8 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

For those that don't get the title, in the Godfather there was this mafia role called the consigliere, which in that job this person would be the chief advisor for the leader of the mafia family. Now in the movies there was a distinction between a peacetime consigliere and a wartime consigliere.

Alright, so what the hell does this have to do with the Orioles?

Well Elias has excelled at being a peacetime (rebuilding or tanking) GM or consigliere with his amazing management as far as drafting and player development goes. However, once the team made it to wartime (contention), perhaps a bit ahead of schedule (props to Chris Stoner's timeline for making a comeback this season), Elias has been ineffectual with boosting the teams championship chances.

Now some may say that's crazy, after all they just won 101 games! Clearly Elias is excelling in both roles!

Ok, but let's evaluate the process here. Again, amazing job with drafting and development and anything else that comes with rebuilding/tanking! What though has Elias done when he's been looking to help this amazing young squad have a better chance at winning in October that he wouldn't have done if he were still in tanking mode (hello Cano and O'Hearn)?

So in the 2022 deadline, he decided to punt instead of go for it. That's been debated to death and I'm not interested in debating it again, but it's worth noting within the framework of my position.

Last offseason he made the following moves that could be categorized as trying to bolster the surprisingly pretty good 2022 team:

- Signed Gibson to a 1 year deal (incredibly underwhelming move both in terms of process and results based on the team's situation)

- Signed Frazier to a 1 year deal (I didn't get this at all in terms of process, but the results were mid instead of trash)

- Traded for Irvin (decent process, disappointing results to date)

- Signed Givens to a 1/2 year deal (poor in process and even worse in results)

Ok, I'm at a brewery in Philly while my wife is coming back from her nap after running a half marathon so maybe I'm missing other stuff. I guess bringing Tate back?

Fast forward to July and the O's are remarkably one of the very best teams in baseball! Yet, they also have very clear holes, which actually should be a great position for a contending team to be in since it's clear what they need to target. What do they do however...

- Trade for Fuji (interesting in terms of process as a secondary piece, poor results)

- Trade for Flaherty (poor in process, amazingly much worse in terms of results)

So very poor moves collectively, but the bigger problem imo in all this has been the moves that weren't made. Last offseason and again at the deadline, the need for at least one strong SP could not have been much more obvious, yet the trigger was never pulled on such a move. This past deadline the need for at least one strong reliever was similarly obvious, yet again no move was made for one. Nothing else of significance was done to help make up for this inaction either.

So now in this offseason, the question remains: do we have a satisfactory wartime consigliere? The peacetime (rebuilding/ tanking) moves management could not possibly be much better and all that is still incredibly valuable as the team has transitioned into contention, but we have yet to see much willingness or effectiveness in making contention moves. Hopefully that changes this offseason.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Does Elias have to be any different (or do the O's HAVE to make additions) to be a legitimate contender in '24?

 

I think the answer there is no. 

 

Should Elias be looking to augment what they have, and increase (to whatever degree) their opportunity at contending in '24? 

(Impact reliever, impact starter would be nice.)

I think the answer there is yes. 

 

 

I think there are moves to be made to improve the '24 chances without drastically impacting the potential window of opportunity.

So yeah, if Elias doesn't take advantage of the money (ok, that's organizational decision making there), or utilize some of the depth to address need.... that falls on him....   but if by pure definition Elias doesn't have to do anything for the O's to again be a contender, I'm not sure he has to change at all.

[mweb08]

They can be a contender either way, but if they also do well at win now moves, that would help a lot.

So far the win now moves have largely been a combination of lacking and sucking.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Michael Corleone didn't seem to spare any expense to get the soldiers he needed to win a war. If your Boss doesn't care about winning, as a consigliere you will always be fighting with one hand tied behind your back.

[mweb08]

Michael Corleone didn't seem to spare any expense to get the soldiers he needed to win a war. If your Boss doesn't care about winning, as a consigliere you will always be fighting with one hand tied behind your back.

Fair, but it seems like Elias might be good with the cheapness too. Or maybe more accurately, he's super into the drafting and player development aspect of the job but not as interested in the win now aspect of the job.

[makoman]

Fair, but it seems like Elias might be good with the cheapness too. Or maybe more accurately, he's super into the drafting and player development aspect of the job but not as interested in the win now aspect of the job.

It's impossible to know. But I feel like any GM would be happy to have more money to spend, so if I have to pick I will assume the cheapness is on Angelos. "It seems Elias might be good with the cheapness too" or he's "not as interested in the win now aspect" is just pure speculation, but Angelos being cheap certainly tracks with the various things he's said over the past year.

[mweb08]

It's impossible to know. But I feel like any GM would be happy to have more money to spend, so if I have to pick I will assume the cheapness is on Angelos. "It seems Elias might be good with the cheapness too" or he's "not as interested in the win now aspect" is just pure speculation, but Angelos being cheap certainly tracks with the various things he's said over the past year.

Sure, but Elias has had multiple ways to attack the win now avenue, and he's generally demurred. Also, when he's dipped his toes in the water of win now, it's generally not worked out. That last part is a significant part of my opening post btw.

But more specifically on the money, we have surely been given mixed messages on that. Most of the messaging has suggested that while there wasn't as much money available as should have been available, there has been much more at Elias' disposal than what has been spent. I think the very pro Elias crowd has generally agreed with that as well. But she, who knows?

Even the money spent has been very questionable if that was the budget available to Elias. Gibson, Frazier, and some meh bullpen pitchers over going for higher end talent?

[makoman]

I do agree that the spending has been...odd. Gibson+Frazier when middle infield seemed to already have plenty of depth could have easily just instead been someone better than Gibson.

[Ravens2006]

John Angelos won't allow him to make moves that add any significant long term contract money commitments to the organization. Not going to be able to add proven free agents, nor will they be able to trade for proven vets that already have a "high end" market value contract... because John isn't going to pay the bill.

The salary spending basically started it's deep dive to the bottom at the same time John took over the reigns from his incapacitated father. It's not coincidence.