11 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Orioles position preview: Bullpen has upside but questions persist

https://www.baltimor...review-bullpen/

[mikezpen]

Disagree. 

 

I posted the following elsewhere:

 

The bullpen seems questionable.

 

Starting with Kimbrel: he had 23 saves last yr. but also blew  5.His 3.26 ERA wasn't earth-shaking. At age 35/36, will he be better this season?

 

Hall's gone, Cano declined after his big start w/an ERA of 5.79 after August,Tate's coming off arm trouble, and Perez, though talented, is erratic. These are the guys who will come in during the games' crucial stages.

 

I wish they'd get a couple more quality arms back there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Wish there was at least a guy I think has a chance to be dominant. Not too concerned at the moment though. I do expect Wells to be a reliable late inning arm so that helps. BPs really can be volitile. So we will just have to see how things shake out.


Also seeing a lot of hype around Tate and his potential return. Im a big Ill believe it when I see it in regards to Tate but if he can be like he was in '22 another big help.

[Mackus]

Bullpen is definitely the weakest part of the team. Could still be completely fine, maybe even really good, but I'm with others that would've liked to see an even better option than Kimbrel. Hader seemed like a perfect target. Feels awfully greedy now, but thats the one other move that I really wanted. More than any other bats.

If the rotation is healthy, I'm pretty intrigued by the possibility of McDermott, Johnson and Povich helping in the pen by midseason.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hader was never gonna happen so I think Kimbrel was our 2nd best option in FA. I really do. Just because of the experience closing. I wanted that. And his stuff is still really good too. So it wouldnt be shocking if he can put up a 2.25-2.50 ERA with good peripherals

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Not sure what to think about Cano. Got the stuff but not sure I trust him much.

 

Kimbrel has the experience which is great. Does he have anything left in his tank. I could see him gel with the O's or fall on his face.

 

I think the key is going to be how Wells does in the pen. He could be the glue that holds it all together.

[mikezpen]

I think Elias is scanning the trade options come Deadline-maybe before.

[dude]

Not sure why this topic is so heavily in the ST thread, but...

 

...I don't really get the angst about the bullpen.  Bullpens can be volatile and every time you lose a lead late, everyone will be in crisis, but that's true for all 30 teams.

 

Kimbrel didn't have challenges at Closer last year.  The Phils closer (Alvarado) got hurt, Kimbrel saved games, Alvardo came back and got the save role back.  Kimbrel still has plus statcast stuff.  He gives up some hard-hit, but we'll see if they can help that.  Park and defense certainly have an opportunity to help anyone, including Kimbrel.  He will be hyper-motivated to close games out.  All-Time lists matter.  He's working his way to the top of MLB history.  he won't get to the summit, but he'll see it from where he lands in a couple of years.  Two good years and he's in 3rd All-Time.

 

Last year we had significant questions about the durability (innings pitched) of the starters and lots of questions in the Bullpen.  A bullpen comprised of players that were already here ('not good enough') and waiver claims combined with (according to some) a terrible bullpen Manager somehow managed to finish 5th best in MLB.

 

We didn't know Cano or Coulombe at this point last year.  Wells was a starter.  Tate was injured.  We started with givens and he was terrible.  Questions for Bullpens never really get answered (volatility) but we have fewer questions today than we had last year.  Just because you throw money at 2023 performance doesn't mean you get better performance in 2024.

 

- More innings out of the starters should allow for less and more targeted bullpen use, that's good.

- Kimbrel isn't Bautista, but nobody is (based on 2023 performance) so I'm not sure what anyone wants. Kimbrel is an excellent bridge back to a fully healthy Bautista.

- Wells, Cano, Tate, Baumann, Webb are all capable RHed options.

- Coulombe, Perez are capable LHed options.

We'll have guys like Akin, Zimmermann, Irvin, Baker, Vespi, Heasley, plus others to consider for depth.

We have some developing starters at AAA that could certainly debut in bullpen roles if needed.

 

I'll repeat something I've said previously....not sure who you want.  There aren't any 0.xx ERA or 1.XX ERA pitchers out there.  Maybe there's a 2.XX ERA pitcher, but Cano is a 2.XX ERA pitcher and he's not good enough.  Everyone else is essentially a 3.XX ERA pitcher.  Multiple teams are throwing money at mediocre options to build a bullpen that's probably not as good as our waiver-ish bullpen.  Chasing last years numbers isn't better than the guys you have just because you didn't watch that guy fail first hand last year.

 

If the Bullpen struggles (let's hope not) there's depth.  They've routinely made some chicken salad out of other chicken parts in recent years.  You have many more opportunities (internal and external) to add guys as the season emerges.

