408 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I'm just on the verge of being in the "blow it up" crowd. The only thing keeping me from being fully committed to that approach is the possibility of the young pitching bouncing back and being what we thought they would (cue Denny Green).

If Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton can all be legit #2/3 or better starters, then I don't think we're doomed with our current incarnation of the team, and instead could look to add to the team as opposed to rebuild. If we can't develop 3 very good starters from our current crop of young starters then I do think we are effectively capped as a mediocre team with this core. We won't have the money to add enough FA pitching (or prospects to trade for it) if we've gotta fill 2 or 3 spots worth of good starters. But, if we can fill 3 spots internally, we can add a 4th through FA/trade, and then patch in the 5th with a cheap FA or journeyman prospect type, I feel the offense is good enough that we can add one big FA piece there and be a solid offense, but there's no point in doing that unless the pitching is going to be good enough to really compete.

My approach would be to essentially do what we've done this offseason. Look for bargains and potential bounce back types without being overly risky on contracts (although I'd go after Fielder if his price remains in the 5-6 years @ $20-22M per, that's a good deal for him, but he'll sign that elsewhere if that's his market) and head into the season with largely the same core. Then you have 3 months to see if the young pitching will bounce back and be effective, or if it's a lost cause. If it's a lost cause, I firesale. The only guys I hold onto are Wieters and any of the young starters that are pitching well under under 3 years service time (my guess is only Britton), and if the offers are huge for anyone I want to hold onto, I consider even moving them. Jones goes. Guthrie goes. Johnson goes. Roberts goes. Markakis goes. Hardy goes. Reynolds goes. Anyone with value and over 3 years service time gets moved. I think the return on Guthrie will be less at the deadline than it would be now, but I'm willing to pay that price to take one more chance that this core of starting pitching can get the job done. Jones should bring similar value in return in July as he would right now, I don't think you'll lose much of your return by waiting with him (barring injury or an awful season), and mostly I'm using the Pence and Bourn trades last year to justify that opinion.

[SportsGuy]

I'm just on the verge of being in the "blow it up" crowd. The only thing keeping me from being fully committed to that approach is the possibility of the young pitching bouncing back and being what we thought they would (cue Denny Green).

If Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton can all be legit #2/3 or better starters, then I don't think we're doomed with our current incarnation of the team, and instead could look to add to the team as opposed to rebuild. If we can't develop 3 very good starters from our current crop of young starters then I do think we are effectively capped as a mediocre team with this core. We won't have the money to add enough FA pitching (or prospects to trade for it) if we've gotta fill 2 or 3 spots worth of good starters. But, if we can fill 3 spots internally, we can add a 4th through FA/trade, and then patch in the 5th with a cheap FA or journeyman prospect type, I feel the offense is good enough that we can add one big FA piece there and be a solid offense, but there's no point in doing that unless the pitching is going to be good enough to really compete.

My approach would be to essentially do what we've done this offseason. Look for bargains and potential bounce back types without being overly risky on contracts (although I'd go after Fielder if his price remains in the 5-6 years @ $20-22M per, that's a good deal for him, but he'll sign that elsewhere if that's his market) and head into the season with largely the same core. Then you have 3 months to see if the young pitching will bounce back and be effective, or if it's a lost cause. If it's a lost cause, I firesale. The only guys I hold onto are Wieters and any of the young starters that are pitching well under under 3 years service time (my guess is only Britton), and if the offers are huge for anyone I want to hold onto, I consider even moving them. Jones goes. Guthrie goes. Johnson goes. Roberts goes. Markakis goes. Hardy goes. Reynolds goes. Anyone with value and over 3 years service time gets moved. I think the return on Guthrie will be less at the deadline than it would be now, but I'm willing to pay that price to take one more chance that this core of starting pitching can get the job done. Jones should bring similar value in return in July as he would right now, I don't think you'll lose much of your return by waiting with him (barring injury or an awful season), and mostly I'm using the Pence and Bourn trades last year to justify that opinion.

The problem is, if those guys don't live up to expectations, you are in trouble.

