57 replies to this topic

[dude]

Twice.  I did it with my fingers too, but that doesn't translate so well through the keyboard.

 

You didn't answer my question re Hays....is he done as a MLB player?

[BobPhelan]

For anyone that's paying attention to what Bob is trying to do here, he's taking several thoughts out of context and trying to frame them to make my position look bad, as if he's actually sharing an opinion I've had.

It's flat out intellectually dishonest, but he's been doing it a number of times recently. #character

To your credit you put yourself out there. I disagree with you a lot so just like to poke fun good naturedly (hopefully comes across that way) since I’ve learned it’s impossible to debate with you, at least over text on a message board.

[makoman]

I have no reason to think he's done, but there is a wide chasm between "done as a MLB player" and "want to pay him post-arb prices to keep him around another several years." We've decided to focus the draft on bats, so I don't really see a need to extend non-special bats as long as we continue to have reasonable development success. Most teams have limited resources, we should probably spend those resources on pitching, the thing we don't draft much, not on 105 OPS+ hitters at non-premium positions.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He says hes ok with the Os picking a lane but his second post today sure as heck doesnt sound like hes ok with it. It reads as excuses for Hays and shade thrown at the FO for what was it again "allowing upwards pressure from the organizational OFers".

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He will come in and say its wrong that I misrepresent his desire to spend on older, middling players that could easily decline. Like hes called me out on that when Ive laughed at some of his trade proposals, or FA signings, or extensions. But here we are again with him promoting spending post arb money on a 30+ year old middling non premium position player who could easily decline.

[Mackus]

Mullins' September 2023 was similarly to Hays April. I didn't think Mullins was done nor do I think Hays is done. I do think that Cowser has passed him against RHP even if Hays is still who he's always been.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean define done. Can we agree we think hes already peaked. You can debate if he is still near his peak but no one thinks he has any upside left. Hes a 2 WAR guy if he remains near his peak. The odds that he is on the downside of that 2 WAR ability is a real possibility. You dont extend that type of guy unless you have a hole and no one to fill it internally. But even if we didnt have internal options to replace Hays I wouldnt be that inclined to extend a player with his profile. Certainly not with 2 team controlled years left. Its just not smart. You let him play out the team cotrolled years and if you have to battle to get him back in FA or bring in another FA then thats ok. Again, there is no upisde left. But with internal options I dont think its a pick a lane decision. You do not extend him. Period. I also dont think he offers much value to anyone else around the league. Most Os fans/wanna be GMs value Hays more than any other team. Again, look objectively at what he is and what his profile is and tell me what you think you should expect in any return. All that said, Ive fought against any rash proposals with Hays. I think hes a guy you want to be able to at minimum be in the lineup vs LHP. He also provides good depth in the majors. Youd feel comfortable if he had to play regularly for an injuried Cowser, Mullins, or Santander

[Mackus]

I think he could match the past three years over the next three seasons (huge deficit this year so counting stats will look bad even if he bounces back). I think he's the same guy he's always been, which isnt very good, but it's fine. He's an average LF. We can and will do better, but we've done much worse at other positions in the past.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think he could match the past three years over the next three seasons (huge deficit this year so counting stats will look bad even if he bounces back). I think he's the same guy he's always been, which isnt very good, but it's fine. He's an average LF. We can and will do better, but we've done much worse at other positions in the past.

Youve got him under team control for 2 more years. Or a 1 yr and 5 months. He could still be an avg LF for a few years but the downside is real with IMO no upside as he goes into his 30s. Why would you extend that.

The thing that I think bothers me the most is this notion that you have to squeeze out what you think is every ounce of potential value in trades at the cost of depth and insurance. Even if the plan was to give the job to Cowser or Kjerstad this offseason why is it a mistake to hold onto Hays as a platoon mate or insurance since hes under team control. Sure, you can shop him and listen but if a trade doesnt come along you like the insurance he brings is really nice. There wasn't and still isnt any certainty that Cowser is going to be an avg to good reg. I promise its ok that you didnt squeeze out every last drop of trade value on Hays if Cowser does establish himself as a solid reg and Hays mostly is a bench guy this year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think he's a very solid regular for many teams.
Dont think he has trade value beyond bringing back some low level lotto ticket.

