28 replies to this topic

[JTrea81]

Thought you folks might appreciate this:

http://www.oriolesan... ... 6407#p6407

[SportsGuy]

Smoak isn't close to a MOO bat right now.

Upton is obviously the best fit.

[JTrea81]

Smoak isn't close to a MOO bat right now.

Upton is obviously the best fit.

Upton has the best upside for sure, but payroll wise he's more expensive and he'll cost more in a trade, not to mention the attitude and injury issues that have affected his performance thus far. So he's a bigger risk.

Willingham could get you similar numbers, though not on the SB side, and he's signed cheaply.

In terms of what the Orioles are trying to do and how they operate, Willingham is the best fit realistically IMO.

Smoak is probably the cheapest option with the most upside in terms of players traded and $.

[SportsGuy]

Upton has the best upside for sure, but payroll wise he's more expensive and he'll cost more in a trade, not to mention the attitude and injury issues that have affected his performance thus far. So he's a bigger risk.

Willingham could get you similar numbers, though not on the SB side, and he's signed cheaply.

In terms of what the Orioles are trying to do and how they operate, Willingham is the best fit realistically IMO.

Smoak is probably the cheapest option with the most upside in terms of players traded and $.

Upton is easily the best and most accomplished player. He may cost more in terms of players but that's because he is young, very accomplished and has elite talent...he also has a very team friendly deal, even if it is 13M a year.

[DJ MC]

Upton has the best upside for sure, but payroll wise he's more expensive and he'll cost more in a trade, not to mention the attitude and injury issues that have affected his performance thus far. So he's a bigger risk.

Willingham could get you similar numbers, though not on the SB side, and he's signed cheaply.

In terms of what the Orioles are trying to do and how they operate, Willingham is the best fit realistically IMO.

Smoak is probably the cheapest option with the most upside in terms of players traded and $.

See, Smoak may be the cheapest option, but that doesn't make him the best option.

I don't think he even is the cheapest option: Morse may be cheaper. And for one year, he may be the best option.

The Orioles shouldn't be looking at that though. They should try for Upton and keep the Mariners on the back burner with Smoak and decide once they get their best offers worked out.

[dpsmith22]

Personally I am not thrilled with any of these options. They have issues to them.

Smoak hasn't even come close to proven he can hit big league pitching. We would be hoping for a "Chris Davis type" improvement. We have enough could be's.

Morse loves the trainer's table and is on his last year of his deal. I do love his opposite field power and solid BA.

Willingham would be solid but had a career year last year and his value is at all all-time high.

I love Justin Upton's tools, but if you trade for him and you get 2012 numbers, you got taken. His inconsistency pushes me away from him because of the cost.

The answer is not in this list. It's someone who we will have for years. A player to solve our 1st base issues for the future, not just tomorrow. The problem is that it appears DD would rather have 17 spare pitchers then trade a couple of them for a young bat. (not to mention he swung and missed IMO with Van Slyke.

I assume that the O's brass believe Chris Davis will be good enough at 1st so they are looking for a steal. Like Patton for Morse.

[SportsGuy]

Personally I am not thrilled with any of these options. They have issues to them.

Smoak hasn't even come close to proven he can hit big league pitching. We would be hoping for a "Chris Davis type" improvement. We have enough could be's.

Morse loves the trainer's table and is on his last year of his deal. I do love his opposite field power and solid BA.

Willingham would be solid but had a career year last year and his value is at all all-time high.

I love Justin Upton's tools, but if you trade for him and you get 2012 numbers, you got taken. His inconsistency pushes me away from him because of the cost.

The answer is not in this list. It's someone who we will have for years. A player to solve our 1st base issues for the future, not just tomorrow. The problem is that it appears DD would rather have 17 spare pitchers then trade a couple of them for a young bat. (not to mention he swung and missed IMO with Van Slyke.

I assume that the O's brass believe Chris Davis will be good enough at 1st so they are looking for a steal. Like Patton for Morse.

And if you get what he gave you in 2011, you stole him.

[dpsmith22]

SG; I usually agree with most of your thoughts.

I know your a fan of Upton and I love his talent. You have to admit he has a big risk tag around his neck. Him and his brother seem to be the same kind of player. Sadly I use the word "Head Case" and I think its justified with both of them.

You can't say i stole him cause you dunno who I have to give up to get him. Trades take awhile to determine the winner.

[SportsGuy]

SG; I usually agree with most of your thoughts.

I know your a fan of Upton and I love his talent. You have to admit he has a big risk tag around his neck. Him and his brother seem to be the same kind of player. Sadly I use the word "Head Case" and I think its justified with both of them.

You can't say i stole him cause you dunno who I have to give up to get him. Trades take awhile to determine the winner.

If he gives us a 7 WAR, we probably stole him.

And I see him as a slight risk. He should still be a 4-5 WAR player even in down years, like his brother is.

[Mackus]

If he gives us a 7 WAR, we probably stole him.

And I see him as a slight risk. He should still be a 4-5 WAR player even in down years, like his brother is.

0.7, 0.8
3.8, 4.8
1.4, 3.0
5.7, 6.4
2.1, 2.5

No way can you say he should still be worth 4-5 WAR even in down years. Two of the past three years he's been worth 3 or less, according to both B-R and Fangraphs.

