8 replies to this topic

[dude]

Dodgers going big with Ohtani and Yamamoto.  Added Glasnow and extended him.  

 

The have a ton of high level performance and while they're shelling out some money, their per year isn't that bad (for their market).  They do get hit on Lux Tax and are close to the top level.

 

They obviously can do whatever they want (and have the resources to do it) but there's an argument to improve the floor of the team with cost/service options,

 

Dodgers still have questions in SP after Yamamoto, Glasnow and Miller and all of those guys carry some different risks.  They are loaded with young pitching, but experienced the volatility of that last year. 

 

Walker Buehler is in there and recovering from surgery. Easy enough to use him this year and as a bridge back to Ohtani (on the mound).  While I expect he'll be good, he'll likely have some innings risks in 2024 (like Means, they don't let him go).

 

My thought is they may want to improve the floor (innings), cost and service with someone like Dean Kremer.  Kremer is a former Dodgers (MM trade) and probably takes the ball 30+ times, 180+ innings with an ERA less than 4.50. 

 

The Orioles can certainly use that floor, but if we want to seek performance, then buying some risk may be the only way to do it. Similar to Glasnow, Buehler may consider an extension today that could be different a year from now (risk/reward for both sides).

 

Discussed Ortiz there before.  Still think he's a great fit there.  LA kid that could play quality defense, they could keep him there forever if they wanted and he has some offensive upside.  That lineup needs him to bat 9th and play quality defense.  Good floor.  Cost and service control for that roster.

 

Another interesting fit is Dylan Beavers.  Another SoCal product and the Dodgers lack any upper level LHed OF prospects, something the Orioles have a lot of.  Dodgers have Heyward signed for 2024, but could be another cost/service floor guy to play LF in 2025 for many years (an opportunity he won't get in Baltimore).

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Not just giving away Orioles prospects.

 

Still think Lux is a good fit in the Frazier role or as part of a trade chip to the Brewers for Burnes.

 

So something like Kremer and Ortiz for Buehler and Lux.  

 

If the Dodgers like Beavers, then the Orioles are getting other stuff.  They have a lot of pitching and the Orioles system is thinner in projectable options.  Maybe buy on a couple younger guys like Payton Martin (RH) and Justin Wrobleski (LH).

 

Kremer, Ortiz, Beavers for Buehler, Lux, Martin, Wrobleski is a good fit for the rosters of both teams.

[dude]

Buehler versus Woodruff.

 

I've been in the Woodruff camp and you could likely sign him thru 2025 and create some extended team option.

 

He's older than Buehler and might cost a little more in the extension and given his age may want more years putting more total there, if you exercise the option.

 

Buehler may be in a slightly different boat.  Maybe a light version of the Glasnow contract that allows him to get back to the market sooner after his age 31 season, but still lock up a larger guarantee.

 

I'd start with something like....

2024 (age 29): 7.5M

2025 (age 30): 17.5M

2026 (age 31): 17.5M

2027 (age 32): 17.5M

10M buyout on a 2/40 team option.

Buehler can opt out after 2026 season.

 

That's a 4/70 guarantee with an opt out after the 3rd year. If exercised, would be 3/42.5 to the Orioles.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Can't imagine the Dodgers giving us Buelher for Kremer and Ortiz. Unless they, behind the scenes, think his surgery and recovery really aren't going as planned.

 

Would I make that trade? Sure.

[dude]

Can't imagine the Dodgers giving us Buelher for Kremer and Ortiz. Unless they, behind the scenes, think his surgery and recovery really aren't going as planned.

 

Like I said, the Dodgers can assess how they want.  They're paying him something around 8M and this is his final season of Service control.  They can afford to to whatever they want, but the calculus for them may be more than is Buehler better at rate stats than Kremer.

 

The Dodgers have a huge commitment to winning and anything less than the WS is considered failure.  They've struggled to get the innings they need out of their staff and someone like Kremer may produce more balance in terms of innings (vs Buehler) and performance floor (versus their younger pitchers). 

 

They got hurt by these risks last year and may want to (they don't check in with me) mitigate them at some level.  

 

Kremer, Ortiz and even Beavers give them a cost/service//performance floor that matches well with the needs of the rest of that roster.

 

Buehler gives the Orioles a higher performance profile where they may be able to accept the risks better.  You get more than Buehler for that type of package.  Figure out what else works.  Lux makes sense for a number of reasons and target some pitching (they have a lot of) that layers well in the Orioles system.

[Mackus]

Id do Kremer and Ortiz for Buehler and an extension. Still would need to add a SP for 2024, but I like the upgrade for longer term.

[BSLChrisStoner]

So two TJ's... missed all of '23. 

Healthy Buehler obviously better than Kremer, but Kremer coming off a 32 start, 172 inning season. 
How many starts and innings is Buehler going to make in '24?

 

Buehler could give you that other front-end arm to team with Bradish, and Rodriguez...  but depending on him and Means to give you reliable innings in '24 is also a risk. 

 

There is merit to the idea.
It's worth thinking about it. 
It's not an easy no doubt call imo.

[dude]

It's not an easy no doubt call imo.

 

Agreed and I think it's why the Dodgers consider it and Buehler considers an extension.  All risk/reward balance.

[dude]

Buehler could give you that other front-end arm to team with Bradish, and Rodriguez...  but depending on him and Means to give you reliable innings in '24 is also a risk. 

 

Get Burnes done and a rotation of ....

 

Burnes

Means

Buehler

GRod

Bradish

 

....is a big rotation and I could make an argument is the best in MLB.

 

fwiw, I'd want to extend Buehler and Means and would limit them to basically 30 starts and 5 innings per start in 2024.  The Orioles could tandem Hall with Buehler and Baumann with Means as the approach this year.  

 

For me, the gloves are off with Burnes (use him up), GRod and Bradish this year....would like to see those guys up close to 200 IP..

 

McDermitt, Johnson and Povich provide quality depth this year and you look at one of them and probably Hall to compete to fill Burnes spot in 2025.

[dude]

LAD and Buehler notes