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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 08:51 AM

Boston is .500 at 34-34, 14 GB of NY.

Toronto 33-35, 15 GB of NY.

TB 32-36, 16 GB of NY. 

 

Wild Card wise.... Boston is 2 GB of the 3rd WC (Minnesota, 36-32), Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4. 

 

Feels like they've been eliminated from the Division race, but still a decent chance for one of them to make the post-season. 


Of course whoever doesn't win the East (NY or Baltimore) is making the playoffs, and KC is still 9 games over. 500 despite losing their last 4. 

 

Cleveland has a 5.5 game lead over KC in the Central.

 

Seattle is now 10 over .500, and has a 6.5 game lead over Texas in the West.  Both the Rangers (32-35) and Houston (31-38) under .500. 

 

Boston and Toronto are ahead of Texas.
Texas ahead of Tampa Bay who is ahead of Houston. 

 

 

 



#2 Mackus

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 09:37 AM

I agree eliminated from the division.  12 games back to overtake 1 team would be extremely unlikely but plausible, but each of these teams trail 2 teams by such huge amounts.  

 

I think it's plausible that each of these three teams are sellers at the deadline.  Seems like something the Rays will definitely entertain.  Blue Jays less likely but they may have bigger chips to move if they think they need to cash in now.  



#3 weird-O

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Posted 13 June 2024 - 09:58 AM

At this point, I think there's enough season left for everyone, except LAA, A's & White Sox. In the NL, everyone except COL & MIA.

 

I know it's tough to leapfrog 3 or more teams. And while I don't think it will happen, it can happen. 


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#4 Grindelwald

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 05:51 AM

At this point, I think there's enough season left for everyone, except LAA, A's & White Sox. In the NL, everyone except COL & MIA.

I know it's tough to leapfrog 3 or more teams. And while I don't think it will happen, it can happen.

Mets are kinda done too.

#5 Mackus

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 07:18 AM

At this point, I think there's enough season left for everyone, except LAA, A's & White Sox. In the NL, everyone except COL & MIA.

 

I know it's tough to leapfrog 3 or more teams. And while I don't think it will happen, it can happen. 

 

Its not literally impossible, but I think its practically impossible.  I haven't tried looking it up, but my guess would be that no team has ever overcome a 10+ game deficit behind second place at this point in a season and gone on to win the division.  So it would take something historic, or nearly historic even if it has been done before but only a few times.  I'm comfortable ruling all three other AL East teams out of the division race.  That's not to say they can't finish ahead of either the Orioles or the Yankees, just that they can't realistically finish ahead of both.



#6 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 07:41 AM


Its not literally impossible, but I think its practically impossible. I haven't tried looking it up, but my guess would be that no team has ever overcome a 10+ game deficit behind second place at this point in a season and gone on to win the division. So it would take something historic, or nearly historic even if it has been done before but only a few times. I'm comfortable ruling all three other AL East teams out of the division race. That's not to say they can't finish ahead of either the Orioles or the Yankees, just that they can't realistically finish ahead of both.

My guess is it has happened but obviously it would be rare.

#7 makoman

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 08:13 AM

The 2006 Twins fit. On June 13 they were 12 games behind 1st and 10.5 behind 2nd. There were some days even into July where they were 9 games back of 2nd place.

The 2002 A's were 10 games back for a good chunk of May but the biggest I could tell was 8 games back of 2nd. They won 20 in a row later and won the division by 4 games.

The 2012 A's were 13 games out on June 30th, also 6.5 out of 2nd.

Coming back from 10+ behind two teams has to be incredibly rare.
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#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 08:21 AM

My thought was it might be more likely to happen with less divisions. When there were only 2 divisions or just an AL and an NL. 



#9 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 08:28 AM

The 2006 Twins fit. On June 13 they were 12 games behind 1st and 10.5 behind 2nd. There were some days even into July where they were 9 games back of 2nd place.

The 2002 A's were 10 games back for a good chunk of May but the biggest I could tell was 8 games back of 2nd. They won 20 in a row later and won the division by 4 games.

The 2012 A's were 13 games out on June 30th, also 6.5 out of 2nd.

Coming back from 10+ behind two teams has to be incredibly rare.

 

Man they should make a movie about that team



#10 weird-O

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 08:52 AM

Its not literally impossible, but I think its practically impossible.  I haven't tried looking it up, but my guess would be that no team has ever overcome a 10+ game deficit behind second place at this point in a season and gone on to win the division.  So it would take something historic, or nearly historic even if it has been done before but only a few times.  I'm comfortable ruling all three other AL East teams out of the division race.  That's not to say they can't finish ahead of either the Orioles or the Yankees, just that they can't realistically finish ahead of both.

After revisiting this thread, I realized I didn't add that I was referring to the wild card chase. 


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#11 Mackus

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Posted 14 June 2024 - 08:56 AM

After revisiting this thread, I realized I didn't add that I was referring to the wild card chase. 

 

Ah, ok.  Yeah all are still very much alive for that. I still think that Tampa decides to sell despite being close, but Toronto and Boston are more likely to stand pat or even add to try and make a run.


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#12 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 15 June 2024 - 02:16 AM

Way to hang in there tonight, Boston. Shit team.

#13 mdrunning

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Posted 16 June 2024 - 12:26 AM

My thought was it might be more likely to happen with less divisions. When there were only 2 divisions or just an AL and an NL. 

The 1914 Boston Braves were in last place on July 4 with a 26-40 record, which put them 15 games behind the NL-leading Giants. They won 68 of their last 87 games to win the National League pennant by 10.5 games over the Giants. 

 

I can't find, however, the respective standings when they started that run. They didn't move into first place until September 8, so there had to be considerable distance between last and even second place when the Braves started stacking up wins.


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#14 makoman

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Posted 16 June 2024 - 06:46 AM

The 1914 Boston Braves were in last place on July 4 with a 26-40 record, which put them 15 games behind the NL-leading Giants. They won 68 of their last 87 games to win the National League pennant by 10.5 games over the Giants. 

 

I can't find, however, the respective standings when they started that run. They didn't move into first place until September 8, so there had to be considerable distance between last and even second place when the Braves started stacking up wins.

They were 10.5 out of second on July 4th. At the time last was 8th place. Pretty remarkable run they had. 

 

Baseball reference has standings by date.

 

https://www.baseball...date=1914-07-04



#15 jamesdean

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Posted 16 June 2024 - 08:39 AM

The 1978 New York Yankees comeback from 14 back on July 19th was pretty impressive.  Total collapse by the Red Sox.  Also, the 1964 Phillies meltdown was one for the books.  Up by 6 1/2 games with 15 left, they managed to lose the pennant to St. Louis.  






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