195 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

Crazy, as Mackus said.

Dude likes to keep it complicated. Not sure why. Well, I kind of do.

You could offer Holliday + to the WS for Crochet and save about 70M (no Baez contract). For all of this talk about durability, Skubal has pitched 149, 117, and 80 the last three years. His numbers, while still good, have regressed each month. You tell me which pitcher is getting tired. In June.

Skubal. 30 IP, 28 H, 10 BB, 32 K
Crochet 36 IP, 27 H, 6 BB, 56 K

Crochet has never topped something like 60 innings pitched before this year. They are already talking about ramping down his workload. I love the guy, but he's not pitching into October this year. Skubal will still pitch the entire season.

[BobPhelan]

Thought exercise:

Assume that Holliday is a perennial all-star. Think .850+ OPS for 10+ years.

Assume Skubal leaves after FA.

Would you trade Holliday for Skubal if you knew when it happened that the O's would win the world series with Skubal in the rotation?

If the World Series was guaranteed? Yeah of course. But since it’s far from it, no.

Side note, there is no mystery with Baez. He was late bloomer to his offensive peak and is an extremely free swinger. Those guys age fast.

[RichardZ]

Thought exercise:
Assume that Holliday is a perennial all-star. Think .850+ OPS for 10+ years.
Assume Skubal leaves after FA.
Would you trade Holliday for Skubal if you knew when it happened that the O's would win the world series with Skubal in the rotation?

Yes. We have a deep system. First of all, you’re only guaranteed the first 6-7 years of Holliday. Second of all, we can withstand his loss. A WS championship? No brainer.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I'm pretty sure I'd trade Adley for Tanner Scott if that was the deal with the devil for one 100% guaranteed WS lol

[RichardZ]

Crochet has never topped something like 60 innings pitched before this year. They are already talking about ramping down his workload. I love the guy, but he's not pitching into October this year. Skubal will still pitch the entire season.

The innings limit is an artificial limitation. It doesn’t mean Crochet can’t or won’t pitch in the post season. Skubal has never topped 149 and that was in 2021. 117 in 2022. 80 last year. Yet, you’re confident Skrubal pitches the full season and post season. Ok.

1968. Jim Palmer pitches 0 innings
1969 Jim Palmer pitches 181 innings plus 1 playoff and 1 WS game.

Didn’t happen. Can’t be done.

Chris Sale - age 23. 78 innings in relief
Chris Sale age 24. 180 innings as a starter.

Innings limits. Proven to ………. hmmm. They aren’t proven to do anything. Have we prevented injuries?

[dude]

Yes. We have a deep system. First of all, you’re only guaranteed the first 6-7 years of Holliday. Second of all, we can withstand his loss. A WS championship? No brainer.

 

Agreed on the 6+ thing. The chance of him being an Oriole for 10 years is 0%.  Also, someone list all of the players with an .850 OPS over their first 6+ seasons.  I'd guess the list is really, really short.

 

I've generally planned Holliday to be a starter for the Orioles for the next 6+ years.  I'm good with it.  I don't think he's specifically important, we won 101 games without him last year and we're on a 100+ win pace without him this year, but you try and line up the best guys with the best opportunity.

 

Everything isn't context neutral. 

If we had better near-term starting pitching options, I'd probably tend to value Holliday (<.800 OPS) over the coming years.

If you need a better starting pitching option to compete this season and the next couple, I'd value that over Holliday's likely performance.

 

Easier to find quality at 2B that front end SP.

[Slidemaster]

The innings limit is an artificial limitation. It doesn’t mean Crochet can’t or won’t pitch in the post season. Skubal has never topped 149 and that was in 2021. 117 in 2022. 80 last year. Yet, you’re confident Skrubal pitches the full season and post season. Ok.

1968. Jim Palmer pitches 0 innings
1969 Jim Palmer pitches 181 innings plus 1 playoff and 1 WS game.

Didn’t happen. Can’t be done.

Chris Sale - age 23. 78 innings in relief
Chris Sale age 24. 180 innings as a starter.

Innings limits. Proven to ………. hmmm. They aren’t proven to do anything. Have we prevented injuries?

First of all, trying to compare what pitchers are doing now to what Jim Palmer did almost 60 years ago is akin to saying that someone can win 500 games because Cy Young did it back in the dead ball era. The game is so different that it's not even worth thinking about. As for Sale, he pitched over 100 innings in college right before going going pro, and was not coming back from TJ.

