13 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

A breakdown of Buck's choice and use of closers through his manager history. This might help give some insight to just how available Johnson is, and who any potential replacements could be.

http://camdendepot.b...rs-closers.html

[SportsGuy]

I hope we have a new closer in 2013.

[JeremyStrain]

I hope we have a new closer in 2013.

I knew you were going to say that.

That's why I started looking to see if he was one of those guys that found a good closer and kept him at all costs or if he would just go to the next guy and move along.

[Mackus]

Johnson's definitely gonna be back, so I don't see the need to really belabor this point too much.

I also don't see much of an argument for trading Johnson unless we're getting a really promising piece back, which I just don't see happening in the offseason. Closer's bring good hauls at the deadline, but I can't remember many big trades for closer's in the offseason. Andrew Bailey had about as much value last year as Johnson does now, and he only brought back Redick, who wasn't that promising before this year, IMO. If all we can get is a guy that we think might be able to play LF in a platoon or something like that, I'm keeping Johnson, even at about $7M for the year. Good teams need good a good closer, and the Orioles plan on being a good team. I would also love to bring in another option like Koji and our already in-house options, but I don't cut bait with Johnson unless a much more enticing return is being discussed.

[JeremyStrain]

Johnson's definitely gonna be back, so I don't see the need to really belabor this point too much.

I also don't see much of an argument for trading Johnson unless we're getting a really promising piece back, which I just don't see happening in the offseason. Closer's bring good hauls at the deadline, but I can't remember many big trades for closer's in the offseason. Andrew Bailey had about as much value last year as Johnson does now, and he only brought back Redick, who wasn't that promising before this year, IMO. If all we can get is a guy that we think might be able to play LF in a platoon or something like that, I'm keeping Johnson, even at about $7M for the year. Good teams need good a good closer, and the Orioles plan on being a good team. I would also love to bring in another option like Koji and our already in-house options, but I don't cut bait with Johnson unless a much more enticing return is being discussed.

I like Johnson, I think he's rock solid, but I also think he's the easiest to replace member of this team with any real value. The Bailey return was a pretty good one for OAK, Urbina back in 2003 had similar value, maybe not even as high, and that returned AGonz.

I know he's been discussed in trade talks already, whether something comes of that or not, who knows, but the winter meetings will be telling this year.

[Mackus]

I'd be shocked if they traded him. Not necessarily against the move, but shocked.

[JeremyStrain]

I'd be shocked if they traded him. Not necessarily against the move, but shocked.

I would have been too if you told me a month ago, but heard teams have called and weren't told no. Value is priced high as it should be, it won't be a salary dump or a moderate return if it happens, but I could be open to it, if it yields another ML piece or two.

[SportsGuy]

I knew you were going to say that.

That's why I started looking to see if he was one of those guys that found a good closer and kept him at all costs or if he would just go to the next guy and move along.

I think we have plenty of candidates, which you did a good job of outlining.

I also think there are potential bargains out there, like a Koji, who could do the same or better job for less money, plus we have the guys we get back for JJ.

Here's what I wonder...Duquette has been pretty straight forward about the economics of the Orioles and how they cant contend with the big boys in terms of money. Right now, let's just say he is right...whether that is because we actually can't yet or PA won't spend, doesn't really matter. What matters is that it isn't happening at this time.

So, with that being the case and the Orioles obviously saying, we need to upgrade the offense and pitching staff, why wouldn't they deal JJ and his likely 6-7 million dollar contract when you have so many other options for a lot less money?

[Mackus]

So, with that being the case and the Orioles obviously saying, we need to upgrade the offense and pitching staff, why wouldn't they deal JJ and his likely 6-7 million dollar contract when you have so many other options for a lot less money?

Because $7M still isn't that much money and the "cheaper" options we could sign like Koji will still likely cost about $3M or so. I think the savings in going from Johnson to Koji isn't worth the potential risk your adding. I do think that Koji at about $3M is worth signing along with retaining Johnson.

But, mostly, it comes down to what we could get in return for Johnson. I think you (and sounds like AS as well) have a higher opinion of what he would bring back in a trade than I do, rather than us differing so much on if he's expendable or on what we'd need to get back in order to move him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Here's what I wonder...Duquette has been pretty straight forward about the economics of the Orioles and how they cant contend with the big boys in terms of money. Right now, let's just say he is right...whether that is because we actually can't yet or PA won't spend, doesn't really matter. What matters is that it isn't happening at this time.

