14 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: L.J. Hoes Vs. Xavier Avery
http://camdendepot.b...vier-avery.html

[You Play to Win the Game]

Interesting that there's pretty much no mention of OBP in a discussion of Hoes vs. X, as I think that's the biggest differentiator for me personally, when it comes to valuing Hoes over Avery. Overall, I agree with the assessment that Hoes is the better guy to have.

I really don't see Hoes developing too much pop though, but the Sandberg comp was interesting. I still struggle to assume the power is going to come for Hoes though, given he's never had an ISO above .107 in the minors. I will say, with prospects, I don't think it's too wise to strictly take a results oriented approach when evaluating talent, as the developmental process can be just as important in many cases.

I'd be intersted to hear what AS, Stotle or Tucker think about his power potential. Have any of you seen him much lately, or heard things from people who have?

[JeremyStrain]

Interesting that there's pretty much no mention of OBP in a discussion of Hoes vs. X, as I think that's the biggest differentiator for me personally, when it comes to valuing Hoes over Avery. Overall, I agree with the assessment that Hoes is the better guy to have. I really don't see Hoes developing too much pop though, but the Sandberg comp was interesting. I still struggle to assume the power is going to come for Hoes though, given he's never had an ISO above .107 in the minors.

I'd be intersted to hear what AS, Stotle or Tucker think about his power potential. Have any of you seen him much lately, or heard things from people who have?

Yeah I'm kinda with you. Saw him a bunch in AA and never really saw this potential power people talk about. Not a lot of hard hit balls or balls with loft. Did like his contact ability AA is the level where guys tend to fall off there, and he still looked good, showing good bat control, patience and pitch recognition. If he can manage to keep that up I think he'll put up similar numbers in the majors to his career minor numbers, which could be productive. I know Tucker had him rated with a pretty good arm but I didn't get to see much of that. I can't think of him making any throws really, so either it didn't stand out to me or I just didn't see any opportunities, which is very possible if I was focusing on other guys like Manny, Dylan or Jon.

[Tucker Blair]

Relative to the system I like Hoes arm. I don't think it's super, but definitely enough for the corners.
It's really nothing that would stand out IMO. I happened to catch him a few times at AAA though where he made some excellent throws.

I'm with most on Hoes lacking power potential. I think he could sacrifice some average for a little power, but I am not sure it fits his game really.

I've written a lot on Hoes in the past, whether here or at ON. I'm sure I covered some of that in there.

[Stotle]

Hoes was arguably the best power bat in the AFL this year (not best HR, but most consistent forceful impact). There is definitely power in the barrel -- it's just a question as to whether his swing allows it to play as HR/extra base pop.

[Tucker Blair]

Hoes was arguably the best power bat in the AFL this year (not best HR, but most consistent forceful impact). There is definitely power in the barrel -- it's just a question as to whether his swing allows it to play as HR/extra base pop.

In which I do not see it.
That's essentially what I am saying, it's there but not really a part of his game.

[Stotle]

In which I do not see it.
That's essentially what I am saying, it's there but not really a part of his game.

Okay. I took your statement on Hoes sacrificing average for power as an indication you thought he needed to "gear up" in order to produce the pop?

Hoes sounds like a power hitter when he hits; and his exit velos read like a power hitter's. I think power "is" a part of his game, which is what makes it that much more confusing that the production isn't there. I mean, I'm not sure I can think of someone that makes that much consistent hard contact without producing extra base hits more regularly.

I don't know; I think there's more to it than a lot of O's fans are seeing from the box scores. I'd be curious to know what Baltimore is doing to try and pull some of that production out...

[JeremyStrain]

Okay. I took your statement on Hoes sacrificing average for power as an indication you thought he needed to "gear up" in order to produce the pop?

Hoes sounds like a power hitter when he hits; and his exit velos read like a power hitter's. I think power "is" a part of his game, which is what makes it that much more confusing that the production isn't there. I mean, I'm not sure I can think of someone that makes that much consistent hard contact without producing extra base hits more regularly.

I don't know; I think there's more to it than a lot of O's fans are seeing from the box scores. I'd be curious to know what Baltimore is doing to try and pull some of that production out...

