78 replies to this topic

[Domenic]

There are arguments both ways. First off, they do need to add some pieces. However most people were underwhelmed with what they did last year and we all know how that worked out. If 2012 taught us anything, it's that Duquette and Showalter at the very least know what they're doing with their personnel moves. I have no reason to doubt that whatever they do or don't do going into 2013 won't measure up again.

[Jon Shepherd]

There are arguments both ways. First off, they do need to add some pieces. However most people were underwhelmed with what they did last year and we all know how that worked out. If 2012 taught us anything, it's that Duquette and Showalter at the very least know what they're doing with their personnel moves. I have no reason to doubt that whatever they do or don't do going into 2013 won't measure up again.

Just like the recent Powerball taught us that it is a solid option as a retirement approach.

Does Duquette deserve extra rope? Sure. Am I convinced that he is a cowboy? Not in the least.

[LanceRinker]

Just like the recent Powerball taught us that it is a solid option as a retirement approach.

Does Duquette deserve extra rope? Sure. Am I convinced that he is a cowboy? Not in the least.

Duquette - not a cowboy? C'mon - he has his own dog and pony show with how he answers questions from the media. That's pretty cowboy if you ask me. Plus I've heard he knows how to handle a lasso.

Wait..that's Buck with the lasso. Nvm. Carry on.

[SportsGuy]

There are arguments both ways. First off, they do need to add some pieces. However most people were underwhelmed with what they did last year and we all know how that worked out. If 2012 taught us anything, it's that Duquette and Showalter at the very least know what they're doing with their personnel moves. I have no reason to doubt that whatever they do or don't do going into 2013 won't measure up again.

Lets face it... He got pretty lucky with many of his moves last year. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good

[JeremyStrain]

Lets face it... He got pretty lucky with many of his moves last year. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good

#TRUTH

If they are really looking at a hard budget, and eating $25m per year for good guys Roberts and Markakis, plus Jones new deal it eats up wiggle room. So he's gotta hit big with some cheaper guys to make it work. You need depth...lots of it.

For all the talk that a lot of miracles need to happen, lets remember that not EVERYTHING aligned last year. There is room for improvement in a couple guys that could net a couple wins. Reimold for one, but I worry that if put in a platoon (and this is a big part of why I don't want to platoon him) because guys often won't hit their potential when playing part time (especially only against LHP).

[LanceRinker]

Here's an against the grain thought - if the payroll is a serious concern and you can't do much because of the money tied up into Roberts and Markakis - BRob is gone after next season and you could look to trade Kakes if the money means that much (as long as you do something significant with the savings).

[mweb08]

You could, but Keppinger will be in his age 33 season, the .806 OPS looks to be an outlier for him. The .367 OBP last year was by far and away his highest in a season. He doesn't add up to be a long term solution there and doesn't make our left side of the infield any better, or even keep it as it currently stands.

I'd look at Callaspo as he shouldn't cost a ton to trade for, but still...is a SS/3B combo of Machado/Callaspo as appealing as Machado/Hardy? I think Hardy should be a bit better than the .671 OPS from last year...even if he's not, 22 homers and 68 rbi from a SS is pretty sweet, combined with the defense.

I agree on Keppinger. Plus, he has a broken leg and despite that he had a great UZR at 3B in limited time last year, Law says he's not someone you really want consistently at any position. If after doing some due diligence on his defense, it checked out as decent, I wouldn't be opposed to him, but I expect a big drop-off with the bat next year.

I believe the Angels are planning on starting Callaspo next year so I don't know that he's very available.

[RichardZ]

Lets face it... He got pretty lucky with many of his moves last year. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good

Next time you're right about something, just remind us that you were just lucky. LOL

He made a lot of low end moves with some upside. Some worked out. He's already done some nice "under the radar" moves with Casilla, Navarro, and Valencia. Casilla could be a regular and Navarro is a middle infielder with offensive upside. He's upgraded the talent on the 40man with very subtle moves. When one pays off it's not luck, it's the residue of design.

I have no problem trading Johnson or Hardy but I also can see bringing back essentially the same cast as last year. You say if we stand pat we have to "hope". Well, if you make changes you have to "hope" too.

