51 replies to this topic

[dude]

This is a version of the Baseline roster thread, but intended more - at this point - for discussion.

 

If we don't know something we don't know yet...like someone is missing the season or hurt in a way that changes this, ok, but for everything we know right now, the opening day roster will be a function of MLB Rules and MLB contracts.  If the Orioles are using some of these contracts to get a guy through waivers to AAA for depth, ok, but AAA is pretty full too.

 

Lineup

CF Mullins

C  Rutschman 

3B Henderson 

1B Mountcastle 

RF Santander 

LF Hays 

DH O'Hearn 

2B Westburg

SS Mateo 

 

Bench

C  McCann 

IF Urias 

OF Hilliard 

OF McKenna 

 

Starters

1. Burnes 

2. Means

3. GRod

4. Bradish

5. Kremer

 

Bullpen

RH  Kimbrel

RH  Cano 

RH  Baumann 

RH  Tate 

RH  TWells 

LH  Irvin

LH  Coulombe 

LH  Perez 

 

Bullpen here doesn't include Akin, Zimmerrmann, Davidson, Webb, Baker, Heasley.  Not clear on the option status of all of them, varies depending on the source. You can probably pass a guy like Zimmermann through waivers, but not some of them.

 

A guy like Hilliard would have a pretty limited role in terms of expected ABs.  He's a LHed bat off the bench could obviously see some corner OF, 1B, DH, but it's not some full-platoon role of something like that.  Replacing him with Cowser or Kjerstad wouldn't seem to change that.  I can't see a Hays/Cowser platoon or something like that.  That would seem to push all of the younger options to AAA.

 

People talk about a "RHed bat"....instead of who?  Mckenna? We already are pretty heavy in terms of RHed bats, including the guys that hope to break into the lineup (Mayo, Norby).  Mateo and Urias don't have options (not that it would even be a thing to do it).  Guys like Mountcastle and O'Hearn do have options....would they really send them down for OD?

 

Barring injury, the rotation seems pretty set.  The bullpen is too.  "add another RP" kicks someone out but I don't know who gives you better cost/performance risk over a guy like Baumann.

 

That pushes all of the prospects to AAA.

 

1B/3B Mayo

2B Norby

SS Holliday

CF Cowser

RF Kjerstad

LF Stowers

 

Not to turn this into another Holliday thread (but it certainly applies) but the other 5 guys there all have more and better AAA performance than Jackson heading into the season.  

 

All of them should be getting everyday ABs at AAA versus some limited bench role (Hilliard) in Baltimore.

 

Personally, I'm ok going into the season like that.  My preference is we open up opportunity for guys like Kjerstad (vs Santander) and Mayo (versus Mountcastle) to compete for RoY this year. 

 

Everyone doesn't fit.

[BaltBird 24]

I know he's never had a MLB AB, but I'd rather Norby at 2B, Gunnar at SS, Westburg at 3B. Or Urias at 3B, Gunnar at SS, Westburg at 2B.

Mateo should be strictly a bench player who's speed we utilize late in games.

[mdrunning]

A lot depends on who makes the team out of spring training. Should Holliday start the season in AAA, then Mateo needs to be here since there really is no other shortsop on the roster. If both Holliday and Mayo are in the minors at the outset, then Urias and Mateo both should be on the roster. That way there's some depth at both short and second to start the season.

[RichardZ]

I think it’s between Webb and Baumann for that last bullpen spot. Both are out of options. If Tate looks rusty in ST I could see him starting the year in Norfolk with both Webb and Baumann making it.

Can’t argue with the position player breakdown but I do think there’s a chance that Holliday makes the team, they keep both Urias and Mateo, and choose between Hilliard or McKenna.

O’Hearn is blocking Kjerstad. They aren’t trading Santander. Maybe they start the year with O’Hearn or maybe they move him before ST.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't see any way that both Cowser and Kjerstad start the season in AAA.

[dude]

O’Hearn is blocking Kjerstad. They aren’t trading Santander. Maybe they start the year with O’Hearn or maybe they move him before ST.

 

For me, O'Hearn is holding Basallo's spot.  I'd slow play him a little (AA-'24, AAA-'25) so O'Hearn works well as a bridge in a platoon with McCann this year and next.

 

Mad respect for AS at a bunch of levels, but it's always choices.

[dude]

I don't see any way that both Cowser and Kjerstad start the season in AAA.

 

They both need to play every day, wherever it is.  The roster (without changes) says it won't be Baltimore.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

They both need to play every day, wherever it is.  The roster (without changes) says it won't be Baltimore.

No way I see Hilliard and McKenna both on the OD roster. 

[SonicAttack]

No way I see Hilliard and McKenna both on the OD roster. 

