17 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Baseball: With Orioles down to 2 and 3 prospects on top 100 lists, should that be a concern?

https://www.baltimor...at-be-a-concern

 

 

 

No, not a concern.
Graduated a lot of talent.
System will be replenished, and start swinging back up.
Do need to start showing results on the International side.

[Mackus]

I think the early returns under Elias were wildly unsustainable.  You just don't hit on that many draft picks in such a short period of time.  It's not repeatable.  It was a great job, and I have lots of confidence in their abilities to draft and sign and develop talent, but I think they're merely good/great amongst the best in baseball and not orders of magnitude better than 2nd place like their performance from '19 thru '22 would indicate.

 

Kind of like the Ravens drafting in their first decade.  Ozzie and then DeCosta are great at drafting, I firmly believe they're among the best in the sport at doing it, but they streak of Ogden, Lewis, Boulware, McAlister, Starks, McAlister, Lewis, Taylor, Heap, Reed, and Suggs before ending with Boller is unsustainable for even the best team.  That's an insane hit streak one #1 overall picks.

[Mackus]

My only concern fundamentally with this scouting department is how will they find pitching?  They obviously think that hitters are safer and more projectable from ages 16-21.  I don't have any issue with that mindset, but I do think they take things too far with how hitter-dominant they are with allocating their resources.  

[mdrunning]

As indicated above, nothing can deplete a farm system quicker than having players graduate to the majors. It was the same under Andy MacPhail when guys like Manny and Wieters were promoted. Difference back then was once Dan started trading prospects for veterans, the talent dried up fast and wasn't being replenished given the organization's philosophies regarding scouting and player development as well as the international market.

 

I think the franchise is better set up now to replace some of the minor league talent lost, which is something Elias has emphasized since the day he was hired.

[Mackus]

Another thing that gives me confidence is that only Adley and Holliday were uber-high, almost guaranteed to be good draft picks.  Cowser and Kjerstad were drafted very high but were underslot guys who you'd peg at about 10th overall in talent, so that's still a high pick but its a pretty steep decline from true #1 caliber picks and then guys who go late top-10 or lower.  There is very little difference between guys in the mid-20s where we'll be drafting from now on and guys in the high single digits to low teens, so don't think drafting later will be a big difference for Elias and co.  They've already demonstrated some good success in that range of the draft with Gunnar and Westburg as huge hits and Stowers and Norby as lesser successes.  TBD on recent picks in this range like Honeycutt, O'Farrell, Bradfield, Beavers, and Wagner. 

 

I would again argue that the early success in those areas is going to be very hard to repeat as it seems like an outlier, but I trust them as much as basically anyone else to continue finding and developing talent.

[dude]

1) Not a concern

 

2) I still have my concerns about the 22-23 drafts and think with 24 (and upcoming), we'll get back to a better hit rate.

 

3) I don't really care (I do, but I don't) what you have to give up to get what you want (you go get more) but we've been giving up too much to get too little.  Again, I don't care too much, other than it being an indicator for something else important to continued success.

 

4) We don't seem to have an attitude of building the minors in recent years.  Every narrative seems to be "trade this guy for a pitcher".  Teams get WAY too far wrapped up in the every move in a NOW season must be for NOW.  That's how you burn up your Organization, both in terms of building up Talent and stagnating Talent at the top.  Build in 3-5 year windows (not the rebuilding "windows") and take care of people.  You have to trust players and they need to trust the organization. 

 

5) I like the draft philosophy so keep doing what creates opportunity.  They need to have a better plan for acquiring pitching, but hopefully they grow there at some point.

[BobPhelan]

My only concern fundamentally with this scouting department is how will they find pitching? They obviously think that hitters are safer and more projectable from ages 16-21. I don't have any issue with that mindset, but I do think they take things too far with how hitter-dominant they are with allocating their resources.

The pitching is here (I know nobody will believe it until they see it). Kiley McDaniel has Michael Forret in his top 150 and predicted Trey Gibson will be in his top 100 next year. Nestor German is getting similar helium. Keeler Morfe has the upside of a true ace - 18 in low A, sitting 97-98 touching 100, 90-92 mph changeup with significant run, 60 grade sweeper. Plus plenty more. I’ll keep preaching it, you guys will show up to mass eventually.

[BobPhelan]

But I agree it’s not much of a concern. International prospects are permeating full season ball now, the aforementioned pitchers are breaking out, big draft coming up. Can make more trades like Billy Cook for Patrick Reilly.

[makoman]

I just lol at a 92 change up with run, like wtf is that? Hitting is so hard compared to like the 70s

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah, I need to see performance at at least AA before I start to believe anything. They also seemingly had an ugly split from their former pitching coach/ minor league pitching coordinator. I cant believe that was a good signt about how they felt about the pitching when Holt got demoted and then fired in successive seasons

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I just lol at a 92 change up with run, like wtf is that? Hitting is so hard compared to like the 70s

Pfft. No silly, the hitters back then were just so much better

[Mackus]

The pitching is here (I know nobody will believe it until they see it). Kiley McDaniel has Michael Forret in his top 150 and predicted Trey Gibson will be in his top 100 next year. Nestor German is getting similar helium. Keeler Morfe has the upside of a true ace - 18 in low A, sitting 97-98 touching 100, 90-92 mph changeup with significant run, 60 grade sweeper. Plus plenty more. I’ll keep preaching it, you guys will show up to mass eventually.

