39 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Ringer: There’s a New No. 2 on the MLB Free Agent Market

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Let’s Ballpark Roki Sasaki’s Market

[Mackus]

FanGraphs: Let’s Ballpark Roki Sasaki’s Market

 

2024 bonus space left:

• Los Angeles Dodgers – $2.5 million
• Baltimore Orioles – $2.15 million
• New York Yankees – $1.5 million
• San Francisco Giants – just shy of $1.5 million
• Boston Red Sox – $1 million
• Detroit Tigers – just shy of $1 million
• Chicago White Sox – just shy of $1 million

 

Maximum amount of additional 2024 money that can be acquired in trade

 

• Los Angeles Dodgers – $3,555,000
• Baltimore Orioles – $4,268,880
• New York Yankees – $1,491,320
• San Francisco Giants – $3,555,000
• Boston Red Sox – $3,555,000
• Detroit Tigers – $3,912,000
• Chicago White Sox – $3,555,000

 

 

They also are considered among the top of teams with 2025 pool left that hasn't been verbally committed (article is clear that this is very rough based on internal tracking of each team, as there is no official source) to other players.

 

 

So the O's are in good position in terms of 2024 bonus pool if he's posted this month and would count against the 2024 pool.  If he's posted in December or later and could sign after Jan 15th, then he'd count against the 2025 pool where again the O's are counted amongst the teams with the most space left, but that's very unscientific.  Teams also could make trades to acquire more space or break verbal commitments with other players so their "committed" space doesn't actually get spent.

 

Frankly, since I'm not expecting the O's to win this contest even if they had the most money available, I come away from this disapppointed that they have that money left unspent.  Though it is possible they didn't spend the money because they wanted some warchest left to be competitive in case Sasaki was posted late in the 2024 cycle.  That I would commend.  We'll never know if they were futures gambling on a longshot or this is the silver lining of an otherwise uninspiring international cycle.  But can hope its the former and that it pays off!

[Slidemaster]

He will make much more money playing in a larger market with more exposure/advertising opportunities. Baltimore just isn't where players want to go unless the money is overwhelming.

[BSLMikeLowe]

He'll probably make more off-field money in Japan than in the US. But even then if he were to be teammates with Ohtani that would seem to open even more opportunities for him both back home and in the US.

[Mackus]

He'll probably make more off-field money in Japan than in the US. But even then if he were to be teammates with Ohtani that would seem to open even more opportunities for him both back home and in the US.

 

I think the big card the O's could (and should, if allowed) play is to guarantee him a path to faster free agency.  I know this is the standard with most international free agents that are over 25, they have a clause that the team will non-tender them even though they are shy of 6-years of service.  I am not sure if it is allowed for the under-25 guys.  But if they make him a free agent after 4 or even 3 years, that's a ton of extra money and cache for him than the teams that'll hold him through arbitration for two more years.

 

Maybe other teams will also make similar offers.  But if he shows any interest in Baltimore at all, then it'd be worth a shot, in addition to acquiring as much bonus pool as they can.

[dude]

So the O's are in good position in terms of 2024 bonus pool if he's posted this month and would count against the 2024 pool.  If he's posted in December or later and could sign after Jan 15th, then he'd count against the 2025 pool where again the O's are counted amongst the teams with the most space left, but that's very unscientific.  Teams also could make trades to acquire more space or break verbal commitments with other players so their "committed" space doesn't actually get spent.

 

Frankly, since I'm not expecting the O's to win this contest even if they had the most money available, I come away from this disappointed that they have that money left unspent.  Though it is possible they didn't spend the money because they wanted some warchest left to be competitive in case Sasaki was posted late in the 2024 cycle.  That I would commend.  We'll never know if they were futures gambling on a longshot or this is the silver lining of an otherwise uninspiring international cycle.  But can hope its the former and that it pays off!

 

It's sort of hard to understand why he wouldn't just wait a couple months and leverage the weight of the 2025 IFA Pools, but maybe there's other context in there that could matter for 2024 pools.

 

I (like others) don't really put any hope in him picking Baltimore, but that doesn't mean the Orioles can't be involved.  If the Dodgers have 2.5M remaining for 2024 and that's his preference but the Dodgers have other commitments in 2025 then maybe it makes sense for them to talk to the Orioles, get the 2.15M in 2024 IFA Pool now and go ahead and sign him for ~4.6M.

 

Likewise, the Padres have been big-game hunters the last couple years in IFA, they have nothing left in 2024 and if they have commitments for 2025, can they talk Sasaki into something like 2+M and just get the Orioles IFA Pool?

