70 replies to this topic

[jamesdean]

Like with football, you first have to hope that everyone stays healthy for the year and that's unlikely.  One of the pitchers is going to go down at some point, if not more than one of them.  The season is just too long with the way pitchers throw today.  Burns has been very durable so I'm sure that was one of the more attractive aspects of Elias pursuing the trade.  

[Mackus]

Like with football, you first have to hope that everyone stays healthy for the year and that's unlikely.  One of the pitchers is going to go down at some point, if not more than one of them.  The season is just too long with the way pitchers throw today.  Burns has been very durable so I'm sure that was one of the more attractive aspects of Elias pursuing the trade.  

 

Yep, O's got very fortunate with injuries last season so that's one place we could go backwards in 2024 through no fault of anyone and need to be as insulated against that as practical.  Adding Burnes helps a ton in the rotation in that regard.

[BaltBird 24]

Mullins and Mountcastle both missed significant time last year.

Santander, Adley, Gunnar the only guys with 600+ PA. Santander has had health issues in the past, but no reason to think they can't stay healthy. Hays is always good for a IL trip or two, but think the reinforcements behind him are just as good.

Obviously anything can happen with pitching, but Kremer, Rodriguez, and Bradish all took the ball regularly last year. Burnes has been a workhorse in the modern ERA.

[Mackus]

Mullins and Mountcastle both missed significant time last year.
 

 

Each guy only missed about 1/4 of the season, that's not too bad.  Bradish missed like a week early and Bautista the only other injury to a key guy and he only missed a few weeks.  Probably a couple short stints I'm forgetting.  I suppose you could argue Tate and Means, but we went into the year knowing they wouldn't be a part of it, much like Felix this year.

 

Overall the O's had just about the best possible injury avoidance you could ask for in 2023.  I think we should expect more injuries in 2024, purely since you almost always have more than the O's had in '23.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We were quite healthy in '22 as well if I remember correctly.

[Mackus]

We were quite healthy in '22 as well if I remember correctly.

 

Means went down for the whole year after two starts.  That alone might be more lost time than all major contributors in 2023.

 

Bradish missed about a month, Wells missed about 6 weeks then also the final 2 weeks, and Urias had a 3-week stint in 2022.  Urias also missed 2-weeks in 2023 I had forgotten about.  Probably some others, hard to hunt down I haven't found just a straight source of IL trips.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hays didnt miss time but the HBP really derailed his '22. Wells basically was injuries for 6 or 7 weeks last year too. Givens was fat, got hurt, and then lit up like a Christmas tree

[RichardZ]

Part of the reason, and it might be a small one, is that they seem to target and value pitchers who have a track record of durability. Lyles, Gibson, Kimbrel, and Burnes. Just a coincidence that Elias was willing to give up Hall whose record of durability is not good.

Hays and Santander seemed injury prone but they’ve mostly posted up the last two years.

[bmore_ken]

This literally could be the best O's rotation since the 70's. Yeah I know a lot of you weren't around to see it, but it was lovely. 

[makoman]

This literally could be the best O's rotation since the 70's. Yeah I know a lot of you weren't around to see it, but it was lovely. 

1995 and 97 were nice too and at least in the conversation. Mussina, Brown, Erickson, Moyer, McDonald, and Mussina, Key, Erickson, Kamieniecki. Kevin Brown was weird, why'd we sign him for 1 year? He was suddenly a yearly CY candidate right when he left.

 

Anyway, I love the top 3 we have, and if Means is really back healthy I love the top 4.

[Ravens2006]

Eh, starting pitchers only play once every 5 games... overrated!!!

[BaltBird 24]

Moyer and Brown didn't become what they were until they were away from Baltimore.

Top 3 in 97 was nice, but I'm taking everyone in our current rotation over Kamieniecki.

[makoman]

Moyer and Brown didn't become what they were until they were away from Baltimore.

Top 3 in 97 was nice, but I'm taking everyone in our current rotation over Kamieniecki.

That's fair, Moyer sucked that year, but Brown was very good 133 ERA+.

 

Kamieniecki wasn't great overall but was pretty good that year, 110 ERA+, I'd take that version over Kremer, even though Kremer was better 2 years ago. I wouldn't take him over healthy Means or Grayson, whoever you have 4.

 

Another good part of 1997 is 4 starters started 131 games. Pretty good health there.

[BaltBird 24]

Brown was very good in 95. I was only 7 and can only look back at the stats, but then he kicked it into a totally different gear the next year at age 31 and for a few year after.

[dude]

 You try to put something together like a 2/20 deal where he gets 4M this year (in rehab) and 12M in 2025 with a 4M buyout on a 4/84 team option. 

 

Woodruff resigned with the Brewers. Terms were recently announced.

 

Looks like a 2/17.5M deal with 2.5M in '24, 5M in '25 with a 10M b/o on a mutual 1/20 option.

 

That's a different balance of risk/reward that the quoted.

[Mackus]

Wow, that's a good bit more than I'd have guessed for him. Maybe they think he's got a shot at pitching late in 2024? Committing $17.5M for 2025 is a lot, and like you said a mutual 2026 option is essentially a void year as those are essentially never picked up by both sides (any examples of both sides saying yes?).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its stupid is what it is

[Mackus]

Its stupid is what it is

I'd have expected like $10-12M and thought that a smart deal (possibly even for the O's, although shoulder injuries terrify me so I'd have stayed away with my limited knowledge).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its stupid for a known contender. If you are fringy like Bos is with Hendricks or Mil is then sure whatever. Likely throw away money for a scratchoff. Also, at least Hendericks wasnt the shoulder. So not quite as risky there and I think he was cheaper.

[You Play to Win the Game]

This behind the pitcher camera is insane. Making me literally sick. Gotta love MASN.