9 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: The Yr After Having Good Luck: O's 2013
http://camdendepot.b...ck-orioles.html

[SrMeowMeow]

Decent article. The problem is, everybody already knows this, whether they admit it or not. The argument "in defense" of us repeating 2012 is that Pythagorean record simply doesn't capture the je ne sais quoi of the genre-defying 2012 Baltimore Orioles: e.g. that our elite bullpen will a) not regress (no evidence given) and b) caused us to sustainably win all our close games (no evidence given). So, while it's laid out well, it's preaching to the choir, and won't convince any non-believers.

[DJ MC]

Decent article. The problem is, everybody already knows this, whether they admit it or not. The argument "in defense" of us repeating 2012 is that Pythagorean record simply doesn't capture the je ne sais quoi of the genre-defying 2012 Baltimore Orioles: e.g. that our elite bullpen will a) not regress (no evidence given) and b) caused us to sustainably win all our close games (no evidence given). So, while it's laid out well, it's preaching to the choir, and won't convince any non-believers.

Right.

I remember those Diamondbacks teams--specifically the '07 club--and people said the same things: great bullpen, great manager.

The next season the bullpen ERA was only .14 runs higher but the team finished right on their projection (82-80). Then in 2009 the bullpen collapsed and they fired Melvin a month into the season.

[Jon Shepherd]

Eh, a lot of people do not understand the issue and many misconceptions remain (like the guy who commented on the article on the Depot site or Melewski or lots of folks).

[SportsGuy]

Eh, a lot of people do not understand the issue and many misconceptions remain (like the guy who commented on the article on the Depot site or Melewski or lots of folks).

What he said.

[SrMeowMeow]

I guess a better way to state my point of view is that the whole run differential thing is so simple and obvious that if someone doesn't understand it already, they're either a) not familiar with it at all (and this article might be useful) or b) are the type of person who just isn't going to be convinced by math or stats (the vast majority IMO, and this article will have just as little effect as all those that came before it).

[Jon Shepherd]

The earth revolving around the sun was pretty simple, too. Sometimes you just have to chip away.

[bmoreraventerp]

I have also seen good argument from some other posters here and on OH that the team in second half, and in particular, after when Machado was called up, the team played more in line with their pythag during that period. So the hope and idea is that if the main people playing during that time plus the return of some key players that were injured for parts of the second half, such as Hammel and Markakis, are around then the team could play up to the pythag of having a contending record.

I also understand that the O's team and players that played well in the second half may not be able to sustain that for most of or all of next season so there would still be a good chance of regression from the 93win team.

I do think the team is .500+ team next season but likely not 90+win team.

[JeremyStrain]

Jon and I have differing views for sure, (it's part of what makes the Depot so interesting) but I don't really disagree with him that they look more like a lesser win team. I guess my whole take is that I think the potential is there for another good run, a lot of things would have to break right, but I think they are one of the more grey area and hard to predict teams in baseball because they have so many young developing players and so many players that have had significant injury concerns.

It'd be a lot easier to call things if they had a team full of consistent low-achieving players instead of a team full of boom or bust players.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, any team CAN have a better season. And some teams have more variance than others. But if you're trying to be objective, you can't project a team for a best-case scenario. You have to pretend you have to choose an under/over and your life is at stake re: the accuracy of your guess.

Of course there's potential for another great run. That potential was there last year, when things did break very well for us, despite a mediocre team on paper. But that's not what projections are about.