18 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: The projections are again doubting the Orioles. They don’t care.

[mikezpen]

I've seen win estimates as low as 84 and 86 which is ridiculous. I do think they'll win maybe 5-6 fewer games this year even though they'll be a more talented team than last year's edition. This is partially because they probably won't match their league-leading average w/RISP and because NY is so much improved.

 

MFY have bought themselves another first place finish, I'm afraid.

[Mackus]

I do not see this Yankees juggernaut that others are worried about. Certainly the upside is there if things go really well for them, any team that's trying has 100-win upside in an ideal scenario, but I think they're mean expectation should be 3rd or 4th place. They aren't clearly better than the Blue Jays and Rays, IMO.

[NewMarketSean]

I think this team is going to win around 90 games. You simply cannot remove Bautista from the BP for the entire year, have Bradish miss who knows how many starts, and expect to cruise to 101 wins again.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I do not see this Yankees juggernaut that others are worried about. Certainly the upside is there if things go really well for them, any team that's trying has 100-win upside in an ideal scenario, but I think they're mean expectation should be 3rd or 4th place. They aren't clearly better than the Blue Jays and Rays, IMO.

Totally agree.  Things could break right for NY, but right now I have them 4th.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Some of you guys should be oddsmakers.....you might not last long....lol

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think this team is going to win around 90 games. You simply cannot remove Bautista from the BP for the entire year, have Bradish miss who knows how many starts, and expect to cruise to 101 wins again.

Not a single Os fan would take the over if you put the o/u at 100 wins and told them to bet on it. An obvious statement to say we cant expect them to cruise to 101. I want to win the division and get a bye again but for me the goal is just to make the playoffs. Whatever that takes is the only win total that matters to me. Whether its 85 wins or 91.

[jamesdean]

I don't see them winning 100 games again but 90-95 is certainly within their talent level. 

[NewMarketSean]

Not a single Os fan would take the over if you put the o/u at 100 wins and told them to bet on it. An obvious statement to say we cant expect them to cruise to 101. I want to win the division and get a bye again but for me the goal is just to make the playoffs. Whatever that takes is the only win total that matters to me. Whether its 85 wins or 91.

 

Sure. 

 

Getting the bye may hurt more than it helps. 3/4 of the bye teams from last year lost in first round. Two WC teams advanced to WS. MLB has expanded the playoffs to the point where the regular season is largely irrelevant. It's become NBA-esque. So I agree with you. Just get in the postseason and then see what happens.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

For what its worth I also will probably predict around 90 wins. 88-92 range. There will obviously be more than 2 teams that win more than 90 games but Im not sure who you should be very confident in doing that besides Atl and LA.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Sure. 

 

Getting the bye may hurt more than it helps. 3/4 of the bye teams from last year lost in first round. Two WC teams advanced to WS. MLB has expanded the playoffs to the point where the regular season is largely irrelevant. It's become NBA-esque. So I agree with you. Just get in the postseason and then see what happens.

 

And yet the Astros won the 2022 WS with the bye while sweeping the ALDS that year. The sample is way too small to declare anything yet and bye guarantees your ace against the other team's #3 or #4 starter in Game 1 which is a legit advantage that teams should be able to take advantage of more often than not in a large enough sample.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You are a round further automatically vs playing a best of 3 series to get there. You take the bye everytime. And yes, being able to throw your #1 twice in a 5 game series if necessary is huge.

[makoman]

What are the odds of winning a three game series against another good team? Not 100%. Not 90%. Doubt it’s 70%. I take the bye every time.

[Mackus]

Anyone who would rather play in the Wild Card round than have a bye has unbelievably unrealistic evaluations of what the odds of advancing through that round are even if you are a heavy favorite.  A 30% chance (to be very conservative) of losing far outweighs the disadvantage of being the 2nd round team that rested against the winner of that Wild Card round coming in fresh and, theoretically, hot.  I believe those disadvantages do exist, but their impact are miniscule compared to a significant chance of having never even gotten there.

[Dutch]

I've seen win estimates as low as 84 and 86 which is ridiculous. I do think they'll win maybe 5-6 fewer games this year even though they'll be a more talented team than last year's edition. This is partially because they probably won't match their league-leading average w/RISP and because NY is so much improved.

 

MFY have bought themselves another first place finish, I'm afraid.

The MFY are on old team waiting for injuries to strike Mike. 

[mikezpen]

NO WAY I'd want the O's in a First Round, best-of-three deal. Too much can happen and the superior team can be eliminated on a fluke.

 

I know it went badly last year, but I'll take my chances in a 5-game series over a 3, any time! Any place! The longer things go, the better chance that superiority will show itself.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

There are 2 big problems with the WC series.

 

1. 3 Games is too short. Anything can happen is even more likely in such a short series.

2. Its hard to align your rotation. Sure the O's got to do that last year and it didn't work out. But that doesn't make it unimportant. 

 

Give me the week off for sure...I think....lol

[BaltBird 24]

Anything can happen once you're in.

I'll take any chance we get at the dance and see what happens. I don't care if it's the WC or the bye.

[NewMarketSean]

Give me the bye again too.

But 3/4 of the last WS teams have been wild cards.

Playing that first series isn’t a death sentence and could be the spark needed to make a run.

IMO