I disagree about Jones' value. I think you COULD be right but I don't think the odds are in your favor.

Right now, in the offseason(when more teams would be after him and when position players generally fetch more talent), with 2 years left before he hits FA, coming off his best season, is when his value is at its highest.

PErsonally, I think you get back a package that makes any of us say we are glad we traded him and like the package that we get for him plus what we have much more on a long term level.

[Mackus]

The problem is, if those guys don't live up to expectations, you are in trouble.

I agree, if those young pitchers can't give us what we need, then the immediate future of the team is bleak at best. But I'm not completely sold on the idea that these guys can't be what we need, so I'd like to give them one more shot. I feel that the slightly lesser return that we'll get on all of our assets in July as opposed to right now is a price worth paying to take one more gamble that the young pitchers can put things together.

I would agree that the decision whether or not to trade Jones can be made independent of a decision to completely rebuild. I'm just more of the mindset of lumping them together, taking our shot now, and only going ahead with a trade of Jones if we are also going forward with a larger firesale in July after (if) the pitchers have failed again.

[SportsGuy]

The problem is, if those guys don't live up to expectations, you are in trouble.

I agree, if those young pitchers can't give us what we need, then the immediate future of the team is bleak at best. But I'm not completely sold on the idea that these guys can't be what we need, so I'd like to give them one more shot. I feel that the slightly lesser return that we'll get on all of our assets in July as opposed to right now is a price worth paying to take one more gamble that the young pitchers can put things together.

I would agree that the decision whether or not to trade Jones can be made independent of a decision to completely rebuild. I'm just more of the mindset of lumping them together, taking our shot now, and only going ahead with a trade of Jones if we are also going forward with a larger firesale in July after (if) the pitchers have failed again.

BTW, I agree with you on the young starters but if I had a crystal ball that said they all made huge strides in 2012, I would deal Jones without thinking twice.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: Trading Adam Jones, NL West Edition
http://camdendepot.b...st-edition.html

[SportsGuy]

ZIps projection of Jones:

Adam Jones - 278/322/447, OPS+ 106. He probably is what he is at this point

.

[David Robinette]

I have waited a while to reply to the question that started this thread. I wanted to see if there was a consensus. There does seem to be agreement that Adam Jones's potential trade value is near or at its peak, due to the complexities of today's baseball rules concerning trades and free agents, and to a lesser extent because Adam hasn't developed his playing skills as quickly as some writers here apparently thought he should. But everyone seems to think Jones would attract serious attention if he was put on the market.

So, that makes me wonder why anyone would consider trading him at this point. The Orioles are a work in progress. Obviously, their biggest need is pitching. Every team needs pitching, and it doesn't come cheaply. It makes more sense to me for the organization to develop its own pitching, than to try to buy it or -- especially -- trade for it. The O's need lots of pitching: a complete starting rotation, and at least one closer in the bullpen. They don't have the assets to trade for four top quality pitchers, even if there were four available. They can't or won't compete for free agent pitchers, once the big market teams bid their contracts up into the stratosphere, and they shouldn't. Pitchers are notoriously inefficient and unreliable after going through free agency.

That means the only viable option is to go out and find the raw talent, sign them and develop them. That takes time, but it works -- IF the scouts and minor league coaches are capable of doing their own jobs. Remember, there once was a time when the Orioles' farm system was a pitching factory. The team has a history of success at it. But not with last season's player development and scouting personnel.

Meanwhile, there is no upside to giving up on Jones. He's only 26, and he is still developing. Right now, he is one of the best outfielders in MLB, and there is no reason at all to believe that he has reached his limit as a hitter. I would hate to see him get traded and go on to win an MVP and/or Triple Crown five years from now, playing for the Nationals or Rays. If Bill DeWitt is still alive, I'm sure he will back me up on that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: Trading Adam Jones AL East Edition
http://camdendepot.b...st-edition.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

I have waited a while to reply to the question that started this thread. I wanted to see if there was a consensus. There does seem to be agreement that Adam Jones's potential trade value is near or at its peak, due to the complexities of today's baseball rules concerning trades and free agents, and to a lesser extent because Adam hasn't developed his playing skills as quickly as some writers here apparently thought he should. But everyone seems to think Jones would attract serious attention if he was put on the market.

