23 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

MIer in his low 30s ready to sign a big contract? No thanks.

Cano is really good but for how long?

Say to come here it takes an 8-year deal. How good will he be at 36? 37? 38?

I'd be pretty confident in him for the next several years. Obviously with any long term deal like that, you can't turn it down just because you don't expect the player to live up to the final year or two. If you dismiss big contracts on that principle, then you'll never sign a major free agent (which isn't necessarily a bad strategy).

I think it's pretty likely that Cano can still be worth close to $25M a year (4-5 WAR, maybe less as contracts get bigger and bigger) as a 35-36 year old. His offense is so far above average at 2B (league-wide 701 OPS last year) that he can fall off quite a bit and still be well above league average at the position. And his defense would have to fall a long ways to not be suitable there, as well.

[SportsGuy]

Say to come here it takes an 8-year deal. How good will he be at 36? 37? 38?

I'd be pretty confident in him for the next several years. Obviously with any long term deal like that, you can't turn it down just because you don't expect the player to live up to the final year or two. If you dismiss big contracts on that principle, then you'll never sign a major free agent (which isn't necessarily a bad strategy).

I think it's pretty likely that Cano can still be worth close to $25M a year (4-5 WAR, maybe less as contracts get bigger and bigger) as a 35-36 year old. His offense is so far above average at 2B (league-wide 701 OPS last year) that he can fall off quite a bit and still be well above league average at the position. And his defense would have to fall a long ways to not be suitable there, as well.

MIers have a tendancy to really fall off in their low to mid 30s. Cano may be an exception, that's possible...But in no way am I giving him 6+ years at 20+ million a year to find out.

[Mackus]

MIers have a tendancy to really fall off in their low to mid 30s. Cano may be an exception, that's possible...But in no way am I giving him 6+ years at 20+ million a year to find out.

A couple years ago I would have whole-heartedly agreed that the risk isn't worth the reward. Now that we appear to be much closer to contending and have a much stronger base, I'd be more willing to take on long-term risk if it gives us great production in the short term.

I don't think this is in any way a realistic conversation, but if Angelos opened up the wallet a bit, I'd be very interested in adding Cano to the group of young talent we've got here now. Especially if it also coincided with or followed trading Schoop in a deal for someone like Upton or Porcello.

[SportsGuy]

A couple years ago I would have whole-heartedly agreed that the risk isn't worth the reward. Now that we appear to be much closer to contending and have a much stronger base, I'd be more willing to take on long-term risk if it gives us great production in the short term.

I don't think this is in any way a realistic conversation, but if Angelos opened up the wallet a bit, I'd be very interested in adding Cano to the group of young talent we've got here now. Especially if it also coincided with or followed trading Schoop in a deal for someone like Upton or Porcello.

Well, we can re-visit this if we are actually only 1 player away from contending and make other real moves.

However, neither of those are likely at this point.