244 replies to this topic

[BSLZackKiesel]

Btw I dont know exactly how all of the NIL stuff works. Like how much it takes. How realistic it is to compete. Part of me doesnt mind that they arent out here going balls deep into it all. It’s gone way too far. It’s not fun at all to see so few guys stick around for 2 or 3 years. Marylands product on the court has contributed to my apathey but so has the landscape of college athletics in general. The NCAA tourny is by far the most interest I have in any college event and that has now become mostly because of betting

I’ve seen figures that suggest the average starter at a major-conference program demands about $300K. So if you extrapolate that to five starters, you need at least $1.5M. If you want better-than-average starters or reserves, you’re likely looking at a minimum of $2.5-3.0M to field a competitive roster each season.

[glenn__davis]

Btw I dont know exactly how all of the NIL stuff works. Like how much it takes. How realistic it is to compete. Part of me doesnt mind that they arent out here going balls deep into it all. Its gone way too far. Its not fun at all to see so few guys stick around for 2 or 3 years. Marylands product on the court has contributed to my apathy but so has the landscape of college athletics in general. The NCAA tourny is by far the most interest I have in any college event and that has now become mostly because of betting

 

Largely agree.  I have just about 0 excitement in the tourney this year but I'm sure much of that is due to MD being a non-factor.  I'm sure I'll tune in a bit during the opening weekend if nothing else of interest is on but not appointment TV for me at this point.

[BSLZackKiesel]

Dug McDaniel (Michigan) has officially entered the transfer portal, as expected. He’ll be at or near the top of Maryland’s list.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Reese is the only player who could leave of any value. I'm indifferent on him.

Wouldn't lose sleep if all of them leave, but next year will probably be even worse than this season was.

Maryland basketball is in a dark place.

 

 

I hope Reese returns but it's real hard to envision a tournament team next year even if he does. Too few players and not enough money to bring in the 5 guys we'd need, then have to integrate all those new guys even if you can find them. Huge ask. Doesn't feel possible. I'd say no better than 1-in-5 chance they dance next season.

 

If Reese returns, DHS and Kaiser improve, and you add two guards / wings who you would expect to score...  the turnaround can be very quick. 

If you lose Reese, the Freshman don't make a Year 2 leap, and you don't add any impact... next year will be another brutal season, and Willard will be gone. 

[Mackus]

If Reese returns, DHS and Kaiser improve, and you add two guards / wings who you would expect to score...  the turnaround can be very quick. 

 

These "ifs" all individually feel like long shots, and that's within the "if Reese returns" portion of the equation which is at best a coin flip, right? All of those things happening still wouldn't ensure really strong odds of being a tourney team and all of those things happening is very improbable. 

 

1-in-5 of dancing next year feels optimistic to me. And that's just to eke into the dance, that's Sweet 16 expectations which is the level the program should be at consistently.  This is by far the most pessimistic about the program I've ever been.  They're incapable of fixing things, IMO.  Only hope is waiting out for rule changes that level the financial things and then getting good again at that point.  Really hope I'm wrong.

[BSLChrisStoner]

These "ifs" all individually feel like long shots, and that's within the "if Reese returns" portion of the equation which is at best a coin flip, right? All of those things happening still wouldn't ensure really strong odds of being a tourney team and all of those things happening is very improbable. 

 

1-in-5 of dancing next year feels optimistic to me. And that's just to eke into the dance, that's Sweet 16 expectations which is the level the program should be at consistently.  This is by far the most pessimistic about the program I've ever been.  They're incapable of fixing things, IMO.  Only hope is waiting out for rule changes that level the financial things and then getting good again at that point.  Really hope I'm wrong.

 

 

DHS and Kaiser being better doesn't feel like a longshot to me.  
They were both well regarded, DHS was extremely well regarded.
Their struggles this year carry more weight than what they regarded as, as recruits... but presumably there is talent there with both (and we did see flashes). Most improvement typically comes between the Freshman and Soph years.  Them improving and being regularly productive doesn't feel like a reach to me.  How much they improve is the question imo.

 

Reese returning is definitely a coin flip, and I believe the IMS report about him now leaning towards leaving is correct.
If he leaves early, you at-least have a better chance of replacing him.
But as I said in another thread recently, you don't want him to leave... the chances of improving on him are slim, even with his limitations. 

I'm pretty confident they'll get one at-least one portal player with a history of scoring, and also pretty confident they'll add a second they feel good about.  If they lose Reese, I'm more skeptical of them adding a 3rd viable piece. 

 

But in a scenario where Reese returns, Queen is productive, DHS and Kaiser are 'better', and they've added 2 scorers... then I think they would dance. 

 

Reese returning should be a good barometer in-terms of determining if anyone is going to step up with real NIL dollars.  I mean maybe he wants to chase a championship somewhere, but most likely we are talking about him wanting to be paid. 