[SportsGuy]

Next time you're right about something, just remind us that you were just lucky. LOL

He made a lot of low end moves with some upside. Some worked out. He's already done some nice "under the radar" moves with Casilla, Navarro, and Valencia. Casilla could be a regular and Navarro is a middle infielder with offensive upside. He's upgraded the talent on the 40man with very subtle moves. When one pays off it's not luck, it's the residue of design.

I have no problem trading Johnson or Hardy but I also can see bringing back essentially the same cast as last year. You say if we stand pat we have to "hope". Well, if you make changes you have to "hope" too.

I would rather hope with more talent and a better long term outlook.

[Moose Milligan]

Trading Hardy and J. Johnson both allows this team a great deal more financial flexibility, receive some decent prospects/ML ready talent in return, and still have enough depth in the bullpen and minors to have minimal damage done to the bullpen.

We shouldn't expect the bullpen to play at 2012 levels next season and beyond (not talking to you SG, but those in general who think it's likely they do - or even anything close to it). We do have enough depth in the bp and minors to warrant trading J. Johnson and still be a top 12 bullpen in baseball.

The financial flexibility and players received in return make it worthwhile to me mostly though.

Hardy is owed 7 million for 2013 and 2014. That's a decent amount of money, but it's not the biggest salary around...it's certainly not a backbreaker and it shouldn't prohibit us from doing anything else. I'm not exactly sure the type of prospects we'd receive back for him, but I agree they should be pretty good.

I don't think the bullpen will play to 2012 levels but to me I don't think that's a reason why you should trade JJ...rather, it's a reason you should keep him as you don't know who in the bullpen will maintain productivity and who will fall off. I happen to think Strop just got tired at the end of last year, but what if that's what he's really going to turn out to be? Can he handle closing? Again, I don't expect it to play to 2012 levels but you seem to think there will be a bad falloff, yet we should still be a top 12 bullpen even if we do trade JJ. I'm not so sure of the logic behind that thought process other than we know bullpens are volatile from year to year. Specifically how volatile remains to be seen.

This also seems to be the time of year where we love to point out flaws in our players (JJ's low k/9 rate, Hardy's low OBP) and seem to think that no one we trade them to will be smart enough to look at those and offer us a lesser return than what we'd like to see.

EDIT: Again, I don't see any immediate resolution to what hole would be left in the left side of the infield, whether you keep Manny at third or move him to SS. I haven't read the whole thread but I haven't seen a proposal that'd keep the left side as good or even make an improvement over where it currently stands. I realize that we'd get back some nice cool " 'spects" that'd help us elsewhere with these trades but it seems like we're just unplugging another hole in the dam.

[SportsGuy]

Hardy is owed 7 million for 2013 and 2014. That's a decent amount of money, but it's not the biggest salary around...it's certainly not a backbreaker and it shouldn't prohibit us from doing anything else. I'm not exactly sure the type of prospects we'd receive back for him, but I agree they should be pretty good.

I don't think the bullpen will play to 2012 levels but to me I don't think that's a reason why you should trade JJ...rather, it's a reason you should keep him as you don't know who in the bullpen will maintain productivity and who will fall off. I happen to think Strop just got tired at the end of last year, but what if that's what he's really going to turn out to be? Can he handle closing? Again, I don't expect it to play to 2012 levels but you seem to think there will be a bad falloff, yet we should still be a top 12 bullpen even if we do trade JJ. I'm not so sure of the logic behind that thought process other than we know bullpens are volatile from year to year. Specifically how volatile remains to be seen.

This also seems to be the time of year where we love to point out flaws in our players (JJ's low k/9 rate, Hardy's low OBP) and seem to think that no one we trade them to will be smart enough to look at those and offer us a lesser return than what we'd like to see.

Well, if the return isn't there, you keep them..its pretty simple.

Very obvious why we should be looking to move him. If a team will give us what the Pads got for Mike Adams(or even more than that), then you pull the trigger.

If the team believes they several closer candidates(and they do) and they can save money plus get some good players for JJ, it would be dumb not to deal him.

[FlavaDave10]

Carry on guys.

