18 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

http://www.mlbtrader... ... ching.html

Bet we could get him cheap. Much rather add him vs guys like McCarthy or Saunders.

Owed 9.5M next year.

http://www.fangraphs... ... position=P

[SportsGuy]

Would you deal Avery and Steve Johnson for Floyd and 3ish million?

[ravens8589]

Would you deal Avery and Steve Johnson for Floyd and 3ish million?

Maybe. I think fairly highly of Johnson, but getting Floyd would be pretty good. Taking 3 mil. off his salary, I may pull the trigger.

[Brobey]

Would you deal Avery and Steve Johnson for Floyd and 3ish million?

Yes I would if that's all it would take to get him. Worry a little about the amount of fly balls Floyd gives up but with the contracts FAs are getting this year, I would rather see the O's make a move like this than overpay for a SP.

[JeffLong]

In my eyes:

McCarthy > Floyd > Saunders

Sports Guy, I love that your blind hatred of McCarthy leads you to being ok with trading players for a guy who has worse peripherals and just plain worse counting stats than McCarthy, who we'd be able to get for nothing other than cash.

[BSLChrisStoner]

In my eyes:

McCarthy > Floyd > Saunders

Sports Guy, I love that your blind hatred of McCarthy leads you to being ok with trading players for a guy who has worse peripherals and just plain worse counting stats than McCarthy, who we'd be able to get for nothing other than cash.

The most important counting stat between the two might be Floyd's 5 consecutive years of 168+ innings (and at-least 29 starts) vs. McCarthy throwing 170 innings once, and reaching 25 starts once.

They are the same age.

While I typically agree with just spending cash, as opposed to trading prospects (from a system without a ton of depth), SG is suggesting a guy that profiles to never be better than a 4th OF, and a guy that likely is nothing more than a swing starter, and more likely a bullpen arm.

I don't think that is a huge price to pay.

[NewMarketSean]

I think Johnson can be better than Floyd.

Who was it who said Johnson had an "invisiball?" I like that.

[JeremyStrain]

Not sure how Floyd would pitch here. Saw a small sample size that Saunders might do really well here. If Saunders signs for something cheap, I'd rather take the chance there I think. Either way, unless you are adding a clear ace and Floyd isn't better than other pitchers we have, you are adding a guy to the back of the rotation and I'd rather not give anything up for that. I'd be willing to bet that Britton does better than Floyd this year, so even if it's only Avery and Johnson, that's too much for me to give up for him.

[SportsGuy]

In my eyes:

McCarthy > Floyd > Saunders

Sports Guy, I love that your blind hatred of McCarthy leads you to being ok with trading players for a guy who has worse peripherals and just plain worse counting stats than McCarthy, who we'd be able to get for nothing other than cash.

Floyd misses bats...BM doesn't.

Floyd is above league average in Ks...BM is below average.

Other than last year, Floyd has shown great control and even last year it wasn't that bad.

Floyd has been every bit the GB pitcher McCarthy has.

Floyd has been successful in a hitters park, while McCarthy had to go to a pitchers park to be successful.

Floyd has been durable..McCarthy hasn't been.

Oh and we don't have to get into a long term committment either.

All we would be losing, in the proposal I said, are 2 likely role players and a little bit of cash.

[SportsGuy]

Not sure how Floyd would pitch here. Saw a small sample size that Saunders might do really well here. If Saunders signs for something cheap, I'd rather take the chance there I think. Either way, unless you are adding a clear ace and Floyd isn't better than other pitchers we have, you are adding a guy to the back of the rotation and I'd rather not give anything up for that. I'd be willing to bet that Britton does better than Floyd this year, so even if it's only Avery and Johnson, that's too much for me to give up for him.

I would bet on Floyd being more durable and better than anyone in the rotation outside of Hammel.

Now, would I rather have Britton get those innings? Yes I would.

But there isn't one guy on the team right now that you can point to and say, that guy will definitely give us 180+ innings and do it successfully.

SJ and Avery are nothing to trade, so that shouldn't even be the consideration in this...The discussion is exactly what you said, does Floyd represent an upgrade over what we have. IMO, yes he does and he is obviously much more of a sure thing.

Also, i think we are going to trade someone as well, so we will need to fill the rotation spot.

Floyd is likely a buy low candidate and is only signed for this year...that is what we should be looking for unless they are going to go out and sign one of the top guys.

[JeremyStrain]

I would bet on Floyd being more durable and better than anyone in the rotation outside of Hammel.

Now, would I rather have Britton get those innings? Yes I would.

But there isn't one guy on the team right now that you can point to and say, that guy will definitely give us 180+ innings and do it successfully.

SJ and Avery are nothing to trade, so that shouldn't even be the consideration in this...The discussion is exactly what you said, does Floyd represent an upgrade over what we have. IMO, yes he does and he is obviously much more of a sure thing.

Also, i think we are going to trade someone as well, so we will need to fill the rotation spot.

Floyd is likely a buy low candidate and is only signed for this year...that is what we should be looking for unless they are going to go out and sign one of the top guys.