Has that always been there for you? That was exactly what I wasn't seeing 2 years ago, but maybe I just caught him during a bad stretch. I was looking for doubles and hard hit balls to the gaps, and was getting soft liners and singles up the middle.

[Stotle]

Has that always been there for you? That was exactly what I wasn't seeing 2 years ago, but maybe I just caught him during a bad stretch. I was looking for doubles and hard hit balls to the gaps, and was getting soft liners and singles up the middle.

More since he was able to repeat AA. Earlier on he was compact with some bat speed, but had to deal with being pushed pretty aggressively. He's started to figure out how to drive the ball as he's gotten more comfortable.

Just under 60% of the contact made by Hoes this fall resulted in exit speeds in excess of 100mph. That's highly impressive. And while he may not turn into an average power guy, I think there is a lot more power potential in his bat than many are giving him credit for.

[JeremyStrain]

More since he was able to repeat AA. Earlier on he was compact with some bat speed, but had to deal with being pushed pretty aggressively. He's started to figure out how to drive the ball as he's gotten more comfortable.

Just under 60% of the contact made by Hoes this fall resulted in exit speeds in excess of 100mph. That's highly impressive. And while he may not turn into an average power guy, I think there is a lot more power potential in his bat than many are giving him credit for.

Gotcha. Yeah I could absolutely see a player put that together once they hit that comfort level. I just hadn't seen it, I read so much lately about the pop and it confused me cause I never remember seeing any of that and I was looking for it. Makes sense if it's been getting the press since AFL and he had things click more last year.

He was pretty tentative and defensive of the zone when I saw him, but it makes sense that he would start driving pitches as he got the hang of the level. I thought he could be a 10-15 HR guy, you think he's got 20HR power hiding in there though? I'd imagine with those exit speeds it wouldn't be hard to get there in Camden.

[Stotle]

Gotcha. Yeah I could absolutely see a player put that together once they hit that comfort level. I just hadn't seen it, I read so much lately about the pop and it confused me cause I never remember seeing any of that and I was looking for it. Makes sense if it's been getting the press since AFL and he had things click more last year.

He was pretty tentative and defensive of the zone when I saw him, but it makes sense that he would start driving pitches as he got the hang of the level. I thought he could be a 10-15 HR guy, you think he's got 20HR power hiding in there though? I'd imagine with those exit speeds it wouldn't be hard to get there in Camden.

Eh, maybe 14-18 if things click. "Average" power ain't what it used to be.

[JeremyStrain]

Eh, maybe 14-18 if things click. "Average" power ain't what it used to be.

True that.

P.S. Glad to see you haven't forgotten about us little guys now that you are in the big leagues

[You Play to Win the Game]

True that.

P.S. Glad to see you haven't forgotten about us little guys now that you are in the big leagues

I second that. Very cool.

[RichardZ]

Okay. I took your statement on Hoes sacrificing average for power as an indication you thought he needed to "gear up" in order to produce the pop?

Hoes sounds like a power hitter when he hits; and his exit velos read like a power hitter's. I think power "is" a part of his game, which is what makes it that much more confusing that the production isn't there. I mean, I'm not sure I can think of someone that makes that much consistent hard contact without producing extra base hits more regularly.

I don't know; I think there's more to it than a lot of O's fans are seeing from the box scores. I'd be curious to know what Baltimore is doing to try and pull some of that production out...

I certainly put weight into what you saw but the stats sing a different tune. It will be interesting to see what Hoes does when repeating AAA this year, although he got off to slow starts when repeating both Frederick and Bowie. The scouting reports says he barrels up the ball consistently better than any other O's farmhand, and yet his doubles and homerun numbers are that of a singles hitter. The power might be in there somewhere. He did have that spurt in 2011 when he hit 6 homers in about a month's time or less.

The plate discipline and contact suggest that Hoes should have a better chance to succeed than Avery. However, I'm sticking with Avery as the one who turns out better, based on how good he's done when he has been good.

[bnickle]

All things being relatively equal, give me the baseball rat, the kid with the high baseball IQ. I think Hoes has a nice ML career, even if it's only as a 4th OF. My expectations are higher than that, but I think he'll at least stick as a ML bench player. On the other hand, I'll be surprised if Avery can hang on with any regularity as a 4th OF. Career AAA fodder IMO.