He's still very young and has a ton of potential but also has the possible floor of not being any better than the can't-quite-get-you-over-the-top type of players of which we already have several. If his premium talent doesn't lead to premium production, then he's no better than Jones or Markakis or Davis or Hardy and those type guys.

I'd still strongly try to acquire him, but I don't think it's fair to say he's the safe bet for high-level production that you seem to be claiming here that he is.

[SportsGuy]

0.7, 0.8
3.8, 4.8
1.4, 3.0
5.7, 6.4
2.1, 2.5

No way can you say he should still be worth 4-5 WAR even in down years. Two of the past three years he's been worth 3 or less, according to both B-R and Fangraphs.

He's still very young and has a ton of potential but also has the possible floor of not being any better than the can't-quite-get-you-over-the-top type of players of which we already have several. If his premium talent doesn't lead to premium production, then he's no better than Jones or Markakis or Davis or Hardy and those type guys.

I'd still strongly try to acquire him, but I don't think it's fair to say he's the safe bet for high-level production that you seem to be claiming here that he is.

You are also looking at years where he was under 24.

I think, going forward, he is at least a 4 WAR player and should be much better than that.

[dpsmith22]

your probably right, but I don't see it as slight.
BTW, heart, hustle, playing hurt, and being a team player wins championships, not WAR. Not gonna go on a soapbox about it.

-He has alternated between either 17 or 25+ homer seasons.
-He has been slightly injured in 2/4 of his 4 years in the majors.

I call that a big risk considering the players it would take to get him.

That being said, I would love to have him.

[Mackus]

You are also looking at years where he was under 24.

I think, going forward, he is at least a 4 WAR player and should be much better than that.

I realize that he has been very young and putting up really solid levels for those ages. But you can't say that he's a very safe bet to put up numbers that would be the 2nd best of his career even if he is having a down year. Even factoring in progression, that just doesn't add up.

The upside is tremendous. And the floor is still quite good. But the floor isn't 4-5 WAR. The floor is 2-3 WAR, IMO. The floor is high enough, and the upside attainable enough, that you've got no concerns about the money owed to him, the concern is that if he says closer to the floor than the ceiling, did you give up too much to get him? I think for the packages we have been discussing, that the chances of getting production closer to the ceiling are well worth the price to find out.

[Mackus]

BTW, heart, hustle, playing hurt, and being a team player wins championships, not WAR.

They are the same thing, just expressed differently.

[SammyBirdland]

I just hope we do something. We desperately need another bat. I'd be happy with anyone on that list. But, I'm starting to think we're rolling into the season with what we got.

[dpsmith22]

They are the same thing, just expressed differently.

Not true.

No where in WAR's 6 catagories does it account for hitting a groundball to second to get a runner to third. Something Adam Jones didn't do on a couple occasions in the playoffs.

No where does it include someone like Reimold/Mclouth hustling to first to cause the shortstops bobble to be an error.

Those actions aren't taken into consideration AND if they are, they have to score and drive someone in. That hustle may not have scored a run, but it sends a message. All of WAR is based on physical things; takes more than that to win a championship.

Not saying it isn't useful because it is. Its just used as a be all end all, its not.

[Mackus]

Not true.

No where in WAR's 6 catagories does it account for hitting a groundball to second to get a runner to third. Something Adam Jones didn't do on a couple occasions in the playoffs.

No where does it include someone like Reimold/Mclouth hustling to first to cause the shortstops bobble to be an error.

Those actions aren't taken into consideration AND if they are, they have to score and drive someone in. That hustle may not have scored a run, but it sends a message. All of WAR is based on physical things; takes more than that to win a championship.

Not saying it isn't useful because it is. Its just used as a be all end all, its not.

No. We are using WAR here to describe the general level of player.

A 3-WAR player is a solid starting regular. 4-5 WAR is a borderline all-star. 6-7 WAR is a super-star. 1-2 WAR is a role player. It's a simple and easy-to-understand way to describe players. You don't have to know the full equation, that's not what we're talking about. This isn't a dissertation on the exact formula or criteria for determining what a player's WAR is. We're just using WAR instead of saying "better than average OF but not quite an AS" or other such description. It's shorthand.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't care about MOO bats. I care about raising team OBP.

[DJ MC]

Not true.

No where in WAR's 6 catagories does it account for hitting a groundball to second to get a runner to third. Something Adam Jones didn't do on a couple occasions in the playoffs.

No where does it include someone like Reimold/Mclouth hustling to first to cause the shortstops bobble to be an error.

Those actions aren't taken into consideration AND if they are, they have to score and drive someone in. That hustle may not have scored a run, but it sends a message. All of WAR is based on physical things; takes more than that to win a championship.

Not saying it isn't useful because it is. Its just used as a be all end all, its not.

You know what it takes to win a championship: scoring more runs than your opponents. The ability to score runs and prevent opponents from scoring runs is what is measured in WAR. There are some things that get overlooked, but they tend to be very specific things that are rare enough to not factor into the discussion.

Like your scenario, for example. "Hitting a groundball to second to get the runner to third" isn't a skill; its the best possible outcome of a bad situation (making an out).