They are asking for a top 100 prospect for him, so you are going to have to give up more than SJ and Avery, and I get that he's consistent, but I'd much rather risk that Britton or whoever will put up better than a 4.2 ERA over the season. Just a preference.

[SportsGuy]

They are asking for a top 100 prospect for him, so you are going to have to give up more than SJ and Avery, and I get that he's consistent, but I'd much rather risk that Britton or whoever will put up better than a 4.2 ERA over the season. Just a preference.

I doubt they get that top 100 prospect for him and you can argue that a guy like Johnson represents more value than that, depending on where the prospect is in terms of the minors and where on the top 100 list they are. In other words, they could value the guy that helps them now vs the guy that MAY help them a few years down the road.

If the WS like Johnson as a starter, that represents exactly what they want and why they would get rid of Floyd..they want a cheap, back of the rotation starter.

[JeffLong]

Floyd misses bats...BM doesn't.
swinging strike rate: Floyd = 9.8%, McCarthy 7.1%
Yes, technically he does miss more bats. My rebuttal however:

O-contact% (contact on pitches outside the strikezone) Floyd = 61.3%, McCarthy = 73.7%
McCarthy clearly gets more contact on pitches that aren't drive-able than Floyd.

Floyd is above league average in Ks...BM is below average.
K% - Floyd = 19.9%, McCarthy = 15.6%
Yes, Floyd gets more Ks.

Other than last year, Floyd has shown great control and even last year it wasn't that bad.
K/BB - Floyd = 2.29 (not even a career low), McCarthy = 3.04

Floyd has been every bit the GB pitcher McCarthy has.
GB% - Floyd = 47.2%, McCarthy = 40.5%
Yes, Floyd got more groundballs last year.

Using FIP to compare how good each guy was ignoring their defensive support though...
FIP - Floyd = 4.46, McCarthy = 3.76

Floyd has been successful in a hitters park, while McCarthy had to go to a pitchers park to be successful.
Your assertion here is that McCarthy couldn't be successful in a hitters park with his reportoire. Ironically, since he changed his approach he's had a similar FB% yet lower HR/FB rate than Floyd. You could argue from this information that he would in fact perform better than Floyd in a hitter's park.


Floyd has been durable..McCarthy hasn't been.
This is valid. However, he doesn't have any injury concerns as of right now since his shoulder issue was minimal. Obviously shoulders are terrifying, but his injury was not a concern.

Oh and we don't have to get into a long term committment either.
There is nothing that suggests McCarthy will require a "long-term" commitment. He'll likely sign for less than 3 years, most likely 1 or 2 with a team option.

All we would be losing, in the proposal I said, are 2 likely role players and a little bit of cash.
I think Johnson has the potential to be a good bullpen arm, or a second division 4/5. You're making the claim that he's worthless, yet in the same thread arguing that he's arguably worth the same as a lower end top 100 prospect. Which is it?

[SportsGuy]

Role players are worthless? Interesting theory there. I agree that SJ can be a BP arm...but so can a lot of guys we have.

McCarthy will give up more homers in OPACY and his numbers will be worse because of it.

McCarthy likely gets 2 years and maybe 3. Long term enough for someone who has had 1 good year.

And yes, he had a better FIP than Floyd...last year. Floyd has generally been much better across the board in their careers.

[JeffLong]

Role players are worthless? Interesting theory there. I agree that SJ can be a BP arm...but so can a lot of guys we have.

McCarthy will give up more homers in OPACY and his numbers will be worse because of it.

McCarthy likely gets 2 years and maybe 3. Long term enough for someone who has had 1 good year.

And yes, he had a better FIP than Floyd...last year. Floyd has generally been much better across the board in their careers.

You can't keep ignoring McCarthy's change in approach. He's a completely different pitcher. When looking at Hammel do you address all the years he struggled in Colorado or do you acknowledge he made a fundamental shift and is now a different pitcher?

[SportsGuy]

You can't keep ignoring McCarthy's change in approach. He's a completely different pitcher. When looking at Hammel do you address all the years he struggled in Colorado or do you acknowledge he made a fundamental shift and is now a different pitcher?

I havent ignored it...But that new fantastic approach has produced one good year and one decent year...and you saw his GB% drop dramatically after 1 season.

If I were a team in a pitcher's park, McCarthy would be a guy I look at...But a guy who isn't an extreme GB pitcher, doesn't miss bats and doesn't get Ks isn't someone that i would be all that excited to get.

And, on top of that, he has never thrown 171 innings in his ML career and is coming off 2 big injuries just this year.

[mweb08]

Would you deal Avery and Steve Johnson for Floyd and 3ish million?

I like Steve and Floyd is no better than some guys we have and some guys that can be had somewhat cheaply in free agency imo, so no. If the O's were to deal Tillman and/or other starters I'd be more interested in Floyd, but would prefer to McCarthy for instance depending on the cost.

[SportsGuy]

Also hearing the same thing I hear every year at this time. #orioles interested in Gavin Floyd. One of these days, they may actually get him

From Roch.

[SportsGuy]

@BNightengale: With the #WhiteSox signing Jeff Keppinger to a 3-year, $12 million deal, their next order of business is trade talks involving Gavin Floyd.