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2024 Orioles - Starting pitching


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#1 dude

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Posted 13 November 2023 - 09:05 PM

I know there's a few thoughts in mucked in with every thought in the other thread, but this certainly deserves it's own discussion.

 

What the Orioles do with Starting pitching certainly impacts the Closer and Bullpen roles (Tyler Wells is the real wild card everywhere), but this is the one area that everyone wants to see a significant add.

 

I think it's fair to project Means, GRod and Bradish as locked into the rotation pending something crazy or injury.  Kremer should have the inside track on a spot depending on what else you do with SP.  Wells becomes the wild card to add to this group. 

 

That's 5.  You aren't optioning any of those guys and while Wells could slide into a bullpen role, I don't see the other 4 being other than starters.  You aren't putting Kremer in the bullpen, if you displace him as a SP, you trade him. 

 

If you just line that up a little

 

SP1 New add

SP2 Means (ARB3)

SP3 GRod (TC1)

SP4 Bradish (TC2)

SP5 Kremer (TC3...borderline Super 2 at 2.112)

 

BP TWells (Super 2 at 2.132)

 

I think it's safe to suggest the Orioles aren't signing a significant FA.  They've shown zero interest in playing in the FA market.  I don't think that will always be the case, but until the ownership issue is resolved, I think it's safe to assume there won't be a significant 2024 commitment like that. 

 

I think it's also fair to suggest they'll look at something bigger than the Lyles/Gibson stature (although credit to both of them for being solid in Baltimore).

 

I think the safe consensus is the Orioles leverage some unusable prospect capital to make a deal for a SP.  The question always is who and for what.  Outside of adding someone to bridge back to Bautista's health,

Most assessments of the offseason comes down to the "New add" at the top of the rotation. 

 

The only other real issue is if they try and work an extension with John Means.  You aren't getting an extension with GRod so drop that thought.  Some have suggested Bradish, but I don't think you can extend him off his 2023 season (no reasonable overlap) and there's no one else to really consider at this point.



#2 dude

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Posted 13 November 2023 - 09:45 PM

People have mentioned Cease and some others, but I think the first option has to go through Milwaukee. They aren't going to rebuild, but they need to work their roster and the Orioles match up well with their needs.  They need a reset, but pursue ML ready/capable players that allow them to continue to compete.

 

I've been more of a Woodruff guy (extension opportunity) versus Burnes (no extension opportunity), but I think you could tie them together right now.  Woodruff is having should surgery and will likely miss most of, if not all of the 2024 season.  BrewCrew has a week to decide his arbitration fate and I'd suggest it's 100% unlikely they pay him 11+M in arbitration.  He likely forces them to make a decision and he becomes a FA because he may not want to sign onto whatever 2025+ look like there.  Woodruff has no value, but there could be goodness in trading him before non-tendering him just because it looks/feels better and you let someone else figure it out.

 

If you pay for a year of Burnes (Boras), you use Burnes to get back to Woodruff.

 

Burnes at the top in 2024 makes the rotation look strong and you hold strength with Woodruff in the future.

 

Brewers need help offensively, everywhere.  OPS/ranking...1B (.665/29th) and 2B (.602/29th).  They were also 21st (.705) at 3B and don't have a younger solution (depending on your view of Tyler Black as more a UT).

 

The Orioles' match up well at 1B and 2B.  We'll come back to that.

 

I've mentioned the Mets before, but I could see the Mets and Orioles matching up again too.  Another thread, but I see Santander as the odd man out in the OF, so he gets traded.  The Mets could really use players like Santander (RF) and Urias (3B) to try and find some of the Magic missing in Queens, but abundant in Charm City.

 

If the Brewers are realigning their roster, this would probably be the offseason to sell Yelich high and no team cares less about the money than Steve Cohen's Mets.  Add the fact that former Brewer David Sterns is now the Mets' Baseball Guy.  I don't think Yelich has "prospect value" but moving most of the money in something of a realignment would make sense for the Brewers.

 

You can see....you got it...a 3-team trade Brewing (pun intended).

 

From the Orioles, the Brewers would certainly prefer Mayo to Mountcastle, but, at the same time Mounty would be their best non-Yelich hitter and you could dream on a power bump getting out of OPaCY.  Also, while you prefer the service opportunity of Mayo versus Mounty, the fact is that Mounty is likely a pretty easy extension if you wanted to get a 4+3 type deal structured.

