I'd be looking at a 9-year deal for him. I think that might be achievable. 7-year deal feels impossible to me for any numbers that would make sense for the Orioles. $30M per for each of the FA years so something like 9/$190M total. I think its still unlikely he says yes, but that's probably the most I'd go until we get more confirmation that the new ownership will spend closer to the luxury tax threshold.
If he were a free agent this past offseason, but somehow 4 years older (i.e. lets assume he has a steady career the next few seasons, no MVP-explosion but no regression), I think he'd have gotten something like 8 years for $30-35M a year. As a FA he's going to be able to get huge dollars every year through his Age 37 season or longer. So giving him a contract that only pays him less than market rates for the earlier seasons of his free agency makes zero sense for him. Sure, there is some risk that his career flatlines and he ends up with less, but I don't think its risk enough to only sign away the first 3 of those years for something like $25M per.
I'd be looking at a 9-year deal for him. I think that might be achievable. 7-year deal feels impossible to me for any numbers that would make sense for the Orioles.
If he were a free agent this past offseason, but somehow 4 years older (i.e. lets assume he has a steady career the next few seasons, no MVP-explosion but no regression), I think he'd have gotten something like 8 years for $30-35M a year. As a FA he's going to be able to get huge dollars every year through his Age 37 season or longer. So giving him a contract that only pays him less than market rates for the earlier seasons of his free agency makes zero sense for him. Sure, there is some risk that his career flatlines and he ends up with less, but I don't think its risk enough to only sign away the first 3 of those years for something like $25M per.