59 replies to this topic

[CantonJester]

Too much hinges on Bradish’s return to form to give an accurate assessment. 88-92 wins.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Over on both

Youre predicting a top 2 finish for Gunnar in the MVP voting?

[Mackus]

Youre predicting a top 2 finish for Gunnar in the MVP voting?

2nd to Rutschman

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I may find my way into betting a bit on Adley and Gunnar to win MVP. Like both. Gunnar just has the higher ceiling offesively. Plays a premium defensive postion as well. I was talking to Ricker last night and one of the best bets I saw on DraftKings was a Gunnar vs Witt bet for more HRs. They had Gunnar as the +130 underdog. Presumably because Witt hit more last year. IMO Gunnar has more raw power but he also plays in the more homer friendly park since hes a LH hitter. If you give him a normal first 6 weeks to start last year he hits 30-35. With some progression this year 35-40 HRs is a real possibility.

[jamesdean]

Adley's a good hitter but he's not going to win any MVP.  Gunnar, on the other hand, definitely has the talent and potential to land one at some point in his prime years.  

[makoman]

Adley's a good hitter but he's not going to win any MVP. Gunnar, on the other hand, definitely has the talent and potential to land one at some point in his prime years.

People have insane years. I can see him being normally like a 130 OPS+ guy then having an outlier year like Posey and Mauer did. As a catcher he’s always going to have a good WAR and voters look at that these days.

[CantonJester]

People have insane years. I can see him being normally like a 130 OPS+ guy then having an outlier year like Posey and Mauer did. As a catcher he’s always going to have a good WAR and voters look at that these days.

 

If Adley bumps his OPS+ to say 140 and he leads the O's staff to back-to-back division titles, I'd say he'd be a favorite to win the AL MVP. Gunnar would have to do a lot more than Adley to make voters look past the catching part of the battery that won back to back AL East titles. 

[Mackus]

I think Rutschman's capable of a 900 OPS season if things go well, and as a quality defensive catcher that could be a 7+ WAR season and puts him in contention.

 

I expect low 800s, but think he has potential for more and he's 26 this year so just hitting prime offensive years.

[SonicAttack]

The line-up as is, under 90. But, Gunnar could win MVP, if he does, then the O's are over 90.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yup Adley can win it with lesser pure offensive numbers than Gunnar would need. I think both of their chances should be handicapped pretty evenly for this year.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Adley is not winning any MVP awards.

 

He won't hit 30 HRs and the last player to win the award with less than 30 was Altuve in 2017 when he hit .347 and had 32 SBs. I love Adley and he is terrific to have on this team. But and MVP he is not.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Adley is not winning any MVP awards.

He won't hit 30 HRs and the last player to win the award with less than 30 was Altuve in 2017 when he hit .347 and had 32 SBs. I love Adley and he is terrific to have on this team. But and MVP he is not.

Odds are he wont but your reasoning is very flawed

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Odds are he wont but youre reasoning is very flawed

How so?

 

Guys win the MVP by slugging the hell out of the ball or way less often being a crazy SP.

 

Facts. https://www.baseball...wards/mvp.shtml

[Mackus]

Adley is not winning any MVP awards.

He won't hit 30 HRs and the last player to win the award with less than 30 was Altuve in 2017 when he hit .347 and had 32 SBs. I love Adley and he is terrific to have on this team. But and MVP he is not.

Posey and Mauer each won with under 30 HR (though 950+ OPS). If Adley puts up a 7+ WAR season, he'll be in the mix. Winning of course unlikely, but I expect he'll have a top-5 finish sometime while still in Baltimore. He's already finished 12th and 9th his first two seasons.

Guess if Basallo comes up sooner than later and allows Adley to DH 60 games instead of 30, that'll dip into his value a lot, so that would be difficult to overcome.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Posey won in 2012

Mauer won in 2009. Led the league in average, OBP, and slugging. And still he did hit 28 dingers.

 

The game has changed and its way more about the long ball.  Adley would have to have an offensive year well over his projections in a season when others lag.  Just don't see it.

 

And yeah Mackus if Basallo comes along that will really lower his chances. But really as long as Adley does Adley level things we'll all be happy.

[Slidemaster]

I couldn't care less if Adley wins the MVP. He could be a top 5 catcher for a decade and he is the emotional leader of the team. Whatever player that makes him is good enough for me.

[Mackus]

I'm just pushing back on your "never" and "no chance" talk. I agree it's unlikely, hell it's unlikely Gunnar wins one and I think he's better. But I think Adley has the ability to put up a big season in whatever becomes his career year. 310/420/490 doesn't seem impossible to me, and if he does that he's going to have a good chance at winning. 26-29 are prime offensive years, so I'm excited to see if he can tap in to another level. Again he's already gotten plenty of votes both of his first two years. Not like he's starting way out of the running.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Back in the day voters certainly favored pure offensive numbers. WAR wasnt a thing nor did they factor it in once it did become a thing. Thats changed a good bit. So if Adley trails some offensive juggernaut offensively, lets just use Soto as an example, but puts up more WAR and is on a team that is better he gets the majority of the votes now

[BobPhelan]

For the record Adley is fully capable of putting up a 30 HR season.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

For the record Adley is fully capable of putting up a 30 HR season.

I think 30 would be a career year for him. At least with the stadium configurations the way they are now