22 replies to this topic

[dude]

This thread IS NOT INTENDED to be a discussion of the quality of the roster or opportunity or 'how we got here' or "what I'd do" or any of that.  This is just intended as a 2025 Baseline Roster reference for where the 2025 roster sits and we can update it throughout the offseason as things change or are finalized (like Arbitration #s, trade, non-tenders, FA signings, whatever)

 

If there's some wild disagreement about a player or potential salary, we can change anything.

 

Presented as a notional lineup, obviously that would be subject to change, largely what they are ending the season using.

 

For purposes of this, I'm putting all Team Control (TC): TC1, TC2 and TC3 at 750k.

 

Service: 0.0+ = TC1, 1.0+ = TC2, 2.0+ = TC3, 3.0+ ARB1, 4.0+ ARB2, 5.0+ = ARB3 (I use ARB0 for Super 2)

Contract: Xyears/yzM 

-----------------------

 

Lineup

LF Cowser (0.75M TC2)

C  Rutschman (5.50M, ARB1)

SS Henderson (0.75M, TC3)

1B Mountcastle (6.767M, ARB2)

DH O'Hearn (8.00M, 1/8.00M - contract)

3B Westburg (0.75M, TC2)

RF O'Neill (16.5M, 3/49.5M - contract)

CF Mullins (8.7250M, ARB3) 

2B Holliday (0.75M, TC1)

 

Bench

C  Sanchez (8.50M, 1/8.5M - contract)

IF Urias (3.15M, ARB2)

IF Mateo (3.55M, ARB3)

IF Rivera (1.00M, ARB1)

 

Starters

1. Morton (15.00M, 1/15M contract)

2. Eflin (18.00M, 1/18M - contract)

3. Rodriguez (0.75M, TC2) 

4. Kremer (2.95M, ARB1)

5. Sugano (13.00M, 1/13M  - contract)

 

Bullpen

RH  Bautista (1.00M, ARB1 - contract)

RH  Cano (0.75M, TC2)

RH  Dominguez (8.00M, 1/8.0M - contract)

RH  Suarez (0.75M, TC2)

RH Kittredge (9.00M, 1/10M contract w/option for 2026)

LH  Soto (5.35M,  ARB3)

LH  Akin (1.475M, ARB2)

LH  Perez (2.20M, ARB2 - contract)

-------------26

AAA Carlson (0.975M, ARB2 - contract outside of ARB)

AAA  Rogers (2.60M, ARB2)

IL/Bradish (2.35M, ARB0/Super2 will start season on IL)

IL/Wells (2.075M, ARB1 - will start season on IL)

 

 

TOTAL SALARY FOR 26+MAN (includes IL and all ARB) = ~150.95M

 

Does not include

Previously deferred money = 5.3M (see post below)  

Rest of 40-man roster = 8+M (common to all teams) - this is actually much less than this amount - partial salary based on service in minors.

Estimated player benefits = 17.5M (common to all teams)

 

AGAIN this is the start point for where they are today.  We all expect a fair number of changes to the 40-man and 26-man depending on ARB, trades, etc.  

 

We'll just update this as the decisions are made.

[dude]

Orioles deferred payments:

 

Here's what I'll try (again) and if anyone has additional info, we'll update it here and I'll just reflect the total number up in the lead post. From what I've gathered (I'm not worried about date of payout, just raw accumulation in year paid)

Note: It appears all previous deferred money has been paid out, outside of Cobb and Davis.

 

The core deferrals from Davis' 2022 retirement are done, just deferrals from the original contract now.

2025-2032: 5.3M from Davis (3.5M) and Cobb (1.8M)
2033-2035: 3.15M from Davis (1.4M) and Cobb (1.75M)

2036-2037: 1.4M from Davis (1.4M)

[dude]

Arbitration cases - I'll just go ahead and use this from MLBTR.  I usually do my own estimates (above) and compare them as they are finalized, but MLBTR got theirs out before I posted this, so I'll just use their numbers which are reflected in the lead post.