 

Norby is the obvious, MLB ready 2B candidate.

 

If you bring the Mets in a deal and they are moving Yelich, would they want to buy low on Cowser?

 

You can think about it as 3 2-team deals...or you can combine them into a single deal.

 

MIL gets Mountcastle, Norby, Cowser, Mauricio, Marte (salary offset for Yelich)

NYM get Yelich, Santander, Urias

Orioles gets Burnes, Woodruff (no value) and ???

 

That should be more than enough value (and move Woodruff decision) to make the Brewers jump now and not wait for other deals.

 

The Mets complete their offense and can focus on pitching. 

 

...nobody in the deal really hurts the Orioles (assuming AS was traded somewhere) but from a value perspective, they're clearly underwater. So the Mets and Brewers have to solve the ??? part or take Cowser out of the deal or something.

 

....way too much negative value?...ok, how far does that go to getting Devin Williams in the deal?  Hmmmm.



#3 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 13 November 2023 - 09:53 PM

Oh just a 3 team 10+ player deal. Is that it. ROFL

#4 CantonJester

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Posted 13 November 2023 - 10:56 PM

Mounty should be dealt for pitching. Previously I mentioned RP but if you think the O's are out on all FA, then work a deal for SP. Forget about SP two years from now if it means you're selling low on Cowser. Not sure the O's can afford to move on from Santander if they think Cowser isn't worth it. 



#5 dude

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 12:52 AM

Forget about SP two years from now if it means you're selling low on Cowser. Not sure the O's can afford to move on from Santander if they think Cowser isn't worth it. 

 

I don't really understand the alignment of this comment.

 

Woodruff is nothing in terms of value.  They'll just non-tender him next week.  The only advantage wrt to Woodruff is if you did something now, you get some perception of value for him and let someone else deal with the decision.  From an Orioles perspective, getting to work something out with Woodruff could have value.  He can become a FA but if he doesn't find the deal he wants then how does he stay at some level of professional (Organizational) care. You try to put something together like a 2/20 deal where he gets 4M this year (in rehab) and 12M in 2025 with a 4M buyout on a 4/84 team option. 

 

Cowser has nothing to do with that part of the deal.  If MIL moved Yelich and they wanted to add a top 30ish guy there, that's available, but would require ante from either the MIL or NYM side.  The number of players is a challenge for slow people, but not really consequential in terms of completing a deal. It's just about needs. 

 

Your OF is Hays - Mullins - Kjerstad....you are basically trading Santander to make room for Cowser or Kjerstad....but you are doing that in basically every scenario, unless you're trading Hays too to make room for Cowser.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 08:52 AM

I'm skeptical they'll go for any multi-year FA, but only Ohtani, Snell, Gray and Nola among SP FAs received a qualifying offer.  Everyone else can be signed without compensation.  I'm gonna assume these guys are completely off the table for the O's.

 

Yamamoto will be way out of bounds on price, so he's not a realistic option either.  Montgomery going to be too expensive as well.  

 

I think the best we can hope for is from the group of guys like Shota Imanaga (the other posted FA), Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito, or Michael Wacha

 

Other guys who might only take 1-2 year deals as lower cost or bounce-back candidates that will probably be on the radar are Kenta Maeda, Michael Lorenzen, Wade Miley, Martin Perez, Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas.  I'm gonna hope that a Kyle Gibson reunion isn't on the table.  A lefty from this group (Miley, Perez, Manaea) wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't appease me.

 

Totally on board with anyone putting together a "here's what I'd do plan" that includes some of the top of market pitchers.  They aren't out of the Orioles resource range.  Just outside of their risk-acceptance and desire-to-win range.



#7 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 09:04 AM

The O's need a quality SP. Doesn't have to be an "ace" but a "TOR" guy is needed. Don't care if its via FA or trade. Certainly with this FO a trade scenario is much more likely.

 

My fear is that come ST the rotation is going to be:

Means
Bradish

GRod

Kremer

Gibsonesque

 

And that won't be acceptable to me. Fully expect to be disappointed since I have seen zero indication that Elias is willing to trade any significant chips to step change improve the team.


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#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 09:48 AM

I'm skeptical they'll go for any multi-year FA, but only Ohtani, Snell, Gray and Nola among SP FAs received a qualifying offer. Everyone else can be signed without compensation. I'm gonna assume these guys are completely off the table for the O's.