 

Someday soon we'll find out the reality of some of these option situations because the Rules of MLB aren't flexible here.

 

Looking forward to our starters getting it done.

Excited to watch Kimbrel move up the list.

Love Tyler Wells as a team-guy in any role and he could vulture 10+ wins this year.

Waiting to see if Tate is pumping high-90s.

We'll see who emerges in the pen for the role vacated by DL Hall.

 

Maybe we'll wind up with a hole, but we don't have one as we enter ST.  Let's Go.

[Mackus]

Yes, it feels plausible if not likely that we'll be able to use pieces in house to have a good bullpen. Possibly, though not likely IMO, a great one. Some downside for average or worse.

But you can't honestly say you don't understand why people want to improve the pen. It's very obvious as to why.

[dude]

But you can't honestly say you don't understand why people want to improve the pen. It's very obvious as to why.

 

Right.  Everyone wants to be better.  Saying you want to be better and actually having any clue on how to actually get better are 2 different things.  One is rooted in some semblance of reality, the other is wishing on a star.

 

Top 8-9-10 guys in the Orioles bullpen would be claimed. So you aren't adding depth by adding some perception of 'better', it's only the delta between the new guy and the old one because you lose the old one.  

 

Mike Baumann is probably our 4th RHer behind Cano, Wells and Tate (if he's healthy).  He'll be a multi-inning guy.  Appeared in 60 games last year with a 3.76 ERA.  Fewer H than IP...walked too many guys (33) but was pretty good.  5 years of control left.  Costs ML minimum the next 2 years.  He gave up 27 ER on the season but scuffled a little in May (12) and August (6)....so he gave up 9 total ER the other 4 months.

 

Do we really want to pay 5-10M for a RHRP that might be a little better than Baumann?  Heck, Baumann could easily be better.  He could be worse too, but anyone you add could be worse. 

 

Everyone loves Stephenson but he's a guy that was waived multiple times and all of his new value is generated from 30+ quality innings this year.  Good for him and if we needed a RP great, but I'll take Baumann over him right now, all things considered.

 

You can walk through each guy with what he have.  If we needed a guy, I'd argue for the player (type) we need, but we don't actually have a need in the bullpen, so the argument has to be about who makes you better for anything that's worth paying for.  We aren't adding Closers to play in generic roles.  That could wind up terrible in terms of how the bullpen gels.

[Mackus]

Do we really want to pay 5-10M for a RHRP that might be a little better than Baumann?  Heck, Baumann could easily be better.  He could be worse too, but anyone you add could be worse. 

 

I want to pay $16M for a RP who likely will be much better than Baumann, as one example. That's probably the only major upgrade I see as being available between now and the early part of the season.  I'm ok with standing pat, but if I were in charge I'd be looking at the bullpen as an obvious area for improvement. Actually I'd have signed Hader who was an absolutely perfect fit, and then I probably wouldn't feel that we need another upgrade at this point, since I have a lot more confidence in Hader than Kimbrel.

 

I know that only you are allowed to propose how players will fit together as people, but I'm gonna say that Jansen and Kimbrel can coexist just fine.  If they give you indication that they can't, then I'd reconsider, but I'm not just going to eschew an upgrade out of fear they are going to pout.  Kimbrel signed to be a setup man last offseason, not a closer, so he isn't singularly focused.  Winning rings also enhances their resume for HOF and pouting that leads to bad performance besmirches it.  They can coexist this season and if both pitch well get opportunities to close next year.  They won't get any opportunity if they pitch poorly, so plenty of motivation to pitch well even if it means they are splitting the role or one of them is in a setup role.

[dude]

I know that only you are allowed to propose how players will fit together as people, but I'm gonna say that Jansen and Kimbrel can coexist just fine.  If they give you indication that they can't, then I'd reconsider, but I'm not just going to eschew an upgrade out of fear they are going to pout.  

 

I'm sitting dead in the middle of the most reasonable position. 

 

It's possible it doesn't matter....like maybe they are friends and Kimbrel tells Elias that Jansen wants to come here and [whatever]....but that seems like the least likely reality.  2 guys, late in their careers within a couple saves of each other on the All-Time list, are both going to be looking to move up. 

 

It doesn't even matter if they can sit in a room and tell you everything is ok.  It's the inner circles around each one.  Their friends, wife, kids, agent, parents, everyone that's important to them, that wants to see them do great things, that has a voice in their life.  You (here) and others in other discussions (like the IF and OF discussions) want to pretend those things don't exist.  As if each player (and the inner circle around them) doesn't have individual and personal goals for themselves and [whatever role] for the Orioles is a higher priority for them.