86 replies to this topic

[LanceRinker]

http://baltimorespor...g-to-two-teams/

After about a dozen phone calls last night...

[JeffLong]

Good post. Not sure Strop makes sense for them though.

They have Clippard & Storen who can both close & flame-throwing Henry Rodriguez.

[LanceRinker]

Good post. Not sure Strop makes sense for them though.

They have Clippard & Storen who can both close & flame-throwing Henry Rodriguez.

Rodriguez didn't do so well last year, even though they hope he does a 180 and turns it around. But they're interested in bringing in an extra arm or two just to make sure their bullpen is solid.

Patton probably makes the most sense for them though as they don't have a LHP in their bullpen with major league experience.

[Kevin Ebert]

I think Trumbo is much more of a hacker than you give him credit for. He's also not good on defense in LF. He's a first baseman who was forced to play the OF last year because of a little $240m signing they made at 1B.

[LanceRinker]

I think Trumbo is much more of a hacker than you give him credit for. He's also not good on defense in LF. He's a first baseman who was forced to play the OF last year because of a little $240m signing they made at 1B.

He was horrible as a right fielder but the defensive metrics rate him as above average in left field and at first base. I've never actually seen him play in left field but I did watch him play first base a handful of games the last few seasons and don't remember him sucking all that badly. I'd say he was a bit better than Reynolds at first.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I see no reason to give up Strop or Patton for Morse or Trumbo; when you can just resign Reynolds, and retain the arms.

I disagree with the notion that the O's have lost a lot of ground to Boston, and Tampa Bay. While Toronto is improved, I don't think they are clearly better than Baltimore either.

[clapdiddy]

I see no reason to give up Strop or Patton for Morse or Trumbo; when you can just resign Reynolds, and retain the arms.

I disagree with the notion that the O's have lost a lot of ground to Boston, and Tampa Bay. While Toronto is improved, I don't think they are clearly better than Baltimore either.

Agree with all of this. The only players I've heard that make some sense to us would be Bourjos, Hosmer, and to a lesser extent, Butler.

Bourjos would only make sense if we were going to move Jones to LF. Hosmer is an obvious upgrade to a position where we have no one. Butler would be nice, but right now, we have a DH.

[LanceRinker]

I see no reason to give up Strop or Patton for Morse or Trumbo; when you can just resign Reynolds, and retain the arms.

I disagree with the notion that the O's have lost a lot of ground to Boston, and Tampa Bay. While Toronto is improved, I don't think they are clearly better than Baltimore either.

See, and I think they have lost ground. Relievers can be a dime a dozen and I wouldn't be incredibly upset if we traded Strop, Patton, Ayala, or J. Johnson.

Toronto has improved overall - rotation and the lineup. Health will play a huge role, but that's for every team every season. Not crowning them AL East champs by any means, but they've made the division more challenging.

The Rays have the rotation to compete in every single game and will have a healthy Longoria, as well as a solid defensive SS in Escobar they just acquired. Their defense will be solid and offense won't be too horrible.

The Red Sox, while I still think they have a ways to go, have still improved their offense and one would have to reasonably expect at least Lester to bounce back and have a strong 2013. They still might not make the playoffs but they're better than a 69 team win.

The Yankees are the Yankees and will still be competitive - I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year but their rotation will be a bit deeper with Pineda coming back. Their offense will struggle, relative to their usual performance, because of how old they've gotten - but they'll still be tough to play.

The Orioles, while still a good team and one I expect to finish with a winning record, has made zero moves and need to pick up another bat - at least. If that's all they do this off-season I'll be happy because it never hurts to have a little more offense on your side in the AL East. Our pitching is decent enough that I'm fine there.

[DJ MC]

He was horrible as a right fielder but the defensive metrics rate him as above average in left field and at first base. I've never actually seen him play in left field but I did watch him play first base a handful of games the last few seasons and don't remember him sucking all that badly. I'd say he was a bit better than Reynolds at first.

He's probably a fine first baseman, but he's played 142 games in the outfield in his professional career out of 950 total. I'd take those numbers with some salt.

[JeremyStrain]

He was horrible as a right fielder but the defensive metrics rate him as above average in left field and at first base. I've never actually seen him play in left field but I did watch him play first base a handful of games the last few seasons and don't remember him sucking all that badly. I'd say he was a bit better than Reynolds at first.

Ignore the metrics (they do not work) if you are terrible as a LF you are terrible in RF too. He's not great at 1B, but I'd put him a little below Reynolds for all those not buying Reynolds defense. Trumbo has a little more range, but Reynolds has better hands and arm. He's a 1B/DH playing out of position in ANA which is the only reason they are trying to trade him.

[LanceRinker]

Ignore the metrics (they do not work) if you are terrible as a LF you are terrible in RF too. He's not great at 1B, but I'd put him a little below Reynolds for all those not buying Reynolds defense. Trumbo has a little more range, but Reynolds has better hands and arm. He's a 1B/DH playing out of position in ANA which is the only reason they are trying to trade him.

If you could have him for Strop, or a package in that neighborhood, would you do it?

