it fit? Who does it affect? Who does it take away from? What does it allow you to do? I've got to tell you, I've got a good feeling about Nolan Reimold, I've got a good feeling about Brian Roberts. I'm not going to sit around, woe is me. Nolan was getting ready to have a big year. He really was. I've been talking and texting with him back and forth. He's so excited. He keeps saying, 'Boy, people are forgetting about me and selling me short.' He's got a little edge on and it's a good mentality. Manny's got some things to prove. He doesn't know it yet, but he hasn't made our club yet."

http://www.masnsport...surprising.html

Interesting that Showalter has spoken to DD about Bourn. I mean, he seems to poo-poo the idea with his comments about Reimold and such, but I just thought it was interesting. What say you?

[LanceRinker]

I think Bourn is the one player left on the market that would be worth our 24th pick. Normally I'd say no, don't give up the draft pick because you're so thin with position player prospects but Bourn would solve a few different problems with the makeup of the lineup. Speed at the top of the lineup (real speed), an ability to lay down a bunt for a base hit and move runners, best defensive CF'er outside of Trout, and by all accounts he's a great team guy.

Plus, it would allow us to use McLouth against RHP's at any OF spot to give our other regulars some rest and Reimold could be settled into the DH spot. No need to platoon Betemit and Valencia there.

[Mackus]

I think Bourn is the one player left on the market that would be worth our 24th pick. Normally I'd say no, don't give up the draft pick because you're so thin with position player prospects but Bourn would solve a few different problems with the makeup of the lineup. Speed at the top of the lineup (real speed), an ability to lay down a bunt for a base hit and move runners, best defensive CF'er outside of Trout, and by all accounts he's a great team guy.

I agree. I have zero expectation of it happening, and it's not even something I'd doggedly pursue, but if he fell into our laps even at the price of our 1st round pick I think it could be a really good addition for the team, assuming they would move Adam to LF. If they put Bourn in LF, then I don't like the move.

[clapdiddy]

I agree. I have zero expectation of it happening, and it's not even something I'd doggedly pursue, but if he fell into our laps even at the price of our 1st round pick I think it could be a really good addition for the team, assuming they would move Adam to LF. If they put Bourn in LF, then I don't like the move.

This move will never happen because they aren't going to move Jones to LF.

[JeremyStrain]

Bourn is such a terrible investment though. Guys that make their living with their legs fall off faster than others, and if you remember Bourn when he came up, he was fast, and had 0 power, for him to spike last year and hit 9 HR is a hmmmm moment, as well as the high K totals. Something the team is trying to get away from.

[mweb08]

Bourn is such a terrible investment though. Guys that make their living with their legs fall off faster than others, and if you remember Bourn when he came up, he was fast, and had 0 power, for him to spike last year and hit 9 HR is a hmmmm moment, as well as the high K totals. Something the team is trying to get away from.

I'm not sure that's actually a consistent rule. Athetic guys often age better than do players with old player skills.

Either way, he may be able to be had for a relatively short-term commitment.

[LanceRinker]

Bourn is such a terrible investment though. Guys that make their living with their legs fall off faster than others, and if you remember Bourn when he came up, he was fast, and had 0 power, for him to spike last year and hit 9 HR is a hmmmm moment, as well as the high K totals. Something the team is trying to get away from.

He must've been using the "cream" and the "clear" to put up massive power numbers like that.

All that's happened is that he's gotten a little more muscle put on him. Besides, even Adam Kennedy can walk into 9 homeruns a season.

[Mackus]

Bourn is such a terrible investment though. Guys that make their living with their legs fall off faster than others, and if you remember Bourn when he came up, he was fast, and had 0 power, for him to spike last year and hit 9 HR is a hmmmm moment, as well as the high K totals. Something the team is trying to get away from.

I think that's a pretty inflammatory accusation with nothing to back it up besides his HR and K totals. Maybe he struck out more because he was swinging harder? Would make sense for a guy in his walk year.

