21 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Diving into an imaginary trade package for Burnes

https://www.masnspor...kage-for-burnes

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Burnes would be terrific in an O's uniform. But that proposed trade seems a bit too much for one year.

[BobPhelan]

Would much rather go after Freddy Peralta, younger and under contract for 3 more seasons for cheap. Love Burnes but not giving up a haul for one season without an extension.

[dude]

Would much rather go after Freddy Peralta, younger and under contract for 3 more seasons for cheap. Love Burnes but not giving up a haul for one season without an extension.

 

So why is Freddy Peralta available? ...not saying everyone isn't available (you can over pay to get anyone), but you have to go talk them out of him in a way that will never happen. 

 

Burnes is a Boras client (so there is no extensions) but that's fine.  Use him in 2024, do everything you can, take the compensation for him as a FA and put Woodruff in your back pocket for 2024 (rehab) and follow Burnes in 2025++.

[dude]

This could certainly be in the other Starting Pitching thread (odd allocations, whatever).

I guess I don't have a big problem with what Bowden is saying although I think it's too much.

 

My issue is it seems to miss factors surrounding the deal.

 

I find it unlikely the Orioles are extending this roster with Burnes (~16M) salary.

 

I don't really care about putting McDermott or Beavers in a deal, I just don't think it's where the Brewers would go.  Maybe they'll try to sell more of a value package, but they have a huge hole at 2B, were among the worst team in MLB at 2B in 2023 and the Orioles most blocked prospect is a 2B.

 

If I'm the Orioles, I want to keep Mayo over Mountcastle for a number of reasons, but as I point out elsewhere, Mounty gives them (Brewers) a move developed offensive profile with the chance to look even better away from OPaCY but you (MIL) can make them (BAL) pay a little more to protect Mayo.

 

Ultimately you have to find ways to balance cost and you could certainly do it in other ways, but ultimately, if you did the non-Yelich version of the other thread....

 

NYM get Santander, Urias

MIL gets Mountcastle, Norby, Mauricio and 2 other NYM prospects

BAL gets Burnes, MIL CompB

 

Works well for both Mets and Brewers and the Orioles add Burnes and the payroll goes down.   

[Slidemaster]

They're not getting Burnes.

[dude]

They're not getting Burnes.

 

That may turn out true, but it's not because they can't get him.  They match up as well as any team in terms of a trade.  Burnes doesn't get to vote. Brewers will trade him.  It's only a question of to who and for what.  They aren't going into rebuilding, but they'll need to do some things to maintain a competitive opportunity.

 

He will test FA (for any trading team) so you get compensation for him heading into 2025.

 

The trade above saves the Orioles ~3M by adding him.

 

You trade for Burnes and sign Kimbrel and your offseason is basically done and the Orioles get a B+ and the payroll is in the 60-65M range depending on other modest moves.  You want an A, there's a layer of additional things you can do (like an Adley extension).

[dude]

I'll include this here, but this whole tread could be in the Starting Pitching thread.

 

Typically, mlb.com's Anthony Castrovince is (imo) one of the better writer/analysts when it comes to these things....but he proposes 6 blockbuster trades here and #3 is Burnes to the Dodgers.  He concludes it may take more, but he's got 

 

LAD get Burnes AND Adames

for

MIL Lux and RPSP Emmitt Sheehan.

 

That's nothing in terms of a package....and he's suggesting that for Burnes AND Adames (to solve the Dodgers SS need).  Adames solves LAD needs for a SS in 2024, but not really longer term especially if they are investing in Ohtani (and want to preserve some dollars somewhere).

 

Essentially...this suggestion for Burnes is basically Emmitt Sheehan.  That seems well off, even if you think there's 'other pieces' in there.

 

If the Brewers wanted Lux (AC notes he's from Kenosha, WI) then that's pretty easy to get to as a different path to get Joey Ortiz to LAD....so something like...

 

LAD get Joey Ortiz

MIL get Lux, Norby, Mountcastle

BAL gets Burnes

 

...is good for all 3 teams and the Brewers still get value out of Adames (Marlins are biggest SS need).

----------------

 

His 6th trade is a 4-teamer ("usually you pay double for that kind of action, Cotton") with the Orioles giving up Basallo and Westburg for Cease.

 

This is what drives me crazy about this kind of stuff.

 

Burnes >> Cease (I know Cease has an extra year of control)

 

for the Orioles...

 

Ortiz (no role), Norby (no role) and Mountcastle (replace with Mayo) is a package that has no negative consequences to a projected starting lineup, where Westburg (starting 2B) and Basallo (best bat, DH/C soon) would be talking 2 significant pieces off the roster.

 

So you pay more (consequence) for less (Cease) or you pay Less (consequence) for more (Burnes...and you get a comp pick back).

[Mackus]

Ortiz, Norby and Mountcastle sounds like a ton for one year of Burnes. I'd probably do it if that's what it takes, but I'd hope that's not what it takes.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Ortiz, Norby and Mountcastle sounds like a ton for one year of Burnes. I'd probably do it if that's what it takes, but I'd hope that's not what it takes.

Pass. Use that package to find a pitcher with more long term control

[dude]

Ortiz, Norby and Mountcastle sounds like a ton for one year of Burnes. I'd probably do it if that's what it takes, but I'd hope that's not what it takes.

 

Sure, but if you're MIL, you want to start with Mayo and Norby plus some other lesser pieces.

 

If you (O's) want to preserve Mayo in the deal and swap Mountcastle, then you ante another piece.  If I'm MIL, I'm OK with that swap but I still get to make you pay..

 

I've suggested including the Mets, but if Lux was a thing, go get Lux (easy) and if you do that, get MIL's CompB pick (suggested that earlier, I left it out to not confuse Wile E).