Secondly, nobody said it can't be done, nor is this an argument over whether lnnings limits prevent injuries or not. Factually, the organization will simply not allow Crochet to pitch full bore the rest of the season, particularly in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Feel free to scream into the wind all you want on that. It's not happening. If Crochet actually was acquired, you can bet they would limit his innings down the stretch to keep him able to pitch in the playoffs, or at best, move him to the bullpen prior to the playoffs. There's not a chance in hell Skubal has a chance to pitch in the postseason and doesn't unless he gets hurt.

Thirdly, once again, you are unbelievably condescending in the way you post. There's no need for it unless you think your points can't stand on their own without trying to belittle someone.

[RichardZ]

First of all, trying to compare what pitchers are doing now to what Jim Palmer did almost 60 years ago is akin to saying that someone can win 500 games because Cy Young did it back in the dead ball era. The game is so different that it's not even worth thinking about. As for Sale, he pitched over 100 innings in college right before going going pro, and was not coming back from TJ.
Secondly, nobody said it can't be done, nor is this an argument over whether lnnings limits prevent injuries or not. Factually, the organization will simply not allow Crochet to pitch full bore the rest of the season, particularly in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Feel free to scream into the wind all you want on that. It's not happening. If Crochet actually was acquired, you can bet they would limit his innings down the stretch to keep him able to pitch in the playoffs, or at best, move him to the bullpen prior to the playoffs. There's not a chance in hell Skubal has a chance to pitch in the postseason and doesn't unless he gets hurt.
Thirdly, once again, you are unbelievably condescending in the way you post. There's no need for it unless you think your points can't stand on their own without trying to belittle someone.

What in my post was condescending or belittling? Can you copy and paste the parts you thought were?

[Slidemaster]

Yet, you’re confident Skrubal pitches the full season and post season. Ok.

1968. Jim Palmer pitches 0 innings
1969 Jim Palmer pitches 181 innings plus 1 playoff and 1 WS game.

Didn’t happen. Can’t be done.

Whether you realize it or not, when you say stuff like this it's very condescending.

[RichardZ]

Whether you realize it or not, when you say stuff like this it's very condescending.

Put your big boy pants on. There’s no crying in baseball.

If you found that post condescending and belittling then I think it’s quite ironic that you accused me of having an inferiority complex.

[Mackus]

I think you could responsibly allow Crochet to get to about 160 innings coming off of last year.  Push it a little further to 180 if you do smart things like limit his per-inning and per-game max pitches and spread if over the extra month of the season.  I don't think it's a good use of our resources to give up Holliday or Basallo or Mayo plus more to get him and then have no restrictions on what he does the rest of this season.  There is no firm study that I'm aware of, but I'm with the rest of the sport that thinks that caution is warranted here.

 

They managed Rodriguez a bit down the stretch last year to keep him from going too deep.  He pitched 165ish innings last year after about 75 in 2022.  I think maybe they would push Crochet a little harder because he's two years older, but he's already thrown 100 and there are 4 months left to go.  It's going to be really hard to keep him available in October unless they just completely ignore everything they've done to date to protect pitchers.  

 

I guess its fine to argue that you'd let him throw 225 innings, but I don't find that a very realistic option for Elias and the O's.  I do agree that if I was confident he can pitch until the end of the postseason that he'd be worth a colossal trade package.  I'd trade a nearly as big package for him after the year, assuming he ends the season healthy and effective.

[dude]

You could offer Holliday + to the WS for Crochet and save about 70M (no Baez contract). For all of this talk about durability, Skubal has pitched 149, 117, and 80 the last three years. His numbers, while still good, have regressed each month. You tell me which pitcher is getting tired. In June.

Skubal. 30 IP, 28 H, 10 BB, 32 K
Crochet 36 IP, 27 H, 6 BB, 56 K

 

I think there are some pretty big differences between Skubal and Crochet sitting here today.

 

Skubal has been a starter (and as you pointed out) had 150 IP at age 24.  He's back from injury (last year) and was been amazing last year and he's a Cy contender today.

 

Crochet has never worked a starters load in his life and he's coming back (more recent recovery) from surgery. Every team, the CWS or any team that trades for him, are going to pull back on the reins this season.

 

Watching them both pitch, I feel like Crochet is a lot more jerky or violent in his delivery.  Not saying it's a reason to avoid the guy (who knows these days, everyone gets hurt) but if you're doing any kind of reasonable risk assessment for performance, I'm Skubal better than Crochet.

[RichardZ]

I think there are some pretty big differences between Skubal and Crochet sitting here today.

Skubal has been a starter (and as you pointed out) had 150 IP at age 24. He's back from injury (last year) and was been amazing last year and he's a Cy contender today.

Crochet has never worked a starters load in his life and he's coming back (more recent recovery) from surgery. Every team, the CWS or any team that trades for him, are going to pull back on the reins this season.

