17 replies to this topic

[LanceRinker]

http://baltimorespor...-take-a-chance/

[Mackus]

I certainly wouldn't quantify a trade for Morse or Trumbo and signing Francisco Liriano as "taking a chance".

Those sort of moves should be the bear minimum we as fans accept as basic attempts at fielding a team for next year.

If they signed Sanchez instead of Liriano, that'd be a big enough move to move the meter. Or if they traded for a true middle of the order bat instead of another Luke Scott or signed a huge fish like Hamilton. But Morse/Trumbo/Morneau/Willingham/Reynolds and a Liriano/Saunders/etc. back-end starter would just be the minimal movement for Duquette to be able to say he tried to do something to improve. It's only a very, very slight step forward over what we had last season. It's really no better than just resigning McLouth, Reynolds, and Saunders and going into 2013 with the same exact team as the end of 2012.

[LanceRinker]

I certainly wouldn't quantify a trade for Morse or Trumbo and signing Francisco Liriano as "taking a chance".

Those sort of moves should be the bear minimum we as fans accept as basic attempts at fielding a team for next year.

If they signed Sanchez instead of Liriano, that'd be a big enough move to move the meter. Or if they traded for a true middle of the order bat instead of another Luke Scott or signed a huge fish like Hamilton. But Morse/Trumbo/Morneau/Willingham/Reynolds and a Liriano/Saunders/etc. back-end starter would just be the minimal movement for Duquette to be able to say he tried to do something to improve. It's only a very, very slight step forward over what we had last season. It's really no better than just resigning McLouth, Reynolds, and Saunders and going into 2013 with the same exact team as the end of 2012.

I disagree. Not because I think any of the players I mentioned would turn us into immediate World Series contenders, but because they would provide us with enough of what we need to make it work. Any of those players would contribute more than what we were getting last year from certain guys last year and help ensure another winning season.

That's why I consider those to be important moves. The reason I say the O's need to take a chance and do something like that is because they seem prone to talking, and talking, and talking about making a move but not actually making one. They just need to take a chance, any chance at all.

[Mackus]

Are they better than what we had last year?

What's the big difference between Morse and Trumbo versus Reynolds? Noting that you're liking moving a bullpen piece like Strop and a prospect in order to get them.

What's the big difference between Liriano versus Saunders?

That's not making a big splash. That's just changing the sheets, IMO.

[Mike in STL]

Lance,

I'm glad you mentioned Anibal Sanchez. Hes a guy I've been high on for quite sometime. He'd also cost about $20-$30 mil less than Greinke.

I'm also ok with sitting back. Often times the Orioles set the price bar for other teams. No rush. A lot can happen between now and spring training.

[Mackus]

I'm glad you mentioned Anibal Sanchez. Hes a guy I've been high on for quite sometime. He'd also cost about $20-$30 mil less than Greinke.

I was crazy high on the idea of Sanchez before the offseason. I'd still really like to get him, but my max on him would be about 4/$60M (understanding that the O's are incredibly unlikely to go above about $100M in total payroll while Angelos is still in charge). Given the way contracts have gone this offseason, I think it's likely he gets closer to 5/$85M or so. I pay at that price. He's a very solid pitcher and pretty damn consistent (which is what I like the most about him) but he doesn't really have that potential upside of being a #1 or at least a very good #2. He's more of a very consistent, very good #3. That's worth some cash, but not getting close to $100M or a 5 year or longer deal, IMO.

[JeremyStrain]

Lance,

I'm glad you mentioned Anibal Sanchez. Hes a guy I've been high on for quite sometime. He'd also cost about $20-$30 mil less than Greinke.

I'm also ok with sitting back. Often times the Orioles set the price bar for other teams. No rush. A lot can happen between now and spring training.

I really hope you meant $80-100m less than Grienke, cause he's about to get $150-170m.

[SportsGuy]

I really hope you meant $80-100m less than Grienke, cause he's about to get $150-170m.

Yep...I don't think Sanchez gets more than 80.

[LanceRinker]

Are they better than what we had last year?

What's the big difference between Morse and Trumbo versus Reynolds? Noting that you're liking moving a bullpen piece like Strop and a prospect in order to get them.

What's the big difference between Liriano versus Saunders?

That's not making a big splash. That's just changing the sheets, IMO.

I like Reynolds because of his work ethic and gritty play, but he's nothing close to a sure thing offensively. His defense is much improved at first base but I'd much rather bring Morse on board - who will hit for a higher average and has just as much power potential as Reynolds does, or I'd much rather bring on Trumbo who is younger, has a higher ceiling and just as much power potential as well.

As far as the difference between Liriano and Saunders? Liriano is younger by a few years and his ceiling is higher as well. He's certainly more hit or miss than Saunders but his FIP has outperformed his ERA in every single season of his career with exception to 2006. He won't cost that much either - relatively speaking of course.

Obviously I'd prefer Sanchez but I'd settle for Liriano.