As far as speed guys falling off, I do generally agree with that, but Bourn is 30 next year and is likely only going to get a 3-year deal at this point. 4 years max. So we're talking ages 30-33. I'm not concerned about him losing so much speed in that time frame that he's not the same type of player.

He's been worth between 3.0 and 6.0 WAR (Bb-Ref) the past four seasons. That's pretty consistently good. I think it only makes sense to target him if you play him in CF and then shift Jones to LF, McLouth to 4th OF, and then go with the Betemit/Reimold platoon at DH.

[JeremyStrain]

He must've been using the "cream" and the "clear" to put up massive power numbers like that.

All that's happened is that he's gotten a little more muscle put on him. Besides, even Adam Kennedy can walk into 9 homeruns a season.

When a guy is consistently putting up 1-2 HR a year, and then suddenly quadruples his output while the doubles stay the same, yeah it's a red flag. Just because guys aren't hitting 20-30 HR doesn't mean that something isn't wrong. You just don't see guys suddenly at 31 years old spike like that out of the blue. Now if he had trended up in the doubles first, and then some of the doubles turned into HR, sure. But he was still mid-20s in doubles like he usually had been. Maybe it's nothing, but going into a FA year, and a crazy spike like that, raises a little red flag for me. Not enough to label him and run away, but enough to get me to notice.

[JeremyStrain]

I think that's a pretty inflammatory accusation with nothing to back it up besides his HR and K totals. Maybe he struck out more because he was swinging harder? Would make sense for a guy in his walk year.

As far as speed guys falling off, I do generally agree with that, but Bourn is 30 next year and is likely only going to get a 3-year deal at this point. 4 years max. So we're talking ages 30-33. I'm not concerned about him losing so much speed in that time frame that he's not the same type of player.

He's been worth between 3.0 and 6.0 WAR (Bb-Ref) the past four seasons. That's pretty consistently good. I think it only makes sense to target him if you play him in CF and then shift Jones to LF, McLouth to 4th OF, and then go with the Betemit/Reimold platoon at DH.

I didn't accuse, I stopped short of that. I said that it was enough to get me to take notice. Not saying that I'm ready to label him, but if you have a player that puts up norm numbers for 5 years and then all of a sudden ONE category spikes without others you should look at it.

The thing that makes me look at it is that all through the minors he never really had power either. Its not like he put up 10 HR here or there and just not as much at the ML level. Doubles are usually a big precursor to power, and the doubles level stayed consistent. Again, not accusing him of anything, but I will be watching this year to see how his numbers play out.

Also, on the speed thing, look at guys like Coleman, Lofton and Raines, and see where their speed numbers started to break off, right around 31-33. If you are signing this guy for big money (he's not going to get the huge deal he wanted, but he's still going to get 8 figures per year and a couple years) you don't want him slowing down in the middle of the deal. That is a huge reason why teams are staying away.

[Mackus]

When a guy is consistently putting up 1-2 HR a year, and then suddenly quadruples his output while the doubles stay the same, yeah it's a red flag. Just because guys aren't hitting 20-30 HR doesn't mean that something isn't wrong. You just don't see guys suddenly at 31 years old spike like that out of the blue. Now if he had trended up in the doubles first, and then some of the doubles turned into HR, sure. But he was still mid-20s in doubles like he usually had been. Maybe it's nothing, but going into a FA year, and a crazy spike like that, raises a little red flag for me. Not enough to label him and run away, but enough to get me to notice.

He hit 5 HRs in 2008 in only 514 PAs. So 9 in 700+ PAs isn't that far out of line with that previous production.

Also, 5 of the HRs came in a 2-week stretch from May 22nd to June 7th. It's impossible that he was just crazy hot then and hit them all in bunches? Because the 4 HRs in ~650 PAs outside of that stretch wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Maybe he just squared the ball up really well for a couple weeks, he only had two 2B and a 3B in that stretch otherwise, so maybe he just squeezed some of those XBH over the fence.

