27 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Ringer: Lamar Jackson Spent This Season Making the Teams Who Passed on Him Look Dumb

[hallas]

That EPA stat comparing Ricard's snaps vs no Ricard is wild.  I can't believe he has that much impact on the passing game.

[mdrunning]

He wasn't going anywhere to begin with. That's not dumb, that's just being pragmatic.

[Mackus]

He wasn't going anywhere to begin with. That's not dumb, that's just being pragmatic.

Don't agree. Agree Ravens would've matched any deal they could, but multiple teams could've signed him to a deal the Ravens would have not been capable of matching under the cap. I was very worried that would happen. DeCosta read the market well in that regard.

[mdrunning]

Don't agree. Agree Ravens would've matched any deal they could, but multiple teams could've signed him to a deal the Ravens would have not been capable of matching under the cap. I was very worried that would happen. DeCosta read the market well in that regard.

I think teams were looking at Lamar's previous two injury-plagued years, which may have raised some red flags. Then there was Cleveland not getting a lot of bang for their fully-guaranteed buck when DeShaun Watson returned and was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Russell Wilson seemed to go in the tank after Denver gave up a king's ransom to acquire him, and then--for reasons known only to them--gave him an extension when none seemed warranted. 

 

Unless a team acted out of complete blind faith--with only bad precedents for recent history-- there was little chance of someone else coming in and whisking Lamar away from the Ravens, and as you stated, DeCosta seemed very much aware of that.

[makoman]

Don't agree. Agree Ravens would've matched any deal they could, but multiple teams could've signed him to a deal the Ravens would have not been capable of matching under the cap. I was very worried that would happen. DeCosta read the market well in that regard.

And anyone offering a top 10 pick, with the chance to immediately take his successor (assuming the team liked Richardson or Levis) would have at least made them think about it. Even if they wanted to keep him it was far from certain that they’d be able to have him under contract past this franchise year.

[NewMarketSean]

Lamar also wasn't lighting the world on fire before he got hurt in 2021 and 2022. Solid performance but nothing that would make another team jump at the opportunity to sign a...good not great QB who didn't finish the last two seasons and expects to be paid in line with Watson.

 

So I kind of understand why no other teams wanted him considering the cost, including having to surrender 2 first rounders in order to sign him.

 

He's absolutely exceeded expectations. Good for Lamar and good for the Ravens. So far the contract is paying off nicely for both parties.

[PrimeTime]

That EPA stat comparing Ricard's snaps vs no Ricard is wild.  I can't believe he has that much impact on the passing game.

 

The fact that you don't quite know what Ricard is going to do can certainly put a bit of doubt in the defense's mind. Also, when Ricard is in, he can be used as a de facto 6th offensive line, which improves protection and allows Lamar and the pass catchers more time to make plays. In that vein, Project Pat's impact adds up.

[Mike in STL]

The fact that you don't quite know what Ricard is going to do can certainly put a bit of doubt in the defense's mind. Also, when Ricard is in, he can be used as a de facto 6th offensive line, which improves protection and allows Lamar and the pass catchers more time to make plays. In that vein, Project Pat's impact adds up.

Under Roman, and even to start this year with Monken, Ricard telegraphed the run. Defenses were keying in on it/him. Doesn't seem to be the case this latter part of the season. His name hasn't been called aside from a TD in the MIA game. which is probably a good thing. 

[makoman]

I don’t know much about play calling, but I’d think getting into favorable personnel matchups goes a long way towards being successful. As the article says, if Ricard is used in a versatile way, not just telegraphing the run, that seems like a big deal. You don’t have to pass against nickel and dime so much and you get more protection (as long as he’s not running routes all the time).

[CantonJester]

Don't agree. Agree Ravens would've matched any deal they could, but multiple teams could've signed him to a deal the Ravens would have not been capable of matching under the cap. I was very worried that would happen. DeCosta read the market well in that regard.

 

At that time, DeCosta and the Ravens took a leap of faith that Jackson could deliver a complete season the way he has this year. It paid off. But the fact is the rest of the NFL were gun shy at his asking price considering his injury history. 

[Mackus]

At that time, DeCosta and the Ravens took a leap of faith that Jackson could deliver a complete season the way he has this year. It paid off. But the fact is the rest of the NFL were gun shy at his asking price considering his injury history.

I think those teams made very bad evaluations. But my point is that it wasn't possible for the Ravens to match every possible deal Lamar might get. There were teams with enough cap space to front load the deal so much that the Ravens couldn't match it no matter how much restructuring they did. DeCosta correctly predicted that nobody would go to that length, but it was definitely a gamble. I'd have not taken the risk, but in the end it worked out great for the Ravens. Probably not as good as signing him a year or two earlier would have, though.

