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BSL: 2024 Orioles Bounceback and Regression Candidates


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#1 BSLLukeRollfinke

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Posted 19 February 2024 - 12:58 PM

BSL: 2024 Orioles Bounceback and Regression Candidates

https://baltimorespo...ion-candidates/


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#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2024 - 01:03 PM

I'm pretty surprised Hays is still an Oriole, but I'm not really expecting regression. 

As far as his 2nd half...  it was really about his disgusting July (.448 OPS, 74 ab's).
He bounced back in August (.858 OPS, 81 ab's). September was below average (.695 OPS, 90 ab's), but not a big deal. 


Re: Bradish... know that 3rd party evaluators weren't in complete love with him, but the O's were. They were on him having ace ability pretty early.  If he's able to get back on the mound, I expect him to again be very good. Besides the impact to the team as a whole, if he's not available this year...  one of the disappointments would be missing the opportunity to see how he would follow up last year.



#3 mikezpen

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 10:48 AM

Mateo hit lefties at .274 clip last yr. While career stats aren't good, someone w/his elite speed and defensive skills w/b valuable if he can hold that average. Possible platooner in CF? 



#4 Mackus

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 10:56 AM

Mateo hit lefties at .274 clip last yr. While career stats aren't good, someone w/his elite speed and defensive skills w/b valuable if he can hold that average. Possible platooner in CF? 

 

He had a 1053 OPS against LHP in April, when he was killing it.  After April, it was back down to 637, similar to his career 667 against LHP.  That's still better than his numbers against RHP, but I wouldn't consider platooning him with Ced (697 career, 708 '23).  Would give Mateo an occasional play in CF if the glove is up for it, but not as often as a straight platoon.



#5 mikezpen

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 11:12 AM

Mullins has batted .209 and .233 against LH over last 2 years after his big 2021 season. Is this a permanent issue w/him? Maybe, maybe not.Maybe Mateo's .274 against lefties was a fluke.

 

But some platooning mite be useful, here. Worth considering.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 11:49 AM

Mullins has batted .209 and .233 against LH over last 2 years after his big 2021 season. Is this a permanent issue w/him? Maybe, maybe not.Maybe Mateo's .274 against lefties was a fluke.

But some platooning mite be useful, here. Worth considering.

Why are you citing batting average instead of a more meaningful stat?

Mullins bottomed out against LHP in 2022, but was fine last year. I think he'll hit better than Mateo against lefties in 2024, so wouldn't enter the season expecting to platoon.

#7 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 12:05 PM

I'm pretty surprised Hays is still an Oriole, but I'm not really expecting regression.
As far as his 2nd half... it was really about his disgusting July (.448 OPS, 74 ab's).
He bounced back in August (.858 OPS, 81 ab's). September was below average (.695 OPS, 90 ab's), but not a big deal.


Re: Bradish... know that 3rd party evaluators weren't in complete love with him, but the O's were. They were on him having ace ability pretty early. If he's able to get back on the mound, I expect him to again be very good. Besides the impact to the team as a whole, if he's not available this year... one of the disappointments would be missing the opportunity to see how he would follow up last year.

RE: Bradish - mixed bag on that front. Eno Sarris from The Athletic and his Plus+ metric has always loved Bradish.

#8 NewMarketSean

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 01:18 PM

Regression: O'Hearn, Cano

 

Bounceback: Mullins.

 

I think Henderson goes nuclear this year and everyone else will largely remain within their career norms.


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#9 Mackus

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 01:52 PM

Lots of big predictions for Gunnar, so much so that I think Adley may actually be under the radar as much as a superstar can be. I'll throw out a prediction of him as the guy who wins MVP this year (league, not just team).

#10 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 01:58 PM

Adley is elite in everything except exit velocity, barrel pct, and hard hit pct. That really concerns me. He's been below average in all three his first two seasons.
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#11 Ravens2006

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 02:01 PM

There's a different level perceived I think when you're 20 or 21 and already a pretty dominant major league player. That's what Gunnar was. Adley is already 26, which sure isn't "old", but the younger phenom gets the "sky is the limit" hype more.