Seriously though, I can see arguments for both sides, but I think I stand closer to the middle. I think they need some minor tweaking and additions, but I think for the most part the team from last year plus a full year of Nick, Manny and Nate could contend. I'd probably argue that the early season addition of Bundy COULD be enough of a pick up, but there are a lot of if's in that equation and I think that's what scares SG.

This team could prove to be a goldmine if they come out and continue their second half success, or it could bomb, and none of us are sure cause we've seen the ups and downs of some of these guys.

Pretty much my stance. My stance moves towards "standing still" with every ludicrously expensive contracts free agents this year are getting. And outside of Machado, Bundy, and Schoop, we don't really have any attractive prospects in the minors.

[SportsGuy]

http://www.masnsport... ... -2012.html

[SportsGuy]

I agree with Roch but I think what went right outweighs what went wrong.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I've written a similar piece several times.

There will be regression in some areas, there will be improvement in others.

Anyone that claims everything went right for the O's last year, was not paying attention.

[dpsmith22]

I agree Chris, that things did not go well.

However, that is also the main reason I don't agree that the O's don't need to add outside talent.

Our offense is not strong enough IF/WHEN injuries occur and there are too many question marks.

IF we had an outside bat last year we beat the Yankees. IF we had Markakis in the lineup, we probably beat them too. But that's the point, injuries happen and the monster combo of Mclouth/Reimold/Betemit/Valencia are NOT enough production in the DH and LF spots, in the AL East.

My solution is Michael Morse. I actually preferred him over Morales and many of the other options that were/are out there, including LaRoche. I like his ability to hit the ball the other way with power. It should play very nicely in OPACY. His average OBP is around .350, quite a bit higher than our other sluggers.

I am also still strongly in favor of adding Marcum, for many reasons, that would be a different thread.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I agree Chris, that things did not go well.

However, that is also the main reason I don't agree that the O's don't need to add outside talent.

Our offense is not strong enough IF/WHEN injuries occur and there are too many question marks.

IF we had an outside bat last year we beat the Yankees. IF we had Markakis in the lineup, we probably beat them too. But that's the point, injuries happen and the monster combo of Mclouth/Reimold/Betemit/Valencia are NOT enough production in the DH and LF spots, in the AL East.

My solution is Michael Morse. I actually preferred him over Morales and many of the other options that were/are out there, including LaRoche. I like his ability to hit the ball the other way with power. It should play very nicely in OPACY. His average OBP is around .350, quite a bit higher than our other sluggers.

I am also still strongly in favor of adding Marcum, for many reasons, that would be a different thread.

Don't get me wrong, there were things that did go right last year. My only constant point is that not everything did.

Like you, I do continue to have some interest in Morse. If LaRoche winds up back with the Nationals, and you get Morse fairly cheaply, that would be attractive.

The longer Marcum is out there, the cheaper you figure he gets. The cheaper he gets (in contract length and salary), the less concerned I am about the injury concerns. He would be interesting to bring in, and have your doctors take a look.

[dpsmith22]

-Absolutely the price has to be right for Morse, however, since we are over-valuing our players (sadly, its "as usual"), a deal might be difficult. Rumor was for Patton as they need a lefty. I would make that deal. Matsuz could be "Patton" if we choose to make him a reliever full time....Although I personally don't agree with that move.

-We have FAR too many 4-5 type starters for 1 spot in the rotation. Many of them are going to be wasted if they are not dealt.

-DD IMO, is holding onto players that have low value in the hopes that they gain some. The issue with that theory is that since they won't be in the big leagues, their value won't rise that much even if they excel in AAA. ALL of our young pitchers Arrieta, BMat, Britton, Johnson, have all had good numbers in AAA already.

-Marcum to me is a no brainer as long as he is healthy. He pitched in Sept and 1 start in Oct, so my feeling is, that is and will be ready to go in 2013. EVERY pitcher is a pitch away from the DL.

-Knowing PA's hesitance to sign pitchers with injury histories, I doubt we will even be a player on Marcum.

[dpsmith22]

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=9QS-izuwpxQ

Watching the homers Morse hits, makes me realize that he is no fluke. He is hitting homers on good fastballs in and breaking stuff away. Many of the homers are on breaking pitches down below the zone.