 

Sasaki has to decide where he wants to play.  They difference in any of the Pools even between 2024 and 2025 is relatively meaningless especially considering he's willing to commit now/soon and forgo the 9-figure FA deals that would be available after another season or 2.  If he's more interested in now that a little later, cool, that's his call.

---------------------

 

Trade thoughts.  Let's just say Sasaki wants to play with Ohtani and Yamamoto and getting the $$ now has some value to the Dodgers.

 

The Dodgers don't really have anything the Orioles specifically need, so like many of the deals that should be happening, it's more about the third team that the Orioles would want something from. Of course, to do that, you have to have some idea of what you want and the Orioles haven't seemed to function that way, even early on last week you have Elias talking about weighing all of the opportunities. 

 

Mullins makes a lot of sense for a bunch of teams and the Dodgers are one of them.  The Dodgers don't need to trade salary, but there's a couple easy opportunities if you wanted to find value to expand a deal.  Dodgers have this current wave of young pitching (Miller, Knack, Stone, Frasso) that is getting run over by the bigger fish.

 

Dodgers still have a good system that should have a number of ways to leverage with a third team IF there's value in pushing Sasaki with 2024 resources.  

[Mackus]

It's sort of hard to understand why he wouldn't just wait a couple months and leverage the weight of the 2025 IFA Pools, but maybe there's other context in there that could matter for 2024 pools.

 

He only needs to wait a month.  Once we waits a month, the 45 days covers Jan 15th and he's into the 2025 pool.

 

What I can't understand is why he doesn't wait two years and get Yamamoto money.  Even if he's hurt and bad for the next two years, someone is gonna give him more than $10M as a flier.  

 

I am down with the idea of trading the remainder of our 2024 pool to LA, but first I'd need to hear from him directly that Baltimore isn't a contender for his services.  We on the outside might actually hear that type of info, but Elias and Co on the inside certainly would know.  Any trade at this point has gotta be better than using the money for whatever guys (other than Sasaki) would be left on the market.  Though the Dodgers certainly know that is true as well and can go lots of other places to get the additional allocation they can acquire, if they even need any more since if the kid wants to be in LA he's gonna take whatever they offer.  He's already going from $350M to single digits by signing nowish rather than in two years, he might not care so much what digit that is.  Bonus space at this time of year is a buyer's market, but hey, might as well sell at a discount since its an expiring asset otherwise.

[BSLMikeLowe]

I guess one silver lining to the Dodgers getting this guy is that it would seemingly take them out of the running to outbid everyone on Burnes. Hard to fathom that if they add Sasaki to a rotation with Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow with the likes of Gonsolin, May and Stone rounding it out, that they then go all-in for Burnes on top of that. Even with the durability questions the Dodgers couldn't justify such an embarrassment of riches, could they?

[dude]

I guess one silver lining to the Dodgers getting this guy is that it would seemingly take them out of the running to outbid everyone on Burnes. Hard to fathom that if they add Sasaki to a rotation with Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow with the likes of Gonsolin, May and Stone rounding it out, that they then go all-in for Burnes on top of that. Even with the durability questions the Dodgers couldn't justify such an embarrassment of riches, could they?

 

I'm not in charge of the Dodgers either, but I don't think they'll be in on Burnes regardless.  I think the guy they will be in on is Fried, which is why I'm not that enamored with him as an Oriole.  If he wants west coast and competitive and the Dodgers have any money they need to have, he can pick that spot (Dodgers need a LHSP) and that's fine.

 

Sasaki also has some durability questions as will Ohtani and Glasnow AND Fried, so I do see them going more 6-man into the future here for a little more rest and limit total innings on their guys' arms.

 

What that does mean is that those younger arms are available at something of a discount if you're helping them accomplish something else (ie Sasaki).

[dude]

I am down with the idea of trading the remainder of our 2024 pool to LA, but first I'd need to hear from him directly that Baltimore isn't a contender for his services.  We on the outside might actually hear that type of info, but Elias and Co on the inside certainly would know.  Any trade at this point has gotta be better than using the money for whatever guys (other than Sasaki) would be left on the market.  Though the Dodgers certainly know that is true as well and can go lots of other places to get the additional allocation they can acquire, if they even need any more since if the kid wants to be in LA he's gonna take whatever they offer.  He's already going from $350M to single digits by signing nowish rather than in two years, he might not care so much what digit that is.  Bonus space at this time of year is a buyer's market, but hey, might as well sell at a discount since its an expiring asset otherwise.