Yamamoto will be way out of bounds on price, so he's not a realistic option either. Montgomery going to be too expensive as well.

I think the best we can hope for is from the group of guys like Shota Imanaga (the other posted FA), Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito, or Michael Wacha

Other guys who might only take 1-2 year deals as lower cost or bounce-back candidates that will probably be on the radar are Kenta Maeda, Michael Lorenzen, Wade Miley, Martin Perez, Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. I'm gonna hope that a Kyle Gibson reunion isn't on the table. A lefty from this group (Miley, Perez, Manaea) wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't appease me.

Totally on board with anyone putting together a "here's what I'd do plan" that includes some of the top of market pitchers. They aren't out of the Orioles resource range. Just outside of their risk-acceptance and desire-to-win range.

I agree that those first guys you listed who have a QO and also anyone else who is gonna blow past a 100 mil contracts are out of play. I think the next tier down is in play. Fangraphs projections have all of Gray, Stroman, ERod, Hader, Giolito in this $50-$100 mil total range. Think we can and will shop here though I agree its more likely we sign someone like say a Lugo or Wacha who are both in 3/35 range or someone on a 1yr deal.

#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 09:54 AM

Lugo is interesting to me regardless because hes shown he can pitch in rotation or out of the pen. Gives you some versatility.

#10 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 10:07 AM

The O's need a quality SP. Doesn't have to be an "ace" but a "TOR" guy is needed. Don't care if its via FA or trade. Certainly with this FO a trade scenario is much more likely.

 

My fear is that come ST the rotation is going to be:

Means
Bradish

GRod

Kremer

Gibsonesque

 

And that won't be acceptable to me. Fully expect to be disappointed since I have seen zero indication that Elias is willing to trade any significant chips to step change improve the team.

 

Agree with your expectation and with your take on that decision if it is made.

 

I'll believe we're willing to do something bold when it happens.  Until then, its just bargain hunting.  No credit for making the 2nd best offer, now or in the past.


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#11 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 10:09 AM

Wish I knew if we put a claim in on Giolito in August.  If we didn't, then there is no chance they are interested in signing him.  Would make no sense to like him enough to offer 2/$30-40M but not enough to take on 6 weeks of his $10M salary in 2023.  But, if they did like him enough to put in a claim, then I could see them being intrigued by the possibility of buying low on him and not having to commit many years to signing him.

 

He wouldn't be the type of arm I'd be excited about as front of rotation, but I would be intrigued if they like him enough to sign him.  



#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 10:15 AM

Clemens at FGs had Giolito at 4/60. Surprised me a lot. Obviously that predicition doesnt mean he gets it. Im not giving him 4 years but if Elias knows something I dont and thinks they can fix him I guess whatever

#13 CantonJester

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Posted 14 November 2023 - 05:18 PM

I don't really understand the alignment of this comment.

 

Woodruff is nothing in terms of value.  They'll just non-tender him next week.  The only advantage wrt to Woodruff is if you did something now, you get some perception of value for him and let someone else deal with the decision.  From an Orioles perspective, getting to work something out with Woodruff could have value.  He can become a FA but if he doesn't find the deal he wants then how does he stay at some level of professional (Organizational) care. You try to put something together like a 2/20 deal where he gets 4M this year (in rehab) and 12M in 2025 with a 4M buyout on a 4/84 team option. 

 

Cowser has nothing to do with that part of the deal.  If MIL moved Yelich and they wanted to add a top 30ish guy there, that's available, but would require ante from either the MIL or NYM side.  The number of players is a challenge for slow people, but not really consequential in terms of completing a deal. It's just about needs. 

 

Your OF is Hays - Mullins - Kjerstad....you are basically trading Santander to make room for Cowser or Kjerstad....but you are doing that in basically every scenario, unless you're trading Hays too to make room for Cowser.

 

I absolutely want to sell high on Hays. 



#14 bmore_ken

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Posted 17 November 2023 - 07:13 AM

The O's need a quality SP. Doesn't have to be an "ace" but a "TOR" guy is needed. Don't care if its via FA or trade. Certainly with this FO a trade scenario is much more likely.

 

My fear is that come ST the rotation is going to be:

Means
Bradish

GRod

Kremer

Gibsonesque

 

And that won't be acceptable to me. Fully expect to be disappointed since I have seen zero indication that Elias is willing to trade any significant chips to step change improve the team.