[JeremyStrain]

I like Reynolds because of his work ethic and gritty play, but he's nothing close to a sure thing offensively. His defense is much improved at first base but I'd much rather bring Morse on board - who will hit for a higher average and has just as much power potential as Reynolds does, or I'd much rather bring on Trumbo who is younger, has a higher ceiling and just as much power potential as well.

As far as the difference between Liriano and Saunders? Liriano is younger by a few years and his ceiling is higher as well. He's certainly more hit or miss than Saunders but his FIP has outperformed his ERA in every single season of his career with exception to 2006. He won't cost that much either - relatively speaking of course.

Obviously I'd prefer Sanchez but I'd settle for Liriano.

At that point, since we can pluck any of those guys out of a hat for the pros and cons, wouldn't we be just as well off with Conor Jackson playing 1B? I mean he's got a .350 career OBP, and playing in Camden should help his slg% a little bit. Could be a .750-.800 OPS guy and he costs nothing.

The problem with Liriano is that his success hinges on his slider and velocity, with the injuries he's had and the surgeries, his slider just isn't what it used to be and won't get back there, so I don't think he has a ceiling anymore. What you see is what you get. It's a case of a guy that probably should have converted to RP to save his arm, and blew it out as a SP.

Saunders is hard to peg, because by all accounts he should be just another run of the mill 4/5th starter, but was excellent in BAL, so maybe he's one of those guys that plays better in certain places, maybe he just had a good streak at the right time. You'll never know if you don't sign him and give him a chance, but based on what he did it's not really enough to sign him. I'd be interested to see him get a shot and see if he could keep it up, but I wouldn't waste much money doing it because I think in house guys could do as well for a fraction of the money. Going cheap there might give you enough to get close on Hamilton.

[dpsmith22]

Neither of those pitchers are better than what we have AND they block our young starters. I would not entertain signing them.

I would rather see them sign Marcum and make Gonzalez the 5.

[JeremyStrain]

Neither of those pitchers are better than what we have AND they block our young starters. I would not entertain signing them.

I would rather see them sign Marcum and make Gonzalez the 5.

Marcum has some real shoulder concerns (I'll be surprised if he makes it through this season without getting shut down for it) but I heard KC was interested in him if the price stays down.

[LanceRinker]

Neither of those pitchers are better than what we have AND they block our young starters. I would not entertain signing them.

I would rather see them sign Marcum and make Gonzalez the 5.

If Marcum was fully healthy, and there weren't so many concerns about his shoulder than I'd definitely be interested in signing him. Angelos will take one look at his medical records though and shut that little idea down.

Outside of Sanchez there really isn't much out there that isn't an injury concern or something in the way of you don't know what you're going to get.

[JeremyStrain]

If Marcum was fully healthy, and there weren't so many concerns about his shoulder than I'd definitely be interested in signing him. Angelos will take one look at his medical records though and shut that little idea down.

Outside of Sanchez there really isn't much out there that isn't an injury concern or something in the way of you don't know what you're going to get.

Yeah that was kind of the problem with this offseason. As far as sure upgrades you were looking at Grienke, and maybe Sanchez and that was it. Was the upgrade to one of them worth the 15-25m per year they would cost you? No. So between overpayments (thanks Dodgers and TV money) even the mid tier guys are getting $7-10m when they should be getting like $4-6m.

Fortunately we've got Bundy coming this year sometime, and some young guys that haven't broken out yet that need shots, so it'll save us money.

[dpsmith22]

He made 5 starts in Sept and 1 in October. I agree he is an injury risk, no doubt. The birds should at least do their research on him.

Sadly all pitchers are a a pitch away from the DL. I still would prefer us not block our young pitchers with fill-in starters. Sanchez is better than that I know, but not that much better than we have now, for a lot of money.

[Mackus]

Sanchez is better than that I know, but not that much better than we have now, for a lot of money.

Sanchez is much better than everyone we have now in terms of reliability and consistency. And much better than everyone we have now except for Hammel (and Bundy, if you wanna go that far) in terms of ability and upside.

That said, for the Orioles he's not worth the money he's going to get (5/$75M minimum), even if Angelos weren't holding the payroll down to the point where signing him is an impossibility (which I believe to be the reality).

[dpsmith22]

I would agree that he is better in reliability and consistency. However, I feel that Tillman, Hammel, and even Chen, will match Sanchez's production, in 2013, providing all 4 pitched for the Orioles in 2013.

A permanent switch to the AL will alter his numbers to put the contract he is seeking, at ludicrous.

[mweb08]

Are they better than what we had last year?

What's the big difference between Morse and Trumbo versus Reynolds? Noting that you're liking moving a bullpen piece like Strop and a prospect in order to get them.

What's the big difference between Liriano versus Saunders?

That's not making a big splash. That's just changing the sheets, IMO.

I largely agree. I do think Morse has the potential to be much better than Reynolds, but he could also be about the same. Trumbo isn't really much of an ugrade if one at all imo, especially when you factor in whatever it takes to get him. Now, he does save some money, but that's helping PA more so than the team.

Liriano has some nice upside, more than Saunders, but his downside is also greater.