177 replies to this topic

[russsnyder]

...and we're back.

In Patrick Corbin's last 9 starts (May-June), he's been a QS or borderline QS is 7 of them. 5-6 IP and 3 ER or less. He got Oriole'd by the Mets and the Twins, but other than that he's been ok....and he's basically been an innings eater even when he's terrible.

My goal is not to have Patrick Corbin. If you can find some value in Patrick Corbin when you need some reasonable innings (and we've seen external guys ramp up in Baltimore...+better defense....+bigger LF) then do something with that.

Like I said earlier, my goal would actually be to get Shane McClanahan. Use Corbin to do that. Again, Washington has to want to move anything they can with Corbin. He's clearly underwater as a contract. The Orioles could target Hunter Harvey in the deal and he's under control for next year. He's been really good against everyone but Mountcastle and he wouldn't have to face him anymore here. The Nationals have a bunch of OF Prospects in their top 10-12, more than they can advance in the next couple years.

There's some combination of players that probably works.

BAL gets Corbin (+cash), Harvey, McClanahan
TB gets DC/OF, DC, BAL, BAL (whoever these guys are will likely be in their top 10 in 18 months, great)
DC gets Norby, Baker, whatever

I want to gamble on McClanahan. He was one of the best pitchers in MLB, he's 27, LHed and an Oriole fan. His agent isn't Boras so when we talk about finding quality players to invest money in, you buy low (acceptable risk) not chase success with future disappointment. Shane isn't pitching this year (maybe he gets back on the mound late) so if you can use Patrick Corbin to help get him and he finds something in Baltimore, great. If he implodes, you leveraged the money, go do something else and you still have Shane for next year.

Hunter Harvey is a good BP target for the Orioles.

I have no idea why Corbin would be targeted for anything by the Orioles. Nice job of trying to polish the turd that Corbin has become. He'll more likely be a spring training invitee for someone next year than part of any blockbuster deal. I second Pedro's motion.

Why target an injured pitcher (McClanahan) when they have already lost Bradish for this year and quite possibly next year as well? Besides, I doubt that Tampa wants to move a guy that they extended after he was injured. They'd likely have to be overwhelmed and it wouldn't be a good trade for the Orioles.

[NewMarketSean]

If Texas is 8.5 GB for the division, 6.5 GB of the Wild Card. They're a dead team walking, they may not realize it yet but they have guys we can target. Their rotation is solid top to bottom...they'll part with at least two of their guys by the deadline.

[BobPhelan]

Why target an injured pitcher (McClanahan) when they have already lost Bradish for this year and quite possibly next year as well? Besides, I doubt that Tampa wants to move a guy that they extended after he was injured. They'd likely have to be overwhelmed and it wouldn't be a good trade for the Orioles.

I’ll ask Dude the question he asks everyone else that comes up with trade ideas, what makes you think he’s available?

Why trade for anyone when guys like Madison Baumgardner and Jonathan Schoop are available for free?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I’ll ask Dude the question he asks everyone else that comes up with trade ideas, what makes you think he’s available?

Why trade for anyone when guys like Madison Baumgardner and Jonathan Schoop are available for free?

To be fair, Schoop does have a .787 OPS in the Mexican League and Im sure Bumgarner is dominating some over 30 mens league somewhere.

[Mackus]

I like the Montgomery idea if Arizona decides they want out.  I'd expect him to pick up his 2025 option rather than test the market again, and that'll make the cost to acquire pretty low.  Then go spend the bullets on RP.

 

I don't expect them to pursue him.  That opinion based on an assumption that there was something they didn't like about Montgomery to not pursue him at all last season as his price plummeted.  Maybe as simple as the heavy 2023 workload, or maybe more advanced, but they were obviously scared off and not like anything he's done this year would make them rethink that opinion.  I, on the other hand, wasn't scared even if I should've been and still am not.  There are probably other higher-end options I'd pursue first, but I think Montgomery would be a solid addition to help fix our rotation.  He sort of fills both needs of a reliable middle-rotation guy to help us get the division title and also has the upside to join Burnes and Rodriguez as weapons for a short series.

[mikezpen]

Burnes, at minimum, makes them contenders and possibly champions. He also gives them an extra year to contend while their young pitchers develop down on the farm. If they develop quickly enough, you could see some of those pitchers now in A ball helping Baltimore toward the end of next year.

Milwaukee w/make out better in the long run. Ortiz is doing great. But that's fine. Always read that it's better when both teams benefit from a trade.

Still, the loss of Bradish and Means to a lessor extent, is tragic. If they'd both pitched this year, I think we w/have won the whole damn thing.

[JeremyStrain]

I like the Montgomery idea if Arizona decides they want out.  I'd expect him to pick up his 2025 option rather than test the market again, and that'll make the cost to acquire pretty low.  Then go spend the bullets on RP.

