21 replies to this topic

[BSLLukeRollfinke]

BSL: Orioles Offseason Wish List Part One: Contract Extensions

https://baltimorespo...act-extensions/

[bmore_ken]

Funny post on the wish llst

[Mackus]

Gunnar was always going to be impossible and I think they've waited so long that Adley now is. Holliday is intriguing, but I'll assume he's off-limits too because of Boras.

I'm content going year-to-year with Bradish and Rodriguez. Wouldn't complain if they did it, but it isn't as important to me as getting the position players done (or failing to do so) is.

I'd approach Mullins and Means about extensions. The other vets I'm not as interested in extending. Maybe Santander, but don't think I'd pay what it takes for him.

Anywhere the O's decide to actually spend money will impress me, so I'd be very happy for them to extend anyone, even if it's not the exact approach I'd take.

[CantonJester]

I just read that piece (and have thoughts), but man it's depressing that we've got another 150 or so days until opening day next year.

 

Aye. 

[dude]

Point of order: It's not a "rookie contract".  It's Team controlled service.

[dude]

Rutschman: I think you can still get him extended.  While there's certainly another gear (hopefully), Right now he's an .800 OPS catcher.  Love everything about him.  Want to extend him and I don't have any reason to change the last structures I discussed.  Had a different thing happened last offseason, JA would probably have really needed to extend him.  We'll see where it goes this offseason.  At some point it's too late, I doubt we're there yet. 

 

I don't know why we'd act like Henderson is an extension option.  It's not 9/200....it would be like 13/425.  It would have to be something insanely dumb.  Nobody should sign up for that.  Figure out the alignment and make decisions in 4-5 years.

 

The Orioles had a unique leverage last Sep with Holliday.  That's gone now.  He's into the Henderson case, so again, figure out the alignment (and for JH), the timing, and leverage the next 6 years.

[dude]

The easiest way to do that is to extend the talent already present within the organization, whether that be the veterans who have contracts that are soon to run out or the young stars who will only see their price tag rise over the next few years.

 

I agree with this from the article, but I think it means different things to everyone.

 

The Orioles didn't win 101 games last year because of rebuilding or anything that so many like to try and associate it with.  They had a good group of guys that went out and played their butt off.

 

Everyone acts like they can't wait to get rid of more than half this team, but the half they want to get rid of, may have been the most significant contributions to the non-Talent factors that generated the win total.  Chris and others have suggested a more Talented Team next year could win fewer games.  People should think about what that means.  It's correct, but hey, let's get rid of those guys.

 

You have to make choices.  Everyone isn't going to fit, so you figure out what you can do within the constraints you're limited by and you do what you can.

 

Step 1 for this is figure out what you think the Leadership core is for this team.  Extend that.

 

Santander.  Like the guy and I'd have no issues extending him, but if you're going to transition an OF spot, it's probably him.

 

Mullins and Hays. I'd guess they are tied together a little bit.  I'd make them the core of the Team with Adley and it's something you can get done.

 

Means.  Maybe you play it out and see where you want to be in a year, but I'm good with giving him a 3+ year deal now.  It's a very different deal than he'd have gotten after Cinco de Mayo a couple years ago.  He'll be 31 in April. 

 

Mountcastle.  Plenty of team control left (3 years) but you have to make some kind of decision somewhere.  Where does Mayo go? 1B? 3B? Another team?  

 

I'd put McCann in this group too.  I think he's statistically better than he performed this year, but my guess would be he's playing an important role in the clubhouse.  You could extend him a year, flatten his deal and actually make money in 2024 on his contract (given Mets' $$)

 

So I'm extend 4 and trade 2.

[dude]

Would not extend Bradish.  He was incredible last year, and while people seem to think my opinion is disparaging because I don't think he's one of the top 5 pitchers in MLB, guess what, they people shading my opinion don't think he is either.