Yeah, I would much rather have Cowser & Kjerstad.  We'll see how ST goes, if they rake in ST, it will be hard to send them to AAA.  

[Mackus]

For me, O'Hearn is holding Basallo's spot. I'd slow play him a little (AA-'24, AAA-'25) so O'Hearn works well as a bridge in a platoon with McCann this year and next.

Mad respect for AS at a bunch of levels, but it's always choices.

O'Hearn and McCann are both FA at end of the year. They still work as bridges to Basallo, but that's for 2025, not 2026. McCann I could imagine signing a one year extension, but O'Hearn wouldn't.

[dude]

No way I see Hilliard and McKenna both on the OD roster. 

 

OK, but they both signed Major League contracts.  They're basically ML minimum so it doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things, but you are literally throwing away 1M.  Maybe the new approach is to do that and then pass them through waivers and pay them to be AAA depth.  The Orioles already did that with Tucker Davidson and the Reds recently did it with a catching option (literally paying them Major League money to stash them at AAA).

 

The bigger issue, beyond the modest money, is playing time.  Neither McKenna or Hilliard have significant roles.  There's zero point to adding a quality prospect into a bench position.

[dude]

O'Hearn and McCann are both FA at end of the year. They still work as bridges to Basallo, but that's for 2025, not 2026. McCann I could imagine signing a one year extension, but O'Hearn wouldn't.

 

O'Hearn is ARB 2 this year (4.170), so they can keep him through arbitration.

 

I'd actually argue for McCann even into the Basallo ERA, but that's me.

[Mackus]

O'Hearn is ARB 2 this year (4.170), so they can keep him through arbitration.

I'd actually argue for McCann even into the Basallo ERA, but that's me.

5.002 for O'Hearn according to BB-ref.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

OK, but they both signed Major League contracts.  They're basically ML minimum so it doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things, but you are literally throwing away 1M.  Maybe the new approach is to do that and then pass them through waivers and pay them to be AAA depth.  The Orioles already did that with Tucker Davidson and the Reds recently did it with a catching option (literally paying them Major League money to stash them at AAA).

 

The bigger issue, beyond the modest money, is playing time.  Neither McKenna or Hilliard have significant roles.  There's zero point to adding a quality prospect into a bench position.

Do you think, today, right now, that both Hilliard and McKenna are on the OD roster. Yes or no?

[dude]

5.002 for O'Hearn according to BB-ref.

 

Not sure, COTs has him at 4.170

[dude]

Do you think, today, right now, that both Hilliard and McKenna are on the OD roster. Yes or no?

 

That's not an answer that makes a difference.  You don't put Cowser or Kjerstad onto the OD roster without a significant role.

 

They could pass Hilliard through waivers and put Stowers on the OD roster or get a LHed IF option to compliment the (all) RHers and it doesn't change the point (or the answer to your question).

 

Cowser and Kjerstad need to play every day.  You either open up roles for [one or both] of them, or they are in AAA.

 

Nothing good comes from the bench role for those guys.  Not development. Not prospect status.  Not value.  Not cost.

[Mackus]

Not sure, COTs has him at 4.170

Important 4 days for him!

Any way to find what he entered 2023 with? Pretty sure he got a full year. He started the year on assignment but was called up April 13th, so that's 14 days on assignment. Was optioned again May 5 but recalled May 9 after an injury, so that's 3 or 4 more days, either way he's shy of 20 so gets credit for a full year.

[BaltBird 24]

O'Hearn and McCann are easily replaceable talent. I'm not losing sleep over having or not having on the roster, especially McCann. He's a fine back up C, but there are a lot of fine back up C's. I'll be happy if O'Hearn replicates his 2023 season, but could just as easily see him being replaced by June/July.

[dude]

It's a little crazy the difference in public information.  I don't remember an Orioles roster where there were this many service questions.  Roch has said Irvin doesn't have an option, I've seen both him and Jake Rill (who you'd think bother were tied to the team at some level) provide different answers from each other which were different than COTs.

 

I've found any number of things wrong with COTs over the years, but this season seems like the same number as the last 20 years.

[dude]

O'Hearn and McCann are easily replaceable talent. I'm not losing sleep over having or not having on the roster, especially McCann. He's a fine back up C, but there are a lot of fine back up C's. I'll be happy if O'Hearn replicates his 2023 season, but could just as easily see him being replaced by June/July.

 

I think this will be the issue in the coming years.  You have to figure some things out beyond the stat line.  

 

I get that people dismiss or mock it, but it's true in every aspect of life and Baseball isn't exempt.  It's the most important thing to getting the Talent to work well.  L, A, C >>> T

 

Everyone will make choices.  Those choices have consequences.  We see it manifest itself in different ways - both good and bad - over the last 20+ years.