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BSL: Orioles Talking to Two Teams


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#81 mweb08

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 12:59 PM

When saying how good someone WAS in a particular year, ERA is what I'll use. Why wouldn't you? It's not to say there isn't cause for concern moving forward, but I'm not necessarily all that concerned, although if he's coveted, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him.

What I mean is that runs are the most important when evaluating a reliever's effectiveness for a given year, but certainly not for projecting their future. I will say, there are obviously other factors that would be points of contention when ranking relievers, so you couldn't just go by ERA. Things like stranded runners, high/low leverage, etc.


Like you say, you also look at stranded runners and leverage. In addition, I'd look at unearned runs since a pitcher is generally partially partially responsible for them.

But besides all of that, I would also look at the peripherals and stats such as FIP, xFIP, etc. I think those numbers do a better, or at least as good of a job of telling us how a pitcher actually did compared to ERA. ERA strongly factors in defense and luck. I would also consider strength of defense, the parks played in, and the strength of competition.

#82 SportsGuy

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

You asked if I would still be confident in Strop long-term if his ERA was in the 4's.
Well, I agree... I think you could see his ERA jump up to that level. That won't change my perception of Strop, no.

According to Cots, he will be arb eligible for the first time after this season. His salary will jump up, even if he has a 4 ERA. He will quickly stop being cheap.

#83 bnickle

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:40 PM

Some are overrating Strop.

#84 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:52 PM

Some are overrating Strop.


Since I'm the only one making the argument for Strop, it can't be 'some' people overrating Strop. Others have expressed reasonable arguments of why they think I am overrating him. It's fine if you agree with them.

You can call me out on this board. This is not OH.
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#85 bnickle

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:38 PM

Since I'm the only one making the argument for Strop, it can't be 'some' people overrating Strop. Others have expressed reasonable arguments of why they think I am overrating him. It's fine if you agree with them.

You can call me out on this board. This is not OH.

No, I mean you make legit arguments for Strop. I just tend to believe he isn't the pitcher we saw last year. I think he's replaceable. It's not that there isn't talent there, but I'm not overly drawn in by it. Plus, I think we have a lot of quality BP type arms. It makes it easier to replace him when you have a few guys that you can put into his role and match or come close to matching his production.



I'm fine with trading Strop for either Trumbo or Morse and I don;t believe you are the only person in the thread who said they wouldn't do it. Or at least would bring back Reynolds and keep Strop over trading him for one of those 2 guys. So that's why I didn't quote you and said some people. Certainly, I understand the argument, but again I'll say that I prefer to let Reynolds walk and trade Strop for a Morse or Trumbo over resigning Reynolds and retaining Pedro. Just as an FYI.... I agree with SG in that I like Morse most of all. I'm not a big fan of Trumbo, but I think I'd have to pull the trigger on a Trumbo- Strop deal.

#86 JeremyStrain

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:44 PM

Since I'm the only one making the argument for Strop, it can't be 'some' people overrating Strop. Others have expressed reasonable arguments of why they think I am overrating him. It's fine if you agree with them.

You can call me out on this board. This is not OH.


We each have our own things. You have a high opinion of him, and that's fine. I disagree with it, but I'd never hate on you for feeling the way you do.

It's like me with Mclouth. If there's one thing you have to know when evaluating and scouting, is make your opinion and stick to it. If you saw something that made you feel a certain way, it's still gotta be there, so stay with it until proven otherwise. Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong, but both are ok.

I hate when you see a guy all in favor of one player for whatever reason, then the next year they have a bad season or something, and they jump ship and go back on their opinions. Either something new has to come about, or the performance just never comes through, but stick with your evaluation.
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#87 DJ MC

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 10:22 PM

Since I'm the only one making the argument for Strop, it can't be 'some' people overrating Strop. Others have expressed reasonable arguments of why they think I am overrating him. It's fine if you agree with them.

You can call me out on this board. This is not OH.

Heh. I was going to make a joke earlier that "over there" our conversation would have either led directly to a "vacation" or at least would have been escalated by him into personal attacks that only get one side punished :P

I see the potential in Strop, and I don't want to see him go for just anything. I think Trumbo--with his limitations--along with a different reliever can be more valuable to the club than Strop and Reynolds, and for a lower cost. The way he finished last season just scared me too much to consider him that valuable.
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