 

You can't extend someone off their high, so I'm not sure there's real-estate to stand on between the team and agent.  You have 5 years of control remaining so plenty of time to figure out where you want to go.  He'll be a Super-2 in 2025, so his costs are going up faster than others.

 

Love GRod, but he's a Boras guy (now?) too....so you have 6 years of control and don't worry about it.

[dude]

A comment on this.

 

 ....and the rest of the young core still have multiple years of relatively low salaries remaining on their rookie contracts, so offering them more money up front and a few extra years of stability could be enticing.

 

This isn't really the way MLB contracts have worked.  You actually have an example now (Michael Harris) that did something like this, but he's basically the only one.  Several other guys (Hunter Greene) have taken like 3M in Year 3 of their Team controlled Service instead of 1M, but that's still not much.  Maybe the tide changes on this, but it doesn't seem like many acknowledge the nuanced costs in pre-arbitration and more so arbitration when you (ie MLB Teams) create new contract values. 

 

Any contracts the Orioles extend aren't costing them much in 2024.  They wouldn't have cost anything in 2023 either.

 

You are giving guys guaranteed security more than paying them 'more' now.

[Slidemaster]

The problem with extensions is they cost money. The Orioles don't spend that.

[Mike in STL]

The problem with extensions is they cost money. The Orioles don't spend that.

Yep. I have a wish list, but, what's the point. It's like asking mom and dad for a Lamborghini for Christmas when they work paycheck to paycheck. 

[bmore_ken]

The problem with extensions is they cost money. The Orioles don't spend that.

Spot on sir. Anyone who thinks Adley is getting extended this offseason needs to text me their suppliers number 

[dude]

The problem with extensions is they cost money. The Orioles don't spend that.

 

I think this comment (and others) are misplaced for different reasons.

 

John Angelos has a different problem.  You want him to (or ding him for not) spending money but most are finally coming around to the notion that this is a game about transition with MLB. 

 

If John Angelos somehow survives transition in ownership, I don't think he cares about spending more money.  They problem now is he needs the resources to backstop the issue (financial resiliency) MLB will use to not approve transition.  That's One Gate.  Once (iF) he passes that, the Orioles are a cash tree.  He can still take 50M off the team annually and build up his personal wealth, etc, and still spend 120-150M on the Orioles.

 

The issue then isn't so much "will he spend?", it's who's in charge of doing that, because at that point, John Angelos will do publicly what he's done in the shadows in the past.  He wants to be that guy because he thinks he can be that guy and that will likely have some 3+4=5 type consequences.

[dude]

Yep. I have a wish list, but, what's the point. It's like asking mom and dad for a Lamborghini for Christmas when they work paycheck to paycheck. 

 

The Orioles don't need a Lambo.  I don't really think anyone is asking for one.

 

The Rangers got nothing out of DeGrom or the Scherzer trade and they no longer are the longest tenured MLB Team without a Championship.  The Mets had Verlander AND Scherzer and finished under .500.  The Yankees have Gerritt Cole and Aaron Judge and were watching the WC round.  The Padres were everyone's darlings to Win and despite trying to stack up an All-Star Team, watched the WC round with the Yankees.

 

Rutschman's costs aren't likely that crazy.  We may put him in the Lambo category, but he's kind of not, at least in terms of what the biggest contracts look like. It wouldn't be a 350M guarantee.

 

There are starting pitchers they could likely get and sign.  You are allowed to buy low.  I've argued for (and will again) for a guy like Woodruff on a deal like Luis Castillo got (I also argued for Castillo).  You may be able to get Corbin Burnes for 2024, but you aren't likely to extend him.  That's OK.  Build a plan to win Now and Later.  Every piece doesn't have to be a high dollars extension.  I'd actually argue I never want to have to bribe a guy to be here. Part of winning is you have to want to be here. 

 

We could easily work extensions for Hays, Mullins and Santander.  We don't actually need Cowser or Kjerstad for