So, that makes me wonder why anyone would consider trading him at this point. The Orioles are a work in progress. Obviously, their biggest need is pitching. Every team needs pitching, and it doesn't come cheaply. It makes more sense to me for the organization to develop its own pitching, than to try to buy it or -- especially -- trade for it. The O's need lots of pitching: a complete starting rotation, and at least one closer in the bullpen. They don't have the assets to trade for four top quality pitchers, even if there were four available. They can't or won't compete for free agent pitchers, once the big market teams bid their contracts up into the stratosphere, and they shouldn't. Pitchers are notoriously inefficient and unreliable after going through free agency.

That means the only viable option is to go out and find the raw talent, sign them and develop them. That takes time, but it works -- IF the scouts and minor league coaches are capable of doing their own jobs. Remember, there once was a time when the Orioles' farm system was a pitching factory. The team has a history of success at it. But not with last season's player development and scouting personnel.

Meanwhile, there is no upside to giving up on Jones. He's only 26, and he is still developing. Right now, he is one of the best outfielders in MLB, and there is no reason at all to believe that he has reached his limit as a hitter. I would hate to see him get traded and go on to win an MVP and/or Triple Crown five years from now, playing for the Nationals or Rays. If Bill DeWitt is still alive, I'm sure he will back me up on that.

Hand-in-hand with this post, ESPN's Buster Olney has questioned Jones' trade value on Twitter.

It is my preference that the O's first approach Jones on an extension. If that extension can not be reached (or reached at a level Duquette is comfortable with) than I want Jones moved before ST.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Mike Newman Prospects Chat
http://www.fangraphs...ects-chat-1312/


Comment From Thomas: "What's your opinion on the Prado, JJ, and a pitching prospect for Adam Jones rumors? Is Jones really that good? Is there something I am missing about his 4.7% walk rate last year?"


Mike Newman: "I think it depends on just how much you believe in Prado and Jair. If one thinks Prado is a nice super utility type and Jair is more of a #4 in the end, then it makes sense. If you think Prado returns to pre-2011 levels AND Jurrjens continues to pitch far above his peripherals, then it seems like overpaying a bit. I also wonder who the pitching prospect would be. That would really swing the deal for me."

Comment From Steve: "What kind of prospect package would you target in return for Adam Jones if you were Dan Duquette?"

Mike Newman: "Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single outfield prospect in the system worth mentioning other than Avery who is pretty blah. I know Hoes was converted, but he's a contact guy and not much else. Also, they can always use pitching help."

[SportsGuy]

I have waited a while to reply to the question that started this thread. I wanted to see if there was a consensus. There does seem to be agreement that Adam Jones's potential trade value is near or at its peak, due to the complexities of today's baseball rules concerning trades and free agents, and to a lesser extent because Adam hasn't developed his playing skills as quickly as some writers here apparently thought he should. But everyone seems to think Jones would attract serious attention if he was put on the market.

So, that makes me wonder why anyone would consider trading him at this point. The Orioles are a work in progress. Obviously, their biggest need is pitching. Every team needs pitching, and it doesn't come cheaply. It makes more sense to me for the organization to develop its own pitching, than to try to buy it or -- especially -- trade for it. The O's need lots of pitching: a complete starting rotation, and at least one closer in the bullpen. They don't have the assets to trade for four top quality pitchers, even if there were four available. They can't or won't compete for free agent pitchers, once the big market teams bid their contracts up into the stratosphere, and they shouldn't. Pitchers are notoriously inefficient and unreliable after going through free agency.

That means the only viable option is to go out and find the raw talent, sign them and develop them. That takes time, but it works -- IF the scouts and minor league coaches are capable of doing their own jobs. Remember, there once was a time when the Orioles' farm system was a pitching factory. The team has a history of success at it. But not with last season's player development and scouting personnel.