Regarless of how old young Adley is, I'd be thrilled if he wins MVP!

#12 NewMarketSean

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:19 PM

Adley is going to be what he is and I am perfectly fine with that.

 

Maybe we should just stop overhyping our catching prospects.


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#13 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:23 PM

Adley is going to be what he is and I am perfectly fine with that.

Maybe we should just stop overhyping our catching prospects.

Yeah and whats that?? Whats he gonna be?

#14 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:24 PM

I wouldn't say a 4-5 WAR catcher is an overhype.
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#15 NewMarketSean

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:25 PM

Yeah and whats that?? Whats he gonna be?

 

What he was in 2024. 

 

.280/20/.800 guy.

 

Great OBP. Probably an All Star a few more times. 


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#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:26 PM


Lots of big predictions for Gunnar, so much so that I think Adley may actually be under the radar as much as a superstar can be. I'll throw out a prediction of him as the guy who wins MVP this year (league, not just team).

I was telling Ricker that Im gonna put in an Adley to win MVP bet this year. Just waiting for books to offer some preseason promos to boost up his odds. I could get there on Gunnar too. Depending on odds. As a southern boy I wont be surprised if he starts most reg seasons cool like laat year. May jump in on him in May or June depending on his odds.

#17 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:47 PM

Adley absolutely has 25+ homer power but the wall hurts him some. Hes a better hitter RH than LH. Anyway, hes 30% better than the league offensively through his first 1150 PAs. I'll admit that I dont see a ton of offensive potential left but there is undoubtedly some for a guy with so few MLB PAs. A tick up in the xbhs is most the likely uptick and that probably makes him a 6+ WAR player. Only 3 AL players got to 6 fWAar last year.


Btw he was 27th in fWAR in MLB in less than a full season in '22. He was 23rd last year. This includes pitchers too. In his first two years mind you. How in the hell has he been overhyped in any way. What exactly was your totally unrealistic expectations for his first 2 years if thats overhype.

#18 mikezpen

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 03:59 PM

Why are you citing batting average instead of a more meaningful stat?

Mullins bottomed out against LHP in 2022, but was fine last year. I think he'll hit better than Mateo against lefties in 2024, so wouldn't enter the season expecting to platoon.

.233 is not fine. And .209 is even less fine. Now while I'm not in on all of the more meaningful stats people toss around these days, I'll take .274 over.233 any day of the week and twice on Sundays, particularly w/MOB and 2 outs. That .274 seems a lot more meaningful.

 

I think Mateo s/b kept if at all possible and given some CF reps and ABs-particularly against LH's. If Mullins continues to struggle and Mateo hits in a platoon role, that role s/increase.



#19 makoman

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 04:15 PM

.233 is not fine. And .209 is even less fine. Now while I'm not in on all of the more meaningful stats people toss around these days, I'll take .274 over.233 any day of the week and twice on Sundays, particularly w/MOB and 2 outs. That .274 seems a lot more meaningful.

 

I think Mateo s/b kept if at all possible and given some CF reps and ABs-particularly against LH's. If Mullins continues to struggle and Mateo hits in a platoon role, that role s/increase.

Gunnar and McKenna had virtually the same BA. That's why people look at more than BA. OPS is very accessible and tells us a whole lot more.

 

The problem with Mateo is that he was a completely different person after April. .274, with a lot of that being propped up by April, doesn't matter if he can't repeat it, and the rest of his year makes it questionable whether he can. I am fine having him as the backup CF/SS for now (apparently he worked at CF a ton this offseason), and sure if he produces you gradually give him more time. But if he hits like he did after April he's not going to have a MLB job very long.



#20 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 04:26 PM

If Jorge really put in work at 2b and CF in the offseason and can play both well enough thats big. Really secures his spot on the team. Im assuming he can play 3b in a pinch as well. Really need to see if we can find an Urias trade that makes sense.




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