Camden Depot: The Yr After Having Good Luck: O's 2013
#2
Posted 11 January 2013 - 02:13 PM
#3
Posted 11 January 2013 - 04:02 PM
Right.Decent article. The problem is, everybody already knows this, whether they admit it or not. The argument "in defense" of us repeating 2012 is that Pythagorean record simply doesn't capture the je ne sais quoi of the genre-defying 2012 Baltimore Orioles: e.g. that our elite bullpen will a) not regress (no evidence given) and b) caused us to sustainably win all our close games (no evidence given). So, while it's laid out well, it's preaching to the choir, and won't convince any non-believers.
I remember those Diamondbacks teams--specifically the '07 club--and people said the same things: great bullpen, great manager.
The next season the bullpen ERA was only .14 runs higher but the team finished right on their projection (82-80). Then in 2009 the bullpen collapsed and they fired Melvin a month into the season.
#4
Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:20 PM
#5
Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:49 PM
What he said.Eh, a lot of people do not understand the issue and many misconceptions remain (like the guy who commented on the article on the Depot site or Melewski or lots of folks).
#6
Posted 11 January 2013 - 06:03 PM
#7
Posted 11 January 2013 - 08:17 PM
#8
Posted 11 January 2013 - 08:28 PM
I also understand that the O's team and players that played well in the second half may not be able to sustain that for most of or all of next season so there would still be a good chance of regression from the 93win team.
I do think the team is .500+ team next season but likely not 90+win team.
#9
Posted 11 January 2013 - 09:13 PM
It'd be a lot easier to call things if they had a team full of consistent low-achieving players instead of a team full of boom or bust players.
#10
Posted 12 January 2013 - 05:40 PM
Of course there's potential for another great run. That potential was there last year, when things did break very well for us, despite a mediocre team on paper. But that's not what projections are about.
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