And also he has NBA aspirations.  
Spending next year as a 4 next to Queen, should be appealing to him.
Cause if he's going to sniff being drafted after next year, it's going to be as a 4. 

Don't really see an NBA future for him, but it's possible.

[Mackus]

DHS and Kaiser will be better, almost certainly, but that's not super meaningful. Whether they can improve by enough to be solid starters (late career Hart or Scott level, not asking for them to be all conference) is what we'd need, and I think that's less than 50/50 for both of them. And you still need two more starter or primary rotation guys like you mentioned originally. And you'd need Reese to return.

That's asking a whole lot.

[Mackus]

But in a scenario where Reese returns, Queen is productive, DHS and Kaiser are 'better', and they've added 2 scorers... then I think they would dance. 

 

If all that goes right, yes, I think they'd be a tournament team.  That's a ton of things to go right, which is why I estimated 1-in-5 chance of dancing.  Its bleak for sure.

[BSLChrisStoner]

DHS and Kaiser will be better, almost certainly, but that's not super meaningful. Whether they can improve by enough to be solid starters (late career Hart or Scott level, not asking for them to be all conference) is what we'd need, and I think that's less than 50/50 for both of them. And you still need two more starter or primary rotation guys like you mentioned originally. And you'd need Reese to return.

That's asking a whole lot.

If DHS and Kaiser can't be solid starters (consistently productive rotational pieces... 25-30 minutes a game); it would definitely be very hard for MD to be good under any scenario. 

Entire focus right now needs to be Reese.
MD should figure out what it would cost to retain him, and hopefully get it done.
If it's not going to happen, get that known asap so you have more time to try and find some type of answer.

[BaltBird 24]

Gotta hope Willard can figure something out because I don't think they'll be financially able to move on from him anytime soon even if they want to. Had a bad feeling he was a very underwhelming hire from the beginning.

Turgeon was a better hire than Willard and Turgeon arguably left Maryland in a better spot than Gary did when he left. Granted, I guess the landscape of college athletics has changed quite a bit in that time frame.

[Mackus]

I'm not all that down on Willard himself, but its kind of crazy how big of a disaster the season was and how bleak things look for the immediate future.  Its going to take way more than just Willard doing a great job to have any hope.  I really doubt that Willard will be the limiting factor for the program for the next few years.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Other than maybe putting too much hope into the Hunter Dickinson sweepstakes with no Plan B, I don't know that Willard deserves that much blame for this season's disaster. While everything might have to go right to get back into the tournament next season, you can also say just about everything that could go wrong this season did. The freshmen didn't contribute much, Reese didn't raise his ceiling any, and Scott was half checked out most of the season. How much of that is on Willard I don't know, but I don't think anyone who wasn't present within the program on a regular basis can say either.

 

I really hope that college athletics gets to the inevitable endgame sooner than later, where the schools are the ones paying the athletes, instead of the convoluted "fan tax" disguised as NIL collectives. That the fans are the ones expected to dig into their pockets, while UM is raking in $50-$100M a year from the Big Ten and doesn't pay a dime directly to the players, is absolutely disgusting.

[BaltBird 24]

I'm not even sure how it all went wrong. Or why we expected them to be any better than they ended up being. They were a deeply flawed team even before the zero contribution they received from the freshman class.

[BSLZackKiesel]

Caelum Swanton-Rodger has entered the transfer portal.

[BSLZackKiesel]

Rodney Rice (Virginia Tech) has officially entered the transfer portal. Another player who will be high on Maryland’s list.

[BSLZackKiesel]

In addition to McDaniel and Rice, Maryland has also reportedly shown interest in Tyran Cook (VMI), Dakota Leffew (Mount St. Mary's), and Jacob Crews (UT Martin). Many more to come as the transfer portal kicks into gear.

[BaltBird 24]

Got two duds out (Batchelor and Swanton-Rodger) hopefully there are more to follow (anyone not named Reese, DHS, Kaiser preferably).

[CantonJester]

Got two duds out (Batchelor and Swanton-Rodger) hopefully there are more to follow (anyone not named Reese, DHS, Kaiser preferably).

 

What happens when Batchelor averages 12 points, 3 assists and 4 rebounds a game next year? Even at a mid-major, that will be an indictment of Willard’s ability to develop his players. If he does that at a major program (and 6’6” SGs will draw interest?) The quiet part gets loud. 

[BaltBird 24]

Batchelor had a weird career at MD.

Couldn't ever crack the rotation, even as a bench player, but did manage to shoot a decent 32% from the 3 (very good by Maryland standards).

In 2 years he averaged 1.6 and 1.7 PPG, and 68 of his 77 FG attempts came from behind the 3.

[BaltBird 24]

Swanton-Rodger somehow managed to have more PF than PTS or REB his first two years. That has to be a pretty rare accomplishment.