He was horrible last July, strong in August, below average in September, and has started cold.

Apparently lost 10 lbs with the sickness.
Left the game yesterday with the soreness

He will be off the team by the deadline imo.

Cowser younger, longer team control, higher offensive upside.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think he's a very solid regular for many teams.
He was horrible last July, strong in August, below average in September, and has started cold.

Apparently lost 10 lbs with the sickness.
Left the game yesterday with the soreness

He will be off the team by the deadline imo.

Cowser younger, longer team control, higher offensive upside.

I mean hes proven to be somewhere between a 2-2.5 WAR player at his peak. Im not sure thats a very solid reg but we would really be picking nits debating what a very solid reg is and where we think he is as a player right now. Regardless, I will be very surprised if hes off the team by the deadline. Hes not going to be waived. There could end up being a match with another contender out there but I just think thats pretty unlikely.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I mean hes proven to be somewhere between a 2-2.5 WAR player at his peak. Im not sure thats a very solid reg but we would really be picking nits debating what a very solid reg is and where we think he is as a player right now. Regardless, I will be very surprised if hes off the team by the deadline. Hes not going to be waived. There could end up being a match with another contender out there but I just think thats pretty unlikely.

I think he will be off the team by then in a throw away trade, because they could better configure the roster without him.

[BobPhelan]

He’s also just always hurt and even worse than just going the IL and recovering, tries to play through it and inevitably struggles. That’s not going to get any better as he crosses into his 30’s.

[dude]

Even if the plan was to give the job to Cowser or Kjerstad this offseason why is it a mistake to hold onto Hays as a platoon mate or insurance since hes under team control. 

 

What I think it kind of funny is that you've tried to position yourself lately as the "culture guy".

 

My argument wasn't that he's the best talent, my position was that he's valuable to the fabric of what you want to do as a Team. I want guys that are Talented but want to be here.

 

Hays isn't going to be part of anything after this year.  I'm not arguing for it at this point (I didn't bring it up).  We'll see what happens.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I have no idea how youve ever come to the conclusion that hes some amazing clubhouse pressence that far outweighs his value on the field.

[RichardZ]

I have no idea how youve ever come to the conclusion that hes some amazing clubhouse pressence that far outweighs his value on the field.

Pick a lane even if it’s going the wrong way on a one way highway. Just pick a lane. It’s all the same.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Pick a lane even if it’s going the wrong way on a one way highway. Just pick a lane. It’s all the same.

Facts

[dude]

I don't think Hays will be here next year. But he certainly could be. Turn the rest of the season around and he sure could be. He's still under contract and maybe some other team offers enough to the O's to trade for Norby or whomever they think is the RH hitter they plan to use instead of Hays.

 

Hardly a foregone conclusion.

 

He's not under contract.  He's under Team control if they offer him arbitration.  If they don't offer him arbitration** (which would be like 8+M) then he becomes a FA. I feel confident that they aren't paying him ARB3 prices to be a frustrated 4th OFer.

 

**They could trade him so another team could offer him arbitration but they aren't getting much (if anything) in return....he's still not an Oriole then.

[dude]

Pick a lane even if it’s going the wrong way on a one way highway. Just pick a lane. It’s all the same.

 

Just itching to get back in on it, huh.  Cool.

 

I don't think any of the options are bad options.  Doing nothing is a decision and it (and any other decision) has consequences that play out over time.

 

Nobody here would support this if it was happening to you in your work space.  Humans gonna human.

[RichardZ]

Just itching to get back in on it, huh. Cool.

I don't think any of the options are bad options. Doing nothing is a decision and it (and any other decision) has consequences that play out over time.

Nobody here would support this if it was happening to you in your work space. Humans gonna human.

How is it that you speak normal English in game threads?

A good communicator understands his audience. There’s two sets of posters here. One has no idea what you’re talking about and the other (I flatter myself by putting myself in this group) has an inkling but realize trying to get more clarity is a futile exercise.

Trying to extend Hays was always a dumb idea. He’s an average player who got off to a bad start which created an opportunity for a more talented, younger player. I wouldn’t be happy if I was Hays but it’s no one else’s fault. It’s baseball. Survival of the better. I bet Cowser is great in the clubhouse too.