I hope you're right, but even if they uncover some gems in the present it's gonna feel unsustainable if they continue only using like 10-20% of their resources on pitching and the rest on hitters. I just don't see how they can keep up when barely dipping their toes in the water.

[Mackus]

Can make more trades like Billy Cook for Patrick Reilly.

This is an avenue I'd be excited to see them pursue. Seems like a necessity given the allocation of draft picks and international dollars, and would make the approach make a lot more sense.

[dude]

The pitching is here (I know nobody will believe it until they see it). Kiley McDaniel has Michael Forret in his top 150 and predicted Trey Gibson will be in his top 100 next year. Nestor German is getting similar helium. Keeler Morfe has the upside of a true ace - 18 in low A, sitting 97-98 touching 100, 90-92 mph changeup with significant run, 60 grade sweeper. Plus plenty more. I’ll keep preaching it, you guys will show up to mass eventually.

 

Bob, we're entering year 7 and you're claiming victory on guys that are 3 years away still....to get their debuts, let alone produce anything over time.  

 

I'm fine with them being awesome and I'm not arguing to "draft more pitchers" or whatever, but there's a reality on the pitching side that's basically been zero production from draft/develop.

 

They've done well with the waiver wire and other fringe guys turning straw into gold, but we're still a long way from claiming anything on the draft/develop side with pitching.

[BobPhelan]

Bob, we're entering year 7 and you're claiming victory on guys that are 3 years away still....to get their debuts, let alone produce anything over time.  

 

I'm fine with them being awesome and I'm not arguing to "draft more pitchers" or whatever, but there's a reality on the pitching side that's basically been zero production from draft/develop.

 

They've done well with the waiver wire and other fringe guys turning straw into gold, but we're still a long way from claiming anything on the draft/develop side with pitching.

 

Does Kyle Bradish not count? Felix Bautista? It took a few drafts to zero in on what they're looking for in the later rounds but they've got it now. But they also traded for Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott who they've also developed to major leaguers. Brandon Young was an undrafted free agent who was close to making his major league debut late last year. Kremer is a solid innings eater who they just developed a new changeup/splitter with. Finishing touches on Cano.

 

I just don't see much different between drafting a pitcher or trading for one who is still a prospect. And it isn't just me that is lauding the Orioles pitching development, smart people who pay attention to the minor leagues also put us up there amongst the best in the game including Baseball America.

[dude]

Does Kyle Bradish not count? Felix Bautista? It took a few drafts to zero in on what they're looking for in the later rounds but they've got it now. But they also traded for Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott who they've also developed to major leaguers. Brandon Young was an undrafted free agent who was close to making his major league debut late last year. Kremer is a solid innings eater who they just developed a new changeup/splitter with. Finishing touches on Cano.

 

They all count, in different categories.  You can't draw the circle around (all pitching) and claim victory for all groups within that larger circle for the [more narrow] groups inside of the larger circle.

 

We're headed into year 7 and Young (who I count on the draft/develop side) will be the first guy in that category to record an out.  You can smooth over that and pretend whatever, but you're talking about (the group at A-ball last year) guys that are still a long way off.

 

You want to claim success on guys like Povich and McDerrmott, but they aren't anything yet.

 

I'll keep pointing it out to the chagrin of some, but you don't/didn't need to throw away seasons to get to guys like Bradish, Kremer, Bautista.  If Reilly is another guy, awesome, we got him in a 'competitive' season. We 'found' Suarez in a 'competitive' season.  Years ago, we found Rodrigo in a 'competitive' season.  You don't have to lose to be good at the job, you just have to be good at the job.

 

The Orioles have had wild success with waiver claims, especially in the bullpen.  Awesome.  Credit for that. A+.  Keep leaning into the things they do well.  

 

I just don't see much different between drafting a pitcher or trading for one who is still a prospect. 

 

Data.  Data is the difference. 

 

I'm probably the only person here not telling them to do something different with the draft.  Keep drafting the Talent that you have a higher probability of hitting on.  College hitters have BY FAR the most data to consider.  We need to be better at converting the pile of Talent to whatever (external), but in the meantime keep building the Talent pile. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Does Kyle Bradish not count? Felix Bautista? It took a few drafts to zero in on what they're looking for in the later rounds but they've got it now. But they also traded for Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott who they've also developed to major leaguers. Brandon Young was an undrafted free agent who was close to making his major league debut late last year. Kremer is a solid innings eater who they just developed a new changeup/splitter with. Finishing touches on Cano.

 

I just don't see much different between drafting a pitcher or trading for one who is still a prospect. And it isn't just me that is lauding the Orioles pitching development, smart people who pay attention to the minor leagues also put us up there amongst the best in the game including Baseball America.

My definition of a major leaguer is clearly different than yours.....lol

[BobPhelan]

They made it to the majors? Povich had a fantastic final month in the rotation.