I know everyone is a suspect, and it wouldn't shock me to find out that anybody is using, but it's pretty aggressive to throw stuff like that out there without any actual evidence.

[JeremyStrain]

He hit 5 HRs in 2008 in only 514 PAs. So 9 in 700+ PAs isn't that far out of line with that previous production.

Also, 5 of the HRs came in a 2-week stretch from May 22nd to June 7th. It's impossible that he was just crazy hot then and hit them all in bunches? Because the 4 HRs in ~650 PAs outside of that stretch wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Maybe he just squared the ball up really well for a couple weeks, he only had two 2B and a 3B in that stretch otherwise, so maybe he just squeezed some of those XBH over the fence.

I know everyone is a suspect, and it wouldn't shock me to find out that anybody is using, but it's pretty aggressive to throw stuff like that out there without any actual evidence.

Again, no one said he was or might be using. It is very possible that is all that happened, but if he figured out how to do it once, and then never again in his career that doesn't show the best professional development on his part either. This is all he does for his life, you'd think if he managed to hit 5 HR in a week he would be focused on watching tape and figuring out what he did in that week wouldn't you? Or at least hope he would. If he's not interested and just says eh, it is what it is, that would bother me more than him using. If that power is IN there to do that he should be doing everything he can to bring it out. At least a little bit, to hit 5 HR in a week you would think that he's at least got the ability to hit 5-7 HR per year, which aside from that one year he hasn't shown. This is why it raised a red flag for me, not because oh, he must be a steroid user, like everyone wants to go when you mention output things like this. There are multiple levels of things to look at when you see anomaly numbers, and I want to know WHY it was an anomaly at his age in a walk year if I'm giving him a ton of money.

[Mackus]

I think you're gonna be hard-pressed to find a why to answer the question of how he happened to hit 5 HRs in two weeks when he typically doesn't hit 5 in a season. There is no chance the answer is steroids or anything performance enhancing. Doesn't mean he wasn't using, but there is obviously not such a stark change in performance over such a short period of time unless we're talking about Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of drugs. I also don't think it's really a situation where you'll find one thing to point to. I don't think it's such an unreasonable thing that he had an amazing couple of weeks with the power stroke. It happens. Sure the odds aren't good of it happening specifically to him, but it happens to someone every season, this year it just happened to be him.

I wouldn't expect more than 2-3 HRs from him next year, and I'd still sign him. I certainly don't look at his unprecedented outburst as a negative. It's not expected production going forward, but I don't think it's reasonable to say, "hey he hit 5 HRs this month, why can't he do it every month...he must be stupid or lazy". I know that's an over-exaggeration of your point, but I still don't really see how you can view this as something that would make you less likely to sign him.

[JeremyStrain]

I think you're gonna be hard-pressed to find a why to answer the question of how he happened to hit 5 HRs in two weeks when he typically doesn't hit 5 in a season. There is no chance the answer is steroids or anything performance enhancing. Doesn't mean he wasn't using, but there is obviously not such a stark change in performance over such a short period of time unless we're talking about Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of drugs. I also don't think it's really a situation where you'll find one thing to point to. I don't think it's such an unreasonable thing that he had an amazing couple of weeks with the power stroke. It happens. Sure the odds aren't good of it happening specifically to him, but it happens to someone every season, this year it just happened to be him.

I wouldn't expect more than 2-3 HRs from him next year, and I'd still sign him. I certainly don't look at his unprecedented outburst as a negative. It's not expected production going forward, but I don't think it's reasonable to say, "hey he hit 5 HRs this month, why can't he do it every month...he must be stupid or lazy". I know that's an over-exaggeration of your point, but I still don't really see how you can view this as something that would make you less likely to sign him.

Its easy for me to do because I wouldn't sign him at all either way.