So, with that being the case and the Orioles obviously saying, we need to upgrade the offense and pitching staff, why wouldn't they deal JJ and his likely 6-7 million dollar contract when you have so many other options for a lot less money?

If this is the case, it would be because they disagree with the assertion that Johnson can be replaced by others who would do an equal or better job.

Also because they just had their first winning season since '97, and they would view Johnson as one of the primary reasons that success occurred.

Basically, they would think that Johnson is more than a dime a dozen easily replaceable closer... and closer to being elite at the 'position.'

[JeremyStrain]

I think we have plenty of candidates, which you did a good job of outlining.

I also think there are potential bargains out there, like a Koji, who could do the same or better job for less money, plus we have the guys we get back for JJ.

Here's what I wonder...Duquette has been pretty straight forward about the economics of the Orioles and how they cant contend with the big boys in terms of money. Right now, let's just say he is right...whether that is because we actually can't yet or PA won't spend, doesn't really matter. What matters is that it isn't happening at this time.

So, with that being the case and the Orioles obviously saying, we need to upgrade the offense and pitching staff, why wouldn't they deal JJ and his likely 6-7 million dollar contract when you have so many other options for a lot less money?

Yeah that's kinda what I think. If you look at the numbers each closer put up for Buck (wanted to do it, but ran out of time) they all had pretty great statistical years, I think that's a result of Buck and his great BP handling, which Jon touched on in a post a couple weeks ago.

Any guy you put in that role is going to do better than other guys with Buck at the helm, and if they have the skills, they will excel in it. I think almost any one of the Calvary (at least the ones that don't get traded) have a good shot and being great in that role.

Freeing up 7m, using cheaper assets so that we don't lose them or trade them, and bringing back other ML pieces could work. The problem is that the teams looking to deal for a closer will wait until the FA have signed (should be locked up this week) and then only the contenders will trade anything, how many of them have ML pieces they are willing to deal for a closer?

[JeremyStrain]

If this is the case, it would be because they disagree with the assertion that Johnson can be replaced by others who would do an equal or better job.

Also because they just had their first winning season since '97, and they would view Johnson as one of the primary reasons that success occurred.

Basically, they would think that Johnson is more than a dime a dozen easily replaceable closer... and closer to being elite at the 'position.'

Valid point, but the one scenario you missed is that they view other guys already under team control and cheaper as good of closers as JJ. No sense wasting some if you can get value from one. I know Buck is high on a couple guys being able to close if needed. Someone asked who he'd go to if JJ got hurt, and his answer was something like I've got 2-3 guys in mind that could step in and do very well there.

Not that they don't value JJ highly, but if you already have another guy that can close, it is a trade asset, when you don't have many.

[SportsGuy]

Because $7M still isn't that much money and the "cheaper" options we could sign like Koji will still likely cost about $3M or so. I think the savings in going from Johnson to Koji isn't worth the potential risk your adding. I do think that Koji at about $3M is worth signing along with retaining Johnson.

But, mostly, it comes down to what we could get in return for Johnson. I think you (and sounds like AS as well) have a higher opinion of what he would bring back in a trade than I do, rather than us differing so much on if he's expendable or on what we'd need to get back in order to move him.

7 million is still a lot...and a 4 million dollar difference can be significant.

On top of that, you add in a younger, cheaper ML piece or 2 that can be put on the 25 man roster(or at leats a piece close to being on the 25 man roster) and that player(s) doesn't cost much.

[SportsGuy]

If this is the case, it would be because they disagree with the assertion that Johnson can be replaced by others who would do an equal or better job.

Also because they just had their first winning season since '97, and they would view Johnson as one of the primary reasons that success occurred.

Basically, they would think that Johnson is more than a dime a dozen easily replaceable closer... and closer to being elite at the 'position.'

Well, let's hope that they don't think this because if they do, they are overvaluing and overrating Johnson, as well as the closer position itself....while also underrating guys who are already here and cheaper options that are available on the FA/trade market.