9 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The OD rosters play each other 162 games...  what do you think their records would be?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Interesting question.

 

Lineup wise I think Norfolk is better than Oakland. But not sure how that would actually translate over a full 162 games. Oakland would have the edge in experience. Norfolk has potentially better (and maybe much better) talent.

 

Pitching wise I think Oakland is better.

 

Over 162 games? Maybe Oakland 85 - Norfolk 77

[makoman]

I don’t know their roster at all, but it looks like last year they totaled 5.4 bWAR, which is nuts. 2018 O’s by comparison were 13ish. AAA should almost by definition be around zero or so. One could argue guys like Holliday, Kjerstad, Norby, Cowser if there, would be better than replacement, some others of course would be worse. In this hypo I’d worry about the pitching most. Can’t recall what we have other than Povich and Mcdermott, and the guys like Vespi who’ve gotten cups of coffee.

I thought this was a silly question at first, now I’m not so sure. That it’s even a question is a testament to our org depth and shows how bad the As may be. Of course even on the As the bottom roster guys are probably a lot better than bottom roster AAA guys who are just org depth, so that could be the difference. So top of the roster may be a favorable comparison, spots 15+ probably not.

Caveat I know WAR =/= wins, just easy shorthand.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think the pitching and the depth would give them the edge over Norfolk's better high end talent over 162 games...  I'm thinking something like 62-100 for Norfolk.

 

FanGraphs projected fWAR is 26... White Sox 23.9.... Nationals 21.1...     maybe the question should have been Norfolk vs. Colorado... the Rockies projected fWAR is 17.6.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Position player wise, at least to start the year, I'm convinced Norfolk is better than some teams. Its def the pitching depth that would be the question mark.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah the Tides have 0 top-100 pitching prospects where that'd get exposed pretty often over 162 games 

[Mackus]

Tides would win 45-50 times.

[dude]

Ha! Great topic.  I was actually going to start something liike this as the Orioles loaded up a AAA team that was already the best AAA ever (I think that's correct, right?)

 

I don't think the Talent separation between any 2 teams is actually that great in terms of the 162 game season.  If the Tides played the As 1000 times, you get a lot of variance in results both in terms of value of experience, top end talent, etc.

 

Personally, I think the Tides have a bunch of guys that fall into the "Major League ready" category and have argued for several of them starting for the Orioles or being traded into other situations where they'd be ML starters this season....so projecting them in some Game against the A's or another team isn't an outlandish suggestion (like College vs Pro football) because many of them would be starting in the Majors this year if the Orioles had done more shaping this winter.

 

Whether they'd go 70-92 or 86-76 isn't that important.  They'd cfertainly compete.  There's no 162-0  or 0-162 outcomes here, everyone can compete like a typical NCAA Tourney #12 seed or this year where the #11s (3-1) laid the wood to the #6s.

 

Here's the (maybe) more more interesting question.

 

How many teams in MLB would TRADE their ML Roster for the Tides roster right now.  It isn't so much about the record in this season as it is the quality and opportunity that presents itself over the next 5+ years (performance and cost).

 

That isn't a question anyone actually ever asks because it's kind of ridiculous, but there are zero other AAA Teams you could even posture this question about (ever?) and I'd suggest there's more than the A's that would take you up on it.

[BSLRoseKatz]

"How many teams in MLB would TRADE their ML Roster for the Tides roster right now. It isn't so much about the record in this season as it is the quality and opportunity that presents itself over the next 5+ years (performance and cost)."

 

I think a related question is would more teams have taken this offer for the 2023 Tides OD roster at this time last year (Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, Grayson and DL) or the 2024 roster? I think the 2023 roster would've been more enticing just for the gap in rotation quality 

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Terrible MLB Teams Are Pretty Good at Baseball