Watching them both pitch, I feel like Crochet is a lot more jerky or violent in his delivery. Not saying it's a reason to avoid the guy (who knows these days, everyone gets hurt) but if you're doing any kind of reasonable risk assessment for performance, I'm Skubal better than Crochet.

Herky, jerky. Does what he does as part of his windup really matter? I don’t claim to be a pitching coach but the actual arm action and delivery look very clean to me. Probably why he’s only walked 20 in 101.

Is he riskier than Skubal? Yes, but they’re both risky. Crochet is also 6’6 235. A big, strong, horse. Doesn’t mean he won’t get hurt or wear down but the dude (not you) is strong.

https://youtu.be/iyh...VOdeGhB1oDKMlzw

P.S. Crochet is actually reported to be available. I know you think you can make Skubal available but the Tigers don’t seem like a motivated seller.

MLBTR

“ The Dodgers, however, view Crochet as a legitimate October weapon regardless of the role in which he’s used and could simply figure out the specifics of his usage down the line, depending on how the second half of the season plays out.”

It’s all in the eye of the beholder but I watched videos of both pitchers. First, let me say Skubal is really, really good and I’d love to have him under the right circumstances. But I think he’s got a more herky jerky delivery than Crochet. Whatever. It works.

https://youtu.be/A8-...a7Tx1SnGHzavywm

[russsnyder]

I don't get why any team would take on Baez under any circumstances other than picking him up in a year or so when he is DFAed by the Tigers.

[Mackus]

I don't get why any team would take on Baez under any circumstances other than picking him up in a year or so when he is DFAed by the Tigers.

 

You'd do it to lessen the cost to acquire Skubal.  Similar to how the Mets ate a lot of salary in the Scherzer and Verlander trades last season to increase the prospect haul going their direction, a team could anchor a marketable player with a negative value contract but they would then get less prospect value in return.  This is what the Orioles did when trading Gausman to the Braves, they anchored him with O'Day's salary.  Red Sox did this with Mookie Betts by tying David Price around his neck.

 

However, it'd be outrageous to trade Holliday AND have to take on $85M in dead money. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

What would be so wrong with managing Crochet to keep his innings down to use him in October. I know pitchers like routine but what about limiting him to 5 innings a start (all most of our guys throw anyway) and skipping every 4th turn?

[Slidemaster]

Put your big boy pants on. There’s no crying in baseball.

If you found that post condescending and belittling then I think it’s quite ironic that you accused me of having an inferiority complex.

Lol. You make my point better than I ever could.

[russsnyder]

You'd do it to lessen the cost to acquire Skubal. Similar to how the Mets ate a lot of salary in the Scherzer and Verlander trades last season to increase the prospect haul going their direction, a team could anchor a marketable player with a negative value contract but they would then get less prospect value in return. This is what the Orioles did when trading Gausman to the Braves, they anchored him with O'Day's salary. Red Sox did this with Mookie Betts by tying David Price around his neck.

However, it'd be outrageous to trade Holliday AND have to take on $85M in dead money.

I don't think any team will or should do this anymore. IMO, it's bad business to take on a bad player with a bad contract. The examples you give are a couple of years old. Also, Elias does not operate this way and I think it's a plus.

[Slidemaster]

Herky, jerky. Does what he does as part of his windup really matter? I don’t claim to be a pitching coach but the actual arm action and delivery look very clean to me. Probably why he’s only walked 20 in 101.

Is he riskier than Skubal? Yes, but they’re both risky. Crochet is also 6’6 235. A big, strong, horse. Doesn’t mean he won’t get hurt or wear down but the dude (not you) is strong.

https://youtu.be/iyh...VOdeGhB1oDKMlzw

P.S. Crochet is actually reported to be available. I know you think you can make Skubal available but the Tigers don’t seem like a motivated seller.

MLBTR

“ The Dodgers, however, view Crochet as a legitimate October weapon regardless of the role in which he’s used and could simply figure out the specifics of his usage down the line, depending on how the second half of the season plays out.”

It’s all in the eye of the beholder but I watched videos of both pitchers. First, let me say Skubal is really, really good and I’d love to have him under the right circumstances. But I think he’s got a more herky jerky delivery than Crochet. Whatever. It works.

https://youtu.be/A8-...a7Tx1SnGHzavywm

Crochet already blew his arm out 2 years ago. You knew that right?

[russsnyder]

What would be so wrong with managing Crochet to keep his innings down to use him in October. I know pitchers like routine but what about limiting him to 5 innings a start (all most of our guys throw anyway) and skipping every 4th turn?

Nothing at all wrong with it.

The Orioles limited GRods innings very recently.