17 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Elias suggests patience with struggling outfielders

https://www.masnspor...rioles-outfield

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Its a good problem to have but only to a point. Going to come to a head in July.

[weird-O]

It looks like 2021 was an outlier season for Mullins. If someone else starts to produce, it's probably time to move him to the 4th OFer role.   

[NewMarketSean]

Patience? Mullins has been mid-subpar offensively since 2021.

 

Cowser has been subpar offensively except for like 2 weeks since he was called up last July.

 

Santander deserves the biggest BOTD but his ABs at times have been absolutely dreadful.

 

Hays has been awful since last year's ASB.

 

Kjerstad was called up and barely played and Stowers likely won't play much either. Neither have shown much in the time they have played.

 

Suddenly, this deep OF talent pool looks like a skateboard park.

[BSLMikeLowe]

It looks like 2021 was an outlier season for Mullins. If someone else starts to produce, it's probably time to move him to the 4th OFer role.   

 

Therein lies the problem. Given the big league track record of the OF possibilities, I'd imagine the one most likely to start producing next is none other than Mullins himself. I think we all agree he'll never be the '21 version, but he's not this bad either.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Mullins - '21 was an outlier.  '22 and '23, he had a .721 OPS each year.  That level, plus his defense, makes him plenty usable. Is he a sub .600 OPS guy, or a low 700s OPS guy?

 

Cowser - Still has a .831 OPS.  He has 111 ab's this year, 172 for his career.  We saw a very hot stretch, we've seen a very cold stretch. Things even out.  The OD expectations were probably .750 to .800 for a season.  I think that's realistic. 

 

Santander - Will get regular everyday abs. 

 

Hays - If Cowser continues to struggle (or Mullins becomes unplayable, and Cowser takes over CF); he will have a chance to again get regular ab's.  Here in '24, he's had 46 ab's.  Yeah, they were horrible.  He was also horrible last July.  He was above average last August (.858 OPS), and he was below average but livable last September.  He's closing in on 2,000 career ab's, and has a career .741 OPS.  I think you can expect that.

 

Stowers -  4A guy, maybe helps situationally.  Could probably go and start for a number of other teams though, and while they are not similar in styles, wouldn't surprise me at all if he was capable of Steve Pearce level production when going good. 

 

Kjerstad - Might not find regular ML ab's this year with Mountcastle, O'Hearn, and Santander all on the roster.  At some point in '25, I expect him and Mayo are getting regular time at 1st and DH.

 

 

 

 

I think the biggest thing to watch with the OF over the next 4-6 weeks is Mullins. 
If you get to a point you have to make a change there, that will have a lot of surrounding impact. 

[russsnyder]

I'm most concerned about Mullins as well.

I think the leg injuries are starting to take their toll. I don't have a lot of confidence that He'll get back to an acceptable offensive level of performance. (I love the guy,so I hope he gets it going.)

Let's see what Hays does. Hopefully, coming off the injury will give him a fresh start.

I think Stoner is right Cowser. We'll see hot and cold streaks. Looking for a hot.

Overall, I'm fine with being a bit more patient with this group.

[jamesdean]

I'm not feeling as confident about all that AAA talent and how their abilities translate to the major league level.  I'm not sure why there is such a huge discrepancy between pitching at the highest level and AAA but it was almost shocking to see how overmatched Holliday was up here.  They quickly figured out Cowser's weaknesses and he hasn't adjusted much.  Kjerstad looked overmatched too, even if it was a very small sample.  It makes you wonder if the same thing is going to happen to Mayo and Norby also.  And with Mullins struggling so mightily, sending him to the bench really doesn't solve much other than weakening the defense. 

[makoman]

I'm not feeling as confident about all that AAA talent and how their abilities translate to the major league level.  I'm not sure why there is such a huge discrepancy between pitching at the highest level and AAA but it was almost shocking to see how overmatched Holliday was up here.  They quickly figured out Cowser's weaknesses and he hasn't adjusted much.  Kjerstad looked overmatched too, even if it was a very small sample.  It makes you wonder if the same thing is going to happen to Mayo and Norby also.  And with Mullins struggling so mightily, sending him to the bench really doesn't solve much other than weakening the defense. 

And Westburg seems fine, and Adley and Gunnar are going to get MVP votes every year. Ortiz was traded but seems fine. If you want to go back a bit Mountcastle and Hays and Mullins developed into solid regulars. Yeah, some of the prospects will fail. Always have, always will. Some will be good, and some will be better than they were supposed to be. A couple failing (and none of the big ones have really failed, yet) doesn't mean others will.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm not feeling as confident about all that AAA talent and how their abilities translate to the major league level.  I'm not sure why there is such a huge discrepancy between pitching at the highest level and AAA but it was almost shocking to see how overmatched Holliday was up here.  They quickly figured out Cowser's weaknesses and he hasn't adjusted much.  Kjerstad looked overmatched too, even if it was a very small sample.  It makes you wonder if the same thing is going to happen to Mayo and Norby also.  And with Mullins struggling so mightily, sending him to the bench really doesn't solve much other than weakening the defense. 

 

It's almost like baseball is a game built around failure, and that SSS only tells you so much. 

 

Honestly, it was 34 ab's for Holliday. 
Not just adjusting to MLB pitching, but being a 20 year old kid getting his first taste of the bigs and pressing over 10 games. They felt he needed to make a mechanical change... okay. 
If you loved him as a prospect prior to his promotion, nothing that happened in those 34 ab's should change your perspective.

You think Cowser has been figured out?  I think he was hitting everything at an extreme level, and there were some league adjustments, and he's struggled. To me, that's more of just things having a way of leveling out.   He wasn't going to continue to hit at MVP levels, and nor should we think he will continue to not hit at all. 

