86 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

The most important numbers with Strop are the GB rate, the K rate, and the BB rate.

The GB rate is excellent (4th overall), the K rate is ok, and the BB rate is poor.

I imagine we see him continue to get an obscene amount of ground balls, as hitters are going to regularly have poor contact against his stuff.

I imagine we see him continue to put himself in trouble with walks.

I think you will see consistency in his numbers due to his stuff, and his pluses and minuses as a pitcher. I think that is where he regularly be among the 20-30 best, while others will fluctuate more wildly as they simply don't match his stuff.

But again, how are you measuring him as a top 30 reliever? If he continues to get grounders but has a 3.5-4 ErA(where I expect him to be), is that top 30?

[LanceRinker]

Told ya so.

Haha. So should I be calling you to start confirming things for me?

[JeremyStrain]

Haha. So should I be calling you to start confirming things for me?

Ha. I wish I could confirm stuff, that would mean I'd be getting paid to do this stuff.

[SportsGuy]

The only way we match up with LA is if we are dealing Johnson.

And Anaheim doesn't have what I would want unless we are dealing hardy and want Callaspo...I also would only likely want Bourjous if we out him in CF.

Trumbo does nothing for me...like I said, much rather have Morse.

[Mike B]

I see Trumbo as a Younger cheaper version of Reynolds. Trumbo, hits for a little higher average but has lower OBP and more than likely is less efficient at 1B.

Clearly the Orioles are looking for a cheaper option at 1B then Reynolds which brings guys like Trumbo and Morse into play.

[BSLChrisStoner]

But again, how are you measuring him as a top 30 reliever? If he continues to get grounders but has a 3.5-4 ErA(where I expect him to be), is that top 30?

I think everything you used to measure him was fair. If his fWAR this past year was 54th, that is where he was. I'm not disputing that. I think consistently he will be one of the 20-30 best relievers.

[SportsGuy]

I think everything you used to measure him was fair. If his fWAR this past year was 54th, that is where he was. I'm not disputing that. I think consistently he will be one of the 20-30 best relievers.

Ok, so then you disagree with your own thought that he was elite last year?

[You Play to Win the Game]

So then, your measure would be ERA?

When saying how good someone WAS in a particular year, ERA is what I'll use. Why wouldn't you? It's not to say there isn't cause for concern moving forward, but I'm not necessarily all that concerned, although if he's coveted, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him.

What I mean is that runs are the most important when evaluating a reliever's effectiveness for a given year, but certainly not for projecting their future. I will say, there are obviously other factors that would be points of contention when ranking relievers, so you couldn't just go by ERA. Things like stranded runners, high/low leverage, etc.

[Mackus]

The most important numbers with Strop are the GB rate, the K rate, and the BB rate.

The GB rate is excellent (4th overall), the K rate is ok, and the BB rate is poor.

I imagine we see him continue to get an obscene amount of ground balls, as hitters are going to regularly have poor contact against his stuff.

I imagine we see him continue to put himself in trouble with walks.

I think you will see consistency in his numbers due to his stuff, and his pluses and minuses as a pitcher. I think that is where he regularly be among the 20-30 best, while others will fluctuate more wildly as they simply don't match his stuff.

Talking about relievers as being consistent is pretty dangerous. Aside from the very best of the best, and almost all of them are closers, which you already said you don't think Strop is part of, there really aren't many who are consistent from year to year. Even the good closers tend to be very up and down.

I'm a big Strop fan, but relievers are inherently inconsistent.

[SportsGuy]

Chris..do you think Strop is better than ODay?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ok, so then you disagree with your own thought that he was elite last year?

I think fWAR, WPA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB Rate, GB Rate, LOB rate, pure stuff are all telling parts of the picture. If fWAR says he was the 54th best reliever overall, that has to be considered in an evaluation of him, and can not be disregarded.