[cprenegade]

It's easy to say that now, but the scenario was different last off season.  Lamar Jackson had failed to finish the last two seasons on his contract.  One year the Ravens collapsed and missed the playoffs.  The next year they held on to make it as a wild card and lost to Cincinnati.  

 

And then any team that was going to pay that much money plus draft capital better be in a position to win.  The Ravens have built a solid team around Jackson.  I'm not sure any of the teams with the cap space to sign him could say that.  And then how to do they build around him without top draft picks?  And there was the Cleveland signing of Watson and how well that worked out.  Nobody wanted to be that stupid again. 

 

So the best those teams would have gotten is a QB who excites a lot of people, makes his offense a lot better, but in the end a team that is probably an above average team with one superstar.  Does anyone believe Atlanta or Indy, two teams linked to Lamar, would be SB contenders if they signed him?  I don't.  In the end, the salary and cap hit plus the loss of draft capital was too much for anyone to absorb.   I believed they might put the lesser tag on him because of that.  It was a gamble, but one that EDC knew he could win.  Nobody was going to bite because if they were wrong, they would have set their franchise back at least 5 years.  

[mdrunning]

I think those teams made very bad evaluations. But my point is that it wasn't possible for the Ravens to match every possible deal Lamar might get. There were teams with enough cap space to front load the deal so much that the Ravens couldn't match it no matter how much restructuring they did. DeCosta correctly predicted that nobody would go to that length, but it was definitely a gamble. I'd have not taken the risk, but in the end it worked out great for the Ravens. Probably not as good as signing him a year or two earlier would have, though.

I don't recall who had the most cap space last year, but typically the teams with that type of cap latitude are the ones at the bottom of the standings and need more than just a quarterback. If you're in that position, it might be more propitious to draft one, hope you're right, and build the team around a quarterback on a rookie deal.

[Mackus]

I don't recall who had the most cap space last year, but typically the teams with that type of cap latitude are the ones at the bottom of the standings and need more than just a quarterback. If you're in that position, it might be more propitious to draft one, hope you're right, and build the team around a quarterback on a rookie deal.

LV and Atlanta, if memory serves, were the two that both could and should have done it. Ravens gambled that they'd both screw it up, which they did.

[makoman]

LV and Atlanta, if memory serves, were the two that both could and should have done it. Ravens gambled that they'd both screw it up, which they did.

The Colts had space too. The Jets could have picked Lamar instead of Rodgers. Don't remember the Panthers situation before they traded for #1.

[bmore_ken]

The other teams did the right thing. Any team that wanted him would have had to clear cap space(cutting players) and the Ravens could have simply matched any offer and kept him. DeCosta played that perfectly

[Mackus]

The other teams did the right thing. Any team that wanted him would have had to clear cap space(cutting players) and the Ravens could have simply matched any offer and kept him. DeCosta played that perfectly

You're not following the conversation. There were multiple teams that had enough space to make Lamar a similar offer but front load the cap hit so that the Ravens COULD NOT match. Not that they would decide to not match, but literally could not match for cap reasons no matter how much restructuring they did.

DeCosta got a perfect result. But he definitely took a gamble that no other teams would make Lamar that type of offer. Trusting his intel and prediction paid off, as the few teams in position to take Lamar away decided not to get involved.

I think those other teams did the wrong thing, as they are all worse off now and in the future than they would be wit Lamar, IMO.

[bmore_ken]

You're not following the conversation. There were multiple teams that had enough space to make Lamar a similar offer but front load the cap hit so that the Ravens COULD NOT match. Not that they would decide to not match, but literally could not match for cap reasons no matter how much restructuring they did.

DeCosta got a perfect result. But he definitely took a gamble that no other teams would make Lamar that type of offer. Trusting his intel and prediction paid off, as the few teams in position to take Lamar away decided not to get involved.

I think those other teams did the wrong thing, as they are all worse off now and in the future than they would be wit Lamar, IMO.

Those teams wirh cap space were also mortgaging their future(2 ist rounders). You're correct I haven't followed the whole thread being a newlywed so i don't know the teams involved.  So I don't know if there was a team with a ton of cap space that were only a QB away.  I'll have to review the thread. 

[85Knight]

I was reading a Texans message board after the game and I was amazed at the number of their fans who still think Lamar is just a runner. Lamar is the best dual threat qb we've ever seen and I think it throws people off. If Lamar never crossed the line of scrimmage he'd still be a very efficient passer. If he had to throw the ball 40 times I think he could still lead the Ravens to victory. His ability to pass will always be underrated because he's such a great runner.