Kjerstad looked overmatched?  He had 14 sporadic ab's.  

[jamesdean]

It's almost like baseball is a game built around failure, and that SSS only tells you so much. 
 
Honestly, it was 34 ab's for Holliday. 
Not just adjusting to MLB pitching, but being a 20 year old kid getting his first taste of the bigs and pressing over 10 games. They felt he needed to make a mechanical change... okay. 
If you loved him as a prospect prior to his promotion, nothing that happened in those 34 ab's should change your perspective.
You think Cowser has been figured out?  I think he was hitting everything at an extreme level, and there were some league adjustments, and he's struggled. To me, that's more of just things having a way of leveling out.   He wasn't going to continue to hit at MVP levels, and nor should we think he will continue to not hit at all. 
Kjerstad looked overmatched?  He had 14 sporadic ab's.  

That's obviously the optimistic outlook and I hope you're right on all points.

[RichardZ]

That's obviously the optimistic outlook and I hope you're right on all points.

What was optimistic about it? He wasn’t predicting greatness or even success for anyone. Just telling you to chill out.

[Mike B]

Mullins - '21 was an outlier.  '22 and '23, he had a .721 OPS each year.  That level, plus his defense, makes him plenty usable. Is he a sub .600 OPS guy, or a low 700s OPS guy?

 

Cowser - Still has a .831 OPS.  He has 111 ab's this year, 172 for his career.  We saw a very hot stretch, we've seen a very cold stretch. Things even out.  The OD expectations were probably .750 to .800 for a season.  I think that's realistic. 

 

Santander - Will get regular everyday abs. 

 

Hays - If Cowser continues to struggle (or Mullins becomes unplayable, and Cowser takes over CF); he will have a chance to again get regular ab's.  Here in '24, he's had 46 ab's.  Yeah, they were horrible.  He was also horrible last July.  He was above average last August (.858 OPS), and he was below average but livable last September.  He's closing in on 2,000 career ab's, and has a career .741 OPS.  I think you can expect that.

 

Stowers -  4A guy, maybe helps situationally.  Could probably go and start for a number of other teams though, and while they are not similar in styles, wouldn't surprise me at all if he was capable of Steve Pearce level production when going good. 

 

Kjerstad - Might not find regular ML ab's this year with Mountcastle, O'Hearn, and Santander all on the roster.  At some point in '25, I expect him and Mayo are getting regular time at 1st and DH.

 

 

 

 

I think the biggest thing to watch with the OF over the next 4-6 weeks is Mullins. 
If you get to a point you have to make a change there, that will have a lot of surrounding impact. 

Have we seen anywhere enough of Stowers to be sure he is only a 4A player?  Maybe you, and others are right, but he has 121 MLB AB's, spread over 2 years.  I want to see more.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Have we seen anywhere enough of Stowers to be sure he is only a 4A player?  Maybe you, and others are right, but he has 121 MLB AB's, spread over 2 years.  I want to see more.  

Sure but at whose expense? Do you want to see more of Stowers vs Kjerstad? How about vs Cowser? How about vs Norby or Mayo? The problem is they all can't have extended looks at the ML level. They just can't. You aren't wrong in wanting to see more of Stowers but then somebody else (and probably several somebodies) aren't getting a look.

[jamesdean]

What was optimistic about it? He wasn’t predicting greatness or even success for anyone. Just telling you to chill out.

Certainly, more optimistic than my post.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Have we seen anywhere enough of Stowers to be sure he is only a 4A player?  Maybe you, and others are right, but he has 121 MLB AB's, spread over 2 years.  I want to see more.  

Like I said before, I think he's capable of helping teams, starting for some teams out there...  Pearce had a career .772 OPS, and that big year for us in '14.  I think Stowers is capable of a couple of really solid seasons, in that sense calling him 4A is unfair by me. 

Generally I just think with him already being 26, and struggling to find regular MLB at-bats... he's destined to be a guy who doesn't get a lot of opportunity.  He's shown he can excel at AAA, but at-least here, there doesn't seem to be a path towards consistent playing time. 

 

Also, even if he went somewhere today where he could regularly play (and while again I think he could be productive); I also think he's the type of guy that teams would always be looking to improve on.

[makoman]

Like I said before, I think he's capable of helping teams, starting for some teams out there...  Pearce had a career .772 OPS, and that big year for us in '14.  I think Stowers is capable of a couple of really solid seasons, in that sense calling him 4A is unfair by me. 

Generally I just think with him already being 26, and struggling to find regular MLB at-bats... he's destined to be a guy who doesn't get a lot of opportunity.  He's shown he can excel at AAA, but at-least here, there doesn't seem to be a path towards consistent playing time. 

 

Also, even if he went somewhere today where he could regularly play (and while again I think he could be productive); I also think he's the type of guy that teams would always be looking to improve on.

I think he could hit as well as Hays, not sure about defense though. He hasn't exactly dominated this year, good not great, but I imagine it's difficult mentally to be in your 4th year at AAA. Too bad he wasn't around a couple years earlier, he could have had more opportunity.

[CantonJester]

Sure but at whose expense? Do you want to see more of Stowers vs Kjerstad? How about vs Cowser? How about vs Norby or Mayo? The problem is they all can't have extended looks at the ML level. They just can't. You aren't wrong in wanting to see more of Stowers but then somebody else (and probably several somebodies) aren't getting a look.

 

They talked about this in the O's pregame today and the culprit (for Kjerstad anyway) (if you're going to blame someone) is Ryan O'Hearn. 

 

Stowers is up because they're fine with him stuck on the bench. Kjerstad needs ABs.