 

Orioles (1)

Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6M (5.35M contract)

Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7M (8.725M contract)

Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2M (3.55M contract, 2026 tm option)

Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3M (waived/released -re-signed to MiL deal)

Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6M (6.787M contract)

Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1M (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option) (2.20M option picked up)

Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4M (1.475M contract)

Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8M (2.60M contract)

Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7M (non-tendered, signed with Rangers)

Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1M (3.15M contract)

Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1M (2.075M contract)

Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5M (2.95M contract)

Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4M (1.00M contract)

Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8M (5.50M contract)

Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1M (2.35M contract)

[dude]

Updated lead post based on today's information.

 

O'Hearn, Dominguez, Perez options picked up

Coulombe option declined

Bowman released (was ARB eligible)

[dude]

Update:

Rivera 1/1

Webb non-tendered

[dude]

added (and threw up in my mouth a little)

 

Gary Sanchez 1/8.5M

Tyler O'Neill 3/49.5 (assuming 16.5/year until we know more)

 

For the purposes of the lead post, I replaced Kjerstad with O'Neill for now.  There's too many guys under ARB/Contract so there's certainly other moves.  Mateo, Urias and Rivera are the bench with Sanchez for now.

[BobPhelan]

I saw that it was 16.5 per year.

[dude]

added Tomoyuki Sugano 1/13.

[Roll Tide]

I saw that it was 16.5 per year.

Per Roch

 

The 40-man roster is full and a 13-man pitching staff unexpectedly includes Sugano at $13 million. Per the Associated Press, he also can earn an additional $50,000 for an All-Star selection, $100,000 for winning the Cy Young Award, $75,000 for finishing in second place, $50,000 for finishing in third, $50,000 for winning a Gold Glove; $100,000 for being World Series Most Valuable Player, and $50,000 for being Championship Series MVP

[Mackus]

Per Roch

$16.5 per year is for O'Neill.

[dude]

Added Charlie Morton, 1/15M

 

For the purposes of the lead post, I put Trevor Rogers in the bullpen.

[BaltBird 24]

The Orioles now have 3 SP with salaries of $13M, $15M, and $18M. Plus an arbitration guy and a team control guy.

[dude]

Lead post updated for ARB numbers.  Post #3 is updated so I won't repeat here.

 

As is usually the case with ARB predications, they're all wrong, but the net of it basically nothing.

---

 

Also, I had most TC1-3 year guys at 700k.  I saw somewhere that is a little low for 2025 so moved them all up to 750k.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So uh has our payroll increased from 2024. Rofl

[dude]

So uh has our payroll increaded from 2024. Rofl

 

Yes.  You're like 2 years off (pre-2023) with your rambling on this. 

 

I haven't made any real payroll assessments under the new ownership group.  Personally I think they'll spend when they have the opportunity.  The notion that they'd suddenly threaten the Lux Tax seemed absurd as if that was going to be a thing.

 

My opinion is we should get rid of some salary only because I think we should trade a handful of guys into different situations and play other guys more directly (Mayo, Kjerstad).  Whatever.  We'll see what they do.

 

Stop gaslighting yourself.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yes.  You're like 2 years off (pre-2023) with your rambling on this. 

 

I haven't made any real payroll assessments under the new ownership group.  Personally I think they'll spend when they have the opportunity.  The notion that they'd suddenly threaten the Lux Tax seemed absurd as if that was going to be a thing.

 

My opinion is we should get rid of some salary only because I think we should trade a handful of guys into different situations and play other guys more directly (Mayo, Kjerstad).  Whatever.  We'll see what they do.

 

Stop gaslighting yourself.

You absolutely said during the season you expected the 2025 payroll would go down. You are a striaght liar

[dude]

You absolutely said during the season you expected the 2025 payroll would go down. You are a striaght liar

 

Easy enough to produce if I did.  (I didn't)

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Easy enough to produce if I did. (I didn't)

I dont need to. Im not into calling people liars willy nilly. I sure as hell aint trying to find it because it is 6 months worth of threads to go through. You also could have deleted it, so if readers want to take your word over mine thats ok. I know you said it

[dude]

Added Andrew Kittredge 1/10M (1/9M in 2025)

 

for the lead post, I moved Rogers to AAA.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

150 mil payroll and I expect 1 more move to add more. But our owner is crappy and doesnt spend and our GM doesnt want to spend money either. May not be the moves you wanted. May be no extensions on the books yet. Cant deny that at minimum we will be mid of the pack in spending for '25. Could be top half.