Meanwhile, there is no upside to giving up on Jones. He's only 26, and he is still developing. Right now, he is one of the best outfielders in MLB, and there is no reason at all to believe that he has reached his limit as a hitter. I would hate to see him get traded and go on to win an MVP and/or Triple Crown five years from now, playing for the Nationals or Rays. If Bill DeWitt is still alive, I'm sure he will back me up on that.

I don't see why trading for pitching is something we shouldn't do over developing our own. That doesn't seem to make any sense.

Is Jones still developing? How much better is he going to get?

He has a poor approach at the plate and has very little discipline. His walk rates are poor and he likes to "go fishing" too often when he is up there.

His defense is average at best in CF. If he moved to LF, his UZR numbers are probably better but then he losing value as a LFer vs a CFer.

His defense isn't likely to improve. When he first came to the Orioles, he looked like he could become elite. But then he put on a lot of weight/muscle and that ended up hurting his range.

So, what you have is a limited offensive player because his OBP will likely never be that good and an average at best defender.

I have compared him to Torii Hunter a lot...Go back and look at Hunter's stats. He has a few seasons where his OPS was in the mid to upper 800s, a few years where his OPS was in the low to mid 700s but most years, he ends up in that 775-810 range.

That is what I would expect out of Jones...those types of numbers.

But overall, you are talking about a 2-3.5 WAR player who will want a contract similar to Nick's in all likelihood...and Nick got his coming off of a much better year than Jones just had and Nick is the better all around player even though Jones is coming off of the better season.

I just don't see any reason to extend him. His trade value is high. Whether Atlanta wants to overrate Prado and JJ or not is on them...but there are other teams we could be talking to and get a nice package of players for Jones.

This team and organization needs so much more talent and depth to contend....They aren't even close.

There isn't a team in pro sports further away from the playoffs than the Baltimore Orioles. We have 3 real prospects and a bunch of players that every organization has. We have some good young pitching talent but have gotten very little in terms of results from it and the best guy, BMat, turned in one of the worst years in the history of the sport.

The team lacks speed, talent, depth, defense, pitching, etc....

They need everything.

Building around a good but not great player and giving him a stupid extension isn't the way this team is going to win.

The Orioles are full of good to very good role players who could be key pieces on a championship team. But they don't have those 5+ WAR players(except MAYBE Wieters if his offense can stay consistently good) that you need to have to make the playoffs in the extremely deep AL.

[JeremyStrain]

I have waited a while to reply to the question that started this thread. I wanted to see if there was a consensus. There does seem to be agreement that Adam Jones's potential trade value is near or at its peak, due to the complexities of today's baseball rules concerning trades and free agents, and to a lesser extent because Adam hasn't developed his playing skills as quickly as some writers here apparently thought he should. But everyone seems to think Jones would attract serious attention if he was put on the market.

So, that makes me wonder why anyone would consider trading him at this point. The Orioles are a work in progress. Obviously, their biggest need is pitching. Every team needs pitching, and it doesn't come cheaply. It makes more sense to me for the organization to develop its own pitching, than to try to buy it or -- especially -- trade for it. The O's need lots of pitching: a complete starting rotation, and at least one closer in the bullpen. They don't have the assets to trade for four top quality pitchers, even if there were four available. They can't or won't compete for free agent pitchers, once the big market teams bid their contracts up into the stratosphere, and they shouldn't. Pitchers are notoriously inefficient and unreliable after going through free agency.

That means the only viable option is to go out and find the raw talent, sign them and develop them. That takes time, but it works -- IF the scouts and minor league coaches are capable of doing their own jobs. Remember, there once was a time when the Orioles' farm system was a pitching factory. The team has a history of success at it. But not with last season's player development and scouting personnel.

Meanwhile, there is no upside to giving up on Jones. He's only 26, and he is still developing. Right now, he is one of the best outfielders in MLB, and there is no reason at all to believe that he has reached his limit as a hitter. I would hate to see him get traded and go on to win an MVP and/or Triple Crown five years from now, playing for the Nationals or Rays. If Bill DeWitt is still alive, I'm sure he will back me up on that.

