10 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Orioles.com: 3 best fits to fill the hole atop the O's rotation

[ivanbalt]

Burnes just makes too much sense considering where the Orioles are assuming he would want to come back.  That said, I highly doubt the Orioles make a serious run at him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

That said, I highly doubt the Orioles make a serious run at him.

 

Why?

[ivanbalt]

Why?

Just a feeling (possibly irrational).  I don't have faith in Rubenstein and Elias in terms of spending until they prove me wrong.

 

So far under Rubenstein, the Orioles have gutted plan benefits and looked for new ways to milk more money out of fans at the stadium.

[BaltBird 24]

It's been so long since the Orioles were interested in legitimate FAs that I almost can't take it serious when they're mentioned with guys like Burnes, Fried, or even Eovaldi.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The issue for me is how caught up in metrics Elias and his team are. I think they look at a player and assign a value based upon those metrics. As an example they may see Burnes' value at something like 5/$200M (don't get hung up on the numbers they are just for example). So another team comes up with say 6/$250 so they decide to move on.

 

The metrics are great but they can be misused. What happens when all the upper tier starters go for more than your metrics say they are worth? You don't get what you need but great you can feel good about your "process."

 

A player is worth whatever some team is willing to give them. If the FO thinks they can be a playoff legit team without making bold moves or paying too much then we'll get whatever leftovers there are. Is that good enough? Only hindsight will tell but its not an approach I like.

[Mackus]

The metrics are great but they can be misused. What happens when all the upper tier starters go for more than your metrics say they are worth? You don't get what you need but great you can feel good about your "process."

 

Not sure I agree with the idea that their modeling extends so far as to spit out a firm set price point for each free agent.  But whatever they're doing, you update your model with the new info and re-process.  If all the pitchers are going for more than they thought they were worth, then that is new info for determining market price.  Hopefully that price is still within what your resources allow, or else you've gotta pivot to other plans or maybe find more resources.

[makoman]

The issue for me is how caught up in metrics Elias and his team are. I think they look at a player and assign a value based upon those metrics. As an example they may see Burnes' value at something like 5/$200M (don't get hung up on the numbers they are just for example). So another team comes up with say 6/$250 so they decide to move on.

 

The metrics are great but they can be misused. What happens when all the upper tier starters go for more than your metrics say they are worth? You don't get what you need but great you can feel good about your "process."

 

A player is worth whatever some team is willing to give them. If the FO thinks they can be a playoff legit team without making bold moves or paying too much then we'll get whatever leftovers there are. Is that good enough? Only hindsight will tell but its not an approach I like.

I agree with you that you need to be fluid with your approach, and perhaps be willing to alter the process if the situation shows that is needed. 

 

I also think there's no evidence at all that the team has been doing some rule based valuation approach with no flexibility, causing them to miss out on FAs they wanted because of it.

 

I think (also without solid evidence) that they haven't really had an opportunity to spend as much money as they might want due to owner constraints, and this offseason will tell us a lot about how things are going to be going forward.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

How long till ST? LOL

[Pedro Cerrano]

Just a feeling (possibly irrational). I don't have faith in Rubenstein and Elias in terms of spending until they prove me wrong.

So far under Rubenstein, the Orioles have gutted plan benefits and looked for new ways to milk more money out of fans at the stadium.

This. So far he’s been a cheap bastard that likes to spray water on people.

[BobPhelan]

They took on money at the trade deadline. Wouldn’t have happened under JA. But yes, let’s see them sign a big FA before we believe it (not being sarcastic).