[JeremyStrain]

See, and I think they have lost ground. Relievers can be a dime a dozen and I wouldn't be incredibly upset if we traded Strop, Patton, Ayala, or J. Johnson.

Toronto has improved overall - rotation and the lineup. Health will play a huge role, but that's for every team every season. Not crowning them AL East champs by any means, but they've made the division more challenging.

The Rays have the rotation to compete in every single game and will have a healthy Longoria, as well as a solid defensive SS in Escobar they just acquired. Their defense will be solid and offense won't be too horrible.

The Red Sox, while I still think they have a ways to go, have still improved their offense and one would have to reasonably expect at least Lester to bounce back and have a strong 2013. They still might not make the playoffs but they're better than a 69 team win.

The Yankees are the Yankees and will still be competitive - I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year but their rotation will be a bit deeper with Pineda coming back. Their offense will struggle, relative to their usual performance, because of how old they've gotten - but they'll still be tough to play.

The Orioles, while still a good team and one I expect to finish with a winning record, has made zero moves and need to pick up another bat - at least. If that's all they do this off-season I'll be happy because it never hurts to have a little more offense on your side in the AL East. Our pitching is decent enough that I'm fine there.

TOR has improved on paper, but any team making that many additions to it's starting lineup is going to struggle. Not to mention the pitching staff is hinging on a couple guys with serious injury concerns (Johnson and Romero).

I actually think the Red Sox got WORSE this offseason, mostly because the contracts they just took on are terrible and it shows that they have no intentions of really competing for the next 3 years while they retool. If they trade Ellsbury and can't extend Pedroia, they get even worse. They are rebuilding, make no mistake.

TB is a wild card with all that pitching. If they trade some away it brings them back down to earth a little bit, but it depends on what they trade it for. If it's prospects that are a year or two out, it hurts them, if it's ML position players they improve. Their OF is a bit shaky though.

[JeremyStrain]

If you could have him for Strop, or a package in that neighborhood, would you do it?

I'd like to say yes because MR/SU guys are so easy to replace and we have a ton of them, but I'd still have the same concerns we had with Reynolds, just younger at the position and a slight step down defensively. I'd explore every other option and I'd make that move before I'd resign Reynolds because of the money you'd save, but I wouldn't act like I fleeced them or something.

[LanceRinker]

I'd like to say yes because MR/SU guys are so easy to replace and we have a ton of them, but I'd still have the same concerns we had with Reynolds, just younger at the position and a slight step down defensively. I'd explore every other option and I'd make that move before I'd resign Reynolds because of the money you'd save, but I wouldn't act like I fleeced them or something.

I wouldn't say we would be fleecing them for Trumbo either. If it were me I would make it a point to include Bourjos in the deal, possibly an additional prospect, and center a package around Jim Johnson. I really like Johnson but his value will never be higher and I do not believe in paying a ton of money to someone because they have that "closer" title.

[BSLChrisStoner]

See, and I think they have lost ground. Relievers can be a dime a dozen and I wouldn't be incredibly upset if we traded Strop, Patton, Ayala, or J. Johnson.

Average relievers are a dime a dozen. Elite relievers have plenty of value and are not just replaceable. I think Johnson, and Strop qualify as such... but we've debated that point to death.

That still doesn't answer the idea of why you would trade any of them for Morse or Trumbo, when you could sign a comparable player in Reynolds and keep the arm.

Toronto has improved overall - rotation and the lineup. Health will play a huge role, but that's for every team every season. Not crowning them AL East champs by any means, but they've made the division more challenging.

The Rays have the rotation to compete in every single game and will have a healthy Longoria, as well as a solid defensive SS in Escobar they just acquired. Their defense will be solid and offense won't be too horrible.

The Red Sox, while I still think they have a ways to go, have still improved their offense and one would have to reasonably expect at least Lester to bounce back and have a strong 2013. They still might not make the playoffs but they're better than a 69 team win.

The Yankees are the Yankees and will still be competitive - I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year but their rotation will be a bit deeper with Pineda coming back. Their offense will struggle, relative to their usual performance, because of how old they've gotten - but they'll still be tough to play.

The AL East will be the AL East every year. The financial resources of NY and Boston will allow them to always be competitive and make moves others can not. Tampa Bay has the great pitching you alluded to, and a superior front office. Anthopoulos is highly regarded, and Toronto is motivated to improve. It is always going to take 95 wins or so to win the Division, and 90 wins to be in the Wild Card race.

I don't see the sense of every worrying about that the others are doing. The focus has to be on building your own team as best you can.

The Orioles, while still a good team and one I expect to finish with a winning record, has made zero moves and need to pick up another bat - at least. If that's all they do this off-season I'll be happy because it never hurts to have a little more offense on your side in the AL East. Our pitching is decent enough that I'm fine there.

So you point (correctly) to likely improved health for Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay as reasons they can be better - but don't mention it for the O's?

Markakis is likely to be in the lineup more often. Hammel is more likely to throw 175 innings vs the 20 starts he made in '12.