I actually think his value is nearing/hitting it's peak. He's 2 years from FA now, so next year even if everything goes right, he's a year from being a FA which drops value like a rock. If he has a down year or gets injured this year that drops it even more. So yeah, I think he's value is probably maxed right now.

[SportsGuy]

http://atlanta.sbnat... ... adam-jones

[David Robinette]

The fact is, no one knows for sure where Adam Jones is in his development. I just don't think he is a liability. I think he is a better-than-average contributor on this team, so I would be very reluctant to trade him unless the Orioles get value in return. Just remember, this time last year, the baseball blogs were calling Matt Wieters the most over-hyped and over-rated player in the A.L.

[SportsGuy]

The fact is, no one knows for sure where Adam Jones is in his development. I just don't think he is a liability. I think he is a better-than-average contributor on this team, so I would be very reluctant to trade him unless the Orioles get value in return. Just remember, this time last year, the baseball blogs were calling Matt Wieters the most over-hyped and over-rated player in the A.L.

Maybe not...But its not difficult to hypothesize, with very good accuracy, exactly where he is and where he is likely to end up.

Sure, something strange could happen and he could blow up, begin laying off the poor breaking pitches and walk 70+ times.

But its just not likely, nor realistic, to expect that.

[David Robinette]

"...But its not difficult to hypothesize, with very good accuracy, exactly where he is and where he is likely to end up."

Maybe not, Sports Guy, if you actually have played the game for a substantial period as a professional; are you an expert in baseball fundamentals, tactics, strategy, and motivation; and you have learned to notice the physical and mental nuances that separate good players from the rest, and have shown how to capitalize on them; and you have a track record of consistently identifying those players; and if people are willing to make substantial financial decisions based on your advice. But I'm afraid that writing opinions on a baseball blog -- if that's the extent of your qualifications and experience -- just doesn't cut it. If it did, a lot of bloggers would have jobs in MLB.

[SportsGuy]

"...But its not difficult to hypothesize, with very good accuracy, exactly where he is and where he is likely to end up."

Maybe not, Sports Guy, if you actually have played the game for a substantial period as a professional; are you an expert in baseball fundamentals, tactics, strategy, and motivation; and you have learned to notice the physical and mental nuances that separate good players from the rest, and have shown how to capitalize on them; and you have a track record of consistently identifying those players; and if people are willing to make substantial financial decisions based on your advice. But I'm afraid that writing opinions on a baseball blog -- if that's the extent of your qualifications and experience -- just doesn't cut it. If it did, a lot of bloggers would have jobs in MLB.

Oh boy, here we go.

Ok, let's put it another way. Yes, a miracle could happen and Jones could all of a sudden become a guy that walks 70+ times a year and stays off the bad pitches...But since he has never done that in his pro career, I think its fair to talk about what is realistic, not fantasy.

If you want to talk about him becoming the next Bautista, so be it...But that's obviously poor speculation at best.

The ODDS are Jones is who he is. He is 26...Age 27 is usually the peak year for an athlete, so he is in that prime territory of his career and the things he would need to improve on to become elite, he hasn't...in fact, he has regressed in terms of taking a walk and playing GG level defense. That stuff isn't improving, its gotten worse.

[FlavaDave10]

If the Orioles are going to trade Adam Jones, they have to wait for the right deal. Get some guys with some good upside. Jurrjens has questionable upside at best and Prado has virtually none. Now if the Braves offered Jurrjens and Beachy/Minor, that's a bit more attractive. I'd be against trading him for the sake of trading him because even if he walks as a free agent, we still at least get (I assume) a first round pick. If the talent we're getting back is not equal to that first round pick, there's no sense in dealing him.

[David Robinette]

FlavaDave10 -- you and I are in agreement for most of the same reasons.

But my reasons include history, too. The Orioles have made some of the worst trades in baseball history, and I just feel trading Adam Jones for something less than at least two top-tier young players -- including at least one pitcher -- would be another one. He is not a bad player now; he is not a liability in the outfield, and he can hit. He needs to work on his strike zone discipline, and he needs to learn the virtue of patience at the plate.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: Adam Jones' Potential
http://camdendepot.b...-potential.html