By that measurement (fWAR), Strop would have been in the upper 4th of all relievers. Which is above-average, but not elite. That's fine, and probably a fair estimation of how to look at him.

I don't take fWAR as the end-all, be-all though. I guarantee there are not 53 relievers I would rather have, or think project better than Strop going forward.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Talking about relievers as being consistent is pretty dangerous. Aside from the very best of the best, and almost all of them are closers, which you already said you don't think Strop is part of, there really aren't many who are consistent from year to year. Even the good closers tend to be very up and down.

I'm a big Strop fan, but relievers are inherently inconsistent.

Mediocre relievers are inherently inconsistent.

Nearly all relievers will have large fluctuations of era due to the limited amount of innings they pitch overall, and how a couple of bad outings can skew the numbers.

That doesn't change how their overall value though. Just changes how they are perceived.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Chris..do you think Strop is better than ODay?

O'Day has had 3 very good (to excellent) years, and one injury riddled year. Some would point to his 2011 as an indication of just how volatile relievers can be year to year. I would point to the other 3 years and say that he is an above-average reliever who will typically post above-average results when he is healthy.

I'm aware that O'Day had the WPA edge over Strop last year. Overall a lot of their peripheral numbers were similar. I don't doubt O'Days ability to have another above-average / excellent year.

Yes, I would rather have Strop vs. O'Day going forward if I could only have one.

[JeremyStrain]

Lets not forget the x-factor for RP which is a huge part for the lack of consistency. The mental aspect. Confidence, limited opportunities, high leverage situations, all can take their toll and add up. Can't predict it, can't know how players will react to it year by year. It's a lot of pressure as a RP, especially one in a later inning role.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Lets not forget the x-factor for RP which is a huge part for the lack of consistency. The mental aspect. Confidence, limited opportunities, high leverage situations, all can take their toll and add up. Can't predict it, can't know how players will react to it year by year. It's a lot of pressure as a RP, especially one in a later inning role.

And that's what I fear may have been a contributing factor with Strop toward the end of last season, but there's no way to know definitively. I hope it isn't the case obviously.

[SportsGuy]

I think fWAR, WPA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB Rate, GB Rate, LOB rate, pure stuff are all telling parts of the picture. If fWAR says he was the 54th best reliever overall, that has to be considered in an evaluation of him, and can not be disregarded.

By that measurement (fWAR), Strop would have been in the upper 4th of all relievers. Which is above-average, but not elite. That's fine, and probably a fair estimation of how to look at him.

I don't take fWAR as the end-all, be-all though. I guarantee there are not 53 relievers I would rather have, or think project better than Strop going forward.

But his peripherals going forward show him to be much worse than he was last year, ERA wise.

If Strop has a 4 ERA in 2013, will you still be confident in him long term?

[BSLChrisStoner]

But his peripherals going forward show him to be much worse than he was last year, ERA wise.

If Strop has a 4 ERA in 2013, will you still be confident in him long term?

Yes, for what I just said.

Nearly all relievers will have large fluctuations of era due to the limited amount of innings they pitch overall, and how a couple of bad outings can skew the numbers.

That doesn't change how their overall value though. Just changes how they are perceived.

[SportsGuy]

To be fair, BBR had Strop as a 2.4 WAR player last year.

[SportsGuy]

Yes, for what I just said.

Nearly all relievers will have large fluctuations of era due to the limited amount of innings they pitch overall, and how a couple of bad outings can skew the numbers.

That doesn't change how their overall value though. Just changes how they are perceived.

So basically, you are going to ignore performance and just stick to the idea that you like his stuff and that he gets a lot of gbs? That's good enough for you?

[BSLChrisStoner]

So basically, you are going to ignore performance and just stick to the idea that you like his stuff and that he gets a lot of gbs? That's good enough for you?

You asked if I would still be confident in Strop long-term if his ERA was in the 4's.
Well, I agree... I think you could see his ERA jump up to that level. That won't change my perception of Strop, no.