Will the bullpen regress some? Quite likely. Will the rotation be improved? Also likely. Will the O's get better production from LF and 2nd this year? They won't get worse.

The O's might finish 4th or 5th with a winning record. That is certainly possible. I just disagree that Tampa Bay, and Boston have made moves so far which have caused the O's to lose ground. That has not happened to date.

[Moose Milligan]

If reliever are a dime a dozen, how come it's taken us this long to get a good bullpen?

I agree with Stoner...resign Reynolds, keep the arms.

I have no idea if Reynolds D at first base was legit last year or not, but I'd like to see if he could do it again. Having him and Davis in the lineup give us two legit 30 homer guys. Reynolds might strike out a ton, but he has good patience, sees a lot of pitches and draws walks.

[LanceRinker]

Average relievers are a dime a dozen. Elite relievers have plenty of value and are not just replaceable. I think Johnson, and Strop qualify as such... but we've debated that point to death.

That still doesn't answer the idea of why you would trade any of them for Morse or Trumbo, when you could sign a comparable player in Reynolds and keep the arm.



The AL East will be the AL East every year. The financial resources of NY and Boston will allow them to always be competitive and make moves others can not. Tampa Bay has the great pitching you alluded to, and a superior front office. Anthopoulos is highly regarded, and Toronto is motivated to improve. It is always going to take 95 wins or so to win the Division, and 90 wins to be in the Wild Card race.

I don't see the sense of every worrying about that the others are doing. The focus has to be on building your own team as best you can.



So you point (correctly) to likely improved health for Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay as reasons they can be better - but don't mention it for the O's?

Markakis is likely to be in the lineup more often. Hammel is more likely to throw 175 innings vs the 20 starts he made in '12.

Will the bullpen regress some? Quite likely. Will the rotation be improved? Also likely. Will the O's get better production from LF and 2nd this year? They won't get worse.

The O's might finish 4th or 5th with a winning record. That is certainly possible. I just disagree that Tampa Bay, and Boston have made moves so far which have caused the O's to lose ground. That has not happened to date.

True - the Orioles will have a healthy Markakis and hopefully a healthy Reimold - but there are still question marks for first base and left field. Davis is a DH, even though I think he could be a decent first baseman, and Betemit is alright at first as well but has some pretty awful splits.

If you have the opportunity to pick up a power bat, which the team needs, than you do it if you all you're giving up is a reliever or so. Not saying that Strop for Trumbo is a great deal for us, but it's far from unfair for either team. The free agent market is crazy right now with the kind of (monopoly style) money being thrown around and the O's aren't going to get into those waters.

That leaves the trade market for them to improve. If I had to choose between Morse and Trumbo then I'd go Trumbo because he's younger, still hasn't reached his ceiling yet (IMO), and we'll have him for more than one year.

I like Strop too, but sometimes I think he's valued a bit too high - as are most quality bullpen arms. There are relievers available on the scrap pile every off-season that perform at a high level for whichever team takes a chance on them. Buck and Dan have proven schrewd evaluators of talent and I trust them to make sound decisions when picking up those types of players towards the end of the off-season, thus making the loss of Strop (or another RP) easier to deal with.

The main point I am trying to make here is that if the O's want to compete for the division title or another wild-card spot they'll have to do something to improve their odds of doing so. Not saying they are a bad team, or will be a bad team in 2013 - because they're not and won't be - but that shouldn't mean they should stand pat.

[Moose Milligan]

The O's might finish 4th or 5th with a winning record. That is certainly possible. I just disagree that Tampa Bay, and Boston have made moves so far which have caused the O's to lose ground. That has not happened to date.

I'm not sure how possible it'd be for the O's to finish 4th or 5th with a winning record...to do that, all the teams in the division would have to be around 85 wins and another division out there would have to absolutely suck.

I don't think Tampa has made significant strides.

The Sox have handed out some dumb contracts, but Napoli is good. He's not Adrian Gonzalez, but he's good. Gomes has some pop, a decent OBP. Victorino still might have some in the tank...he's got some speed.

These guys aren't high priced FA's...but what they are is just annoying and pesky. It looks like they're trying to get back to their mid 2000 kind of formula but they're overpaying to do so.

They've gotten better...they won't be as bad as they were last year. They'll be able to score some runs. I have my suspicions about their pitching, though.

[DJ MC]

Trading Strop for Trumbo seems like a very easy yes to me.

Remember that he'll be going from the number-25 home run park in baseball to the number-five.

[JeremyStrain]

I wouldn't say we would be fleecing them for Trumbo either. If it were me I would make it a point to include Bourjos in the deal, possibly an additional prospect, and center a package around Jim Johnson. I really like Johnson but his value will never be higher and I do not believe in paying a ton of money to someone because they have that "closer" title.

I don't think they'll trade Bourjos at all. The only place I see him mentioned is here. Haven't talked to anyone that has even heard his name. ANA is looking to add, not subtract, but may be willing to do something smaller if it helps upgrade another spot. They have a little logjam with Trumbo, but I'm sure they'd like to keep him to keep that depth too.