Me either not that it matters to ownership. That rotation might be enough to get you to the playoffs, but as we just saw not enough to win it all. Just once I'd like to see them sign a TOR, damn the cost. 



#15 dude

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 10:25 AM

Woodruff is nothing in terms of value.  They'll just non-tender him next week.  

 

Woodruff was non-tendered by MIL.  He's not pitching in 2024 (he's trying to sell that he will, read: $$).  He's 30 and 2024 will be his age 31 season and back on the mound at 32. 

 

Seems unlikely anyone is giving him a big contract and absorbing all of the risk.  He needs to be in professional care for the season to have a rehab home.  Nobody is paying him just to rehab so he needs to find the team that guarantees something in 2025 and buffers that with some money in 2024.

 

I'd offer him the same deal as above.

 

I'd make another point.  There's always this kind of "max value" of what you need to sign guys for pre-FA.  We keep seeing the consequences of not getting locked into a contract and players have lost millions and millions of dollars.  Players (read: agents) can take whatever approach they want, but there is a ton of risk on both sides and guaranteed contracts are about managed risk for both sides. 

 

Mike Soroka looked like one of the best young pitchers and the Braves just traded him versus non-tender.  Walker Buehler.  We've seen this with John Means.  Guys like Giolito and Manoah are at risk not because of injury, but performance issues.  Woodruff's injury is going to cost him a lot of short term money.  I'll talk about Shane McClanahan in a second, but him too.  These are some of the best pitchers in The Game and they've cost themselves a fair amount of money by not locking up their ARB years plus a FA year or 2.  Someone list guys that regret locking into the ARB+FA1/2 type deals.



#16 dude

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 12:11 PM

I know there's a narrative that suggests you can't or shouldn't do anything for any year other than 2024, but that's not how you build a great Organization.  You leverage the things you want, when you can leverage them.

 

A year ago, it would have been ridiculous to talk about trading for a 26 year old Cy candidate like Shane McClanahan.

 

McClanahan is going to miss the 2024 season going under the knife for his second Tommy John Surgery.  He's a Super-2 for 2024 and has 3 years left in arbitration.  He's from Baltimore and despite moving away at age 5, "Cal is the reason I love the Game."

 

Bottom line is that if you wanted to make a play for Shane McClanahan, now is the time.

 

Go get Corbin Burnes now and you have 

 

SP1 Burnes

SP2 Means

SP3 GRod

SP4 Bradish

SP5 [fringe LHed SP]

 

You get compensation for Burnes leaving as a FA and come back in 2025 with

 

Woodruff (1+ team option)

Means (extend)

GRod (TC2)

McClanahan (ARB1)

Bradish (TC2)

 

If Woodruff and McClanahan make it back healthy, that rotation is a fully operational Death Star.



#17 BaltBird 24

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 12:21 PM

Relying on 2 guys coming off major injury, especially a shoulder injury like Woodruff, isn't optimal.

What makes you think TB would be interested in trading McClanahan, especially to a division rival? What are you giving up for him?

#18 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 12:35 PM

Locking in pitchers longer than you need to lock them in is just bad decision making. Sure there will be times when it will/would work out and if the pitcher wants to give you a very good discount as TJ or another serious injury insurance then you consider it. In general though its best to think of all pitchers as ticking time bombs. They should damn near be the RBs of baseball when it comes to signing them beyond team controlled years. In other words, when PA had his long standing thing of never signing a FA pitcher beyond 3 years( I believe thats what it was) he was actually on to something

#19 dude

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Posted 04 February 2024 - 03:56 PM

Some of the thoughts above re Woodruff and McClanahan probably aren't practical under Angelos ownership, but if you want to be a little bold and willing to accept some risk (new ownership), there's certainly a path to get Woodruff (post-Burnes) and McClanahan.

 

Cliff notes:

 

Woodruff: 2/20, 4M in 2024 (rehab), 12M in 2025 with a 4M b/o on a 3or4 year team option.

 

Trade for McClanahan, rehabs in 2024 (2nd TJS) and 3 years of control (3.6M in 2025, ARB2 in '26, ARB3 in '27).  Baltimore kid and maybe more of an opportunity to keep around long-term.

 

Both of those guys (also the Buehler thought) carry some risk, but there's reward too.



#20 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 11:18 PM

Woodruff had a very serious surgery at this point in his career. That injury is not easy to come back from. Especially when you are older. Giving him 20 mil right now is incredibly irresponsible.




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