 

This isn't the Madden Trade-o-0meter where you are just trying to add up some notion of value.  MIL is going to ask for something because they can.and because those pieces don't hurt the Orioles (are excess), they'll want more.

 

...but you look at the Bowden trade that started this thread, that's well more even if the fit/relevance is less..  

[dude]

Pass. Use that package to find a pitcher with more long term control

 

Name a pitcher that is better than Burnes, with more years of control, on a Team that has needs at 1B/2B that would make any sense.

 

Cost of Availability^TM is what it is.

[Mackus]

Sure, but if you're MIL, you want to start with Mayo and Norby plus some other lesser pieces.

If you (O's) want to preserve Mayo in the deal and swap Mountcastle, then you ante another piece. If I'm MIL, I'm OK with that swap but I still get to make you pay..

I've suggested including the Mets, but if Lux was a thing, go get Lux (easy) and if you do that, get MIL's CompB pick (suggested that earlier, I left it out to not confuse Wile E).

This isn't the Madden Trade-o-0meter where you are just trying to add up some notion of value. MIL is going to ask for something because they can.and because those pieces don't hurt the Orioles (are excess), they'll want more.

...but you look at the Bowden trade that started this thread, that's well more even if the fit/relevance is less..

I'm willing to beat everyone else to get Burnes. But I'm not willing to pay more than that on top of it just because we can afford the prospect cost. The Yankees and Dodgers pay FAs an extra year and an extra million per year to outbid everyone, but they don't go two extra years and three extra million per just because they can afford it.

If the Brewers insist on not just the best offer but a '#1 System Tax' on top of that, then you make a move for someone else. Burnes is worth paying full freight for, but not more than that. Unless for some reason he becomes the last piece left. If you get backed into a corner because you're short-sighted and say no to all the other deals that were there, then you gotta pay whatever it takes. We're not there yet, and I think Norby, Ortiz and Mountcastle is in the '#1 System Tax' price tier.

[BobPhelan]

Name a pitcher that is better than Burnes, with more years of control, on a Team that has needs at 1B/2B that would make any sense.

Cost of Availability^TM is what it is.

Freddy Peralta, literally the same team.

[dude]

ok, I'll ask again.

 

So why is Freddy Peralta available? ...not saying everyone isn't available (you can over pay to get anyone), but you have to go talk them out of him in a way that will never happen. 

 

Are you paying Holliday and Mayo?  Is that dumb to ask for?  They don't care, you get stupid or he's not available.  They aren't looking at moving him in a reasonable deal.  We aren't just listing players we want.

[dude]

I'm willing to beat everyone else to get Burnes. But I'm not willing to pay more than that on top of it just because we can afford the prospect cost. The Yankees and Dodgers pay FAs an extra year and an extra million per year to outbid everyone, but they don't go two extra years and three extra million per just because they can afford it.

If the Brewers insist on not just the best offer but a '#1 System Tax' on top of that, then you make a move for someone else. Burnes is worth paying full freight for, but not more than that. Unless for some reason he becomes the last piece left. If you get backed into a corner because you're short-sighted and say no to all the other deals that were there, then you gotta pay whatever it takes. We're not there yet, and I think Norby, Ortiz and Mountcastle is in the '#1 System Tax' price tier.

 

We have no idea where that line is.  They can make any argument they want and teams work to the perception of a deal all of the time.  Value from TeamA doesn't have to equal value from TeamB.

 

If you don't have some relationship to build off of, especially a new team there, is going to try nad establish themselves a little.  They'll get judged on this so they want to look strong. 

 

It's going to be more than "Emmitt Sheehan".

[Slidemaster]

I actually think it's far more likely that they will trade a prospect in the 11-15 range for a guy with good raw stuff and mediocre results who they think they can transform into a good pitcher than they trade a top 5 prospect for 1 year of a guy who is already good.

Trading future good major leaguers for 1 year of a guy to "go for it" doesn't seem at all like what Elias likes to do. Doesn't mean it's what I'd do, but it seems like that isn't something he believes in.

The sooner we let go of literally any expectations of this FO when it comes to player acquisition outside of the organization, the less disappointed we'll be when they do something disappointing.

[BobPhelan]

We aren't just listing players we want.

You do it all the time.

[dude]

You do it all the time.

 

I actually rarely, if ever talk about things that can't happen.  When I do, I acknowledge they aren't going to happen.  (Like the Pete Alonso blurb in the other thread).

 

Very few guys fall into a "reasonable baseball trade" box....nearly every player falls (to different degrees) to the extremes.  This is why the Trade Calculator thingy is wrong.  It's fun, but they aren't accounting for things correctly. They are trying but it's wrong, but still fun to play with.

 

Either guys are available (then you figure out to who and for what) or they aren't reasonably available.  (a guy like Peralta fits there).  It's not that you can't create some deal for them (if Steve wants to hang onto that 0% case), but the reality is there's nothing you'd reasonably accept. 

 

Santander is available despite the notion that some want to hold onto him and he's available because you have a Team (O's) that wants to create a spot for a younger player and is more likely to shed dollars to make room for another need (like SP).  The Orioles don't have a resource issue, they have a will issue based on something none of us care about.

 

Some people here want to make this hard, but it's really not.  We know 85-95% of the things we need to know to make reasonable assessments.  Obviously there can be details in anything (like the confusing ERod non-trade) that we don't know, but those are typically the exceptions.

 

You keep not answering the question.  Maybe you can't share.  Maybe you don't want to share.  Maybe there's nothing to share.

[bmore_ken]

You trade for Burnes and sign Kimbrel and your offseason is basically done and the Orioles get a B+ and the payroll is in the 60-65M range depending on other modest moves.  You want an A, there's a layer of additional things you can do (like an Adley extension).

None of that is happening. It's nice to dream though