 

I agree with doing the homework.  His agent has to give you a real feel and if you don't like the answer then be (as discussed) part of the solution elsewhere.

 

I don't know if and when it's all real but the word was LA ownership was looking at a media launch in Asia so anything they do to facilitate that end is worth it on this end.  Sasaki could certainly be part of that.  Read an article where he became friends with Darvish and the west coast angle works there.  NYM (NY market) and Senga would seem to be a possibility, Seattle has done well given Asian population outside of LA and I don't know, if we're picking something outside of west/east coast that the Cubs should be in play.  Don't really see room for Baltimore anywhere in there, but certainly ask the questions and then move on.

 

There's LOTS of ways to pursue this, but here's some simple....I've discussed Doyle before and Rox have over 800k in pool remaining also.

 

LAD gets 3M in IFA pool (2.15M BAL, .85M COL)

COL gets Bradfield, Bobby Miller and Brandon Knack

BAL gets Brenton Doyle

 

That allows LAD to give Sasaki 5.5M now.

 

Done. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

He's going to the Dodgers.

[Mackus]

He's going to the Dodgers.

Same thing everyone said about Ohtani when he first came over.

[Slidemaster]

Same thing everyone said about Ohtani when he first came over.

He got there eventually.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Weren't the Dodgers Ohtani's first choice, but the reason he ended up in Anaheim is because the Dodgers didn't want him pitching?

[dude]

Reports are that Saski is getting posted next week during the Winter Meetings.

 

Couple ways for the Dodgers to put together the overage of 3.55M (to add to their 2.5M and get to 6M total), but the Orioles would be the easiest way with the next biggest pool available.

 

Dodgers are losing 1M in IFA Pool next year (?) so that has some limitation on what they can offer next year while hammering any commitments they've made.  Current IFA Pool makes sense for everyone and the delta for Sasaki isn't that big by waiting until 15 JAN (someone could probably pull together 10M versus 6M now from Dodgers).

 

Again, lots of ways to pull something together, but Chase Harlan was a eastern PA kid that lit up the Combine with his power.  Dodgers took him at 3-98 after the Orioles selected Overn at 3-97.  LAD gave him 1.75M.

 

Love to turn expiring Pool into Harlan and Bobby Miller.

[Mackus]

I think the timing of the posting tells us he does want to wait until the 2025 signing period. Could be that they want the bright lights of the Winter Meeting to make posting him a spectacle, but makes more sense to me that they waited until his 45 day period would include crossing the 2025 IFA opening and allow all teams to refresh their pools. They get both opportunities by doing it now.

I'd rather try to sign him than sell our pool to teams that are trying. But if they know they are out, it makes sense to cash in the remainder of the 2024 pool since it turns to ashes in a few weeks.

[dude]

I think the timing of the posting tells us he does want to wait until the 2025 signing period. 

 

I think the timing of the posting means he's amenable to signing in the current IFA Pool, otherwise, why burn 2/3 of your window now. 

 

None of this is a mystery to Team Sasaki.  They know exactly what the limitations are now.  They know exactly what we know.  The difference (already discussed) between what is available after 15 JAN and before 15 DEC is modest at best and literally nothing compared to waiting a couple years.

 

I see the Orioles at 0%.  If the Orioles know something we don't know and he's in play (I don't know, his brother-in-law is a Japanese diplomat in DC so he's got family in the region and the Capitol region is a preference), awesome, the Orioles can pull about 6.4M together and the expiring money works the other way too for the Orioles to accumulate it (LAD 2.5, COL 0.8, CWS 0.9).

 

Here's a selling point....with less than 2500 Japanese (census) in the Baltimore metro region, if he visits Baltimore, they can probably arrange for him to meet ALL of them.

 

The Dodgers make all the sense in the world.  The Orioles are the easiest play to pool money.

[dude]

...and not that team Sasaki can't make all of this work, but with ST reporting in mid-Feb, signing now literally doubles his stateside time to prepare logistics, etc.  They can certainly have already started, but finalizing a deal earlier than later could have implications for getting settled in the US.  It's not like he just shows up on a flight and gets an apartment, they likely need Visas for elements of his entourage, etc, etc.  None of that has to be hard, but it probably does take some time.

[Mackus]

He can agree to a deal soon to get a head start on the logistics and then sign it officially on Jan 15. I think both a quick sign and waiting til 2025 make sense, but waiting to sign seems more likely to me because of the additional teams that would have money to spend. If he's focused on one or two landing spots, then that's less important.