 

I don't expect them to pursue him.  That opinion based on an assumption that there was something they didn't like about Montgomery to not pursue him at all last season as his price plummeted.  Maybe as simple as the heavy 2023 workload, or maybe more advanced, but they were obviously scared off and not like anything he's done this year would make them rethink that opinion.  I, on the other hand, wasn't scared even if I should've been and still am not.  There are probably other higher-end options I'd pursue first, but I think Montgomery would be a solid addition to help fix our rotation.  He sort of fills both needs of a reliable middle-rotation guy to help us get the division title and also has the upside to join Burnes and Rodriguez as weapons for a short series.

I thought I read something the other day about Montgomery's option already vesting for next year? Maybe I made that up, it all bleeds together.

 

I think with the injuries lingering into next year it makes it more important we sign Burnes. Need that stability. Even with him and if GRod turns another corner, we still only have two legit pieces in a landscape where you need 4-5 PLUS depth.

 

Hindsight they should have signed one of the late signing SP that was sitting out there on the market. Depth looked good at the time, but Means will be completely gone after this one, Wells...who knows if he ever starts again, may just go to the pen, and Bradish is going to miss half of next year now too.

[Mackus]

I thought I read something the other day about Montgomery's option already vesting for next year? Maybe I made that up, it all bleeds together.

 

He needed to reach 10 starts to earn (vest) the option, which he's now done.  It's a $20M player option right now.  It can further increase to $22.5M and then $25M if/when he reaches 18 and 23 starts.

[JeremyStrain]

He needed to reach 10 starts to earn (vest) the option, which he's now done.  It's a $20M player option right now.  It can further increase to $22.5M and then $25M if/when he reaches 18 and 23 starts.

Ahhh gotcha, I skimmed through something about it but didn't grab the details. Thanks.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Montgomery prob still declines the option no? He's been really bad but unless he gets hurt have to think he can still get a 3 or 4 yr deal. Vs if he has another bad year in '25 or gets hurt he loses out on a lot of money for '26 and beyond.

[Mackus]

Montgomery prob still declines the option no? He's been really bad but unless he gets hurt have to think he can still get a 3 or 4 yr deal. Vs if he has another bad year in '25 or gets hurt he loses out on a lot of money for '26 and beyond.

If his second half matches his first half maybe he'll pick it up. If he bounces back and has a typical performance I think it's an easy decline.

[BaltBird 24]

Gotta think even if he declines, he'll be able to match what the option is if he can't find a longer term deal. Probably worth the risk to opt out and try the market with his new agent.

[mweb08]

Unless there's reason for significant skepticism for a return to form (or at least close to it), I'm very interested in bringing Montgomery in to provide further rotation depth as well as provide the type of upside we witnessed last postseason. 

[Pedro Cerrano]

...and we're back.

In Patrick Corbin's last 9 starts (May-June), he's been a QS or borderline QS is 7 of them. 5-6 IP and 3 ER or less. He got Oriole'd by the Mets and the Twins, but other than that he's been ok....and he's basically been an innings eater even when he's terrible.

My goal is not to have Patrick Corbin. If you can find some value in Patrick Corbin when you need some reasonable innings (and we've seen external guys ramp up in Baltimore...+better defense....+bigger LF) then do something with that.

Like I said earlier, my goal would actually be to get Shane McClanahan. Use Corbin to do that. Again, Washington has to want to move anything they can with Corbin. He's clearly underwater as a contract. The Orioles could target Hunter Harvey in the deal and he's under control for next year. He's been really good against everyone but Mountcastle and he wouldn't have to face him anymore here. The Nationals have a bunch of OF Prospects in their top 10-12, more than they can advance in the next couple years.

There's some combination of players that probably works.

BAL gets Corbin (+cash), Harvey, McClanahan
TB gets DC/OF, DC, BAL, BAL (whoever these guys are will likely be in their top 10 in 18 months, great)
DC gets Norby, Baker, whatever

I want to gamble on McClanahan. He was one of the best pitchers in MLB, he's 27, LHed and an Oriole fan. His agent isn't Boras so when we talk about finding quality players to invest money in, you buy low (acceptable risk) not chase success with future disappointment. Shane isn't pitching this year (maybe he gets back on the mound late) so if you can use Patrick Corbin to help get him and he finds something in Baltimore, great. If he implodes, you leveraged the money, go do something else and you still have Shane for next year.

We’re still on this Corbin thing?

[jamesdean]

I think Montgomery will have a much better 2nd half if he can stay healthy.  His last start was solid.  Both him and Snell had a very limited amount of time to get ready for the season and it affected them significantly.  

[dude]

We’re still on this Corbin thing?

 

Only when you have needs and he's a chip to use to accomplish something.

[dude]

I’ll ask Dude the question he asks everyone else that comes up with trade ideas, what makes you think he’s available?

 

Short answer: Things like this have been commonly nested in their approach.

 

Longer answer: Do you need the longer answer?

[Slidemaster]

Short answer: Things like this have been commonly nested in their approach.

Longer answer: Do you need the longer answer?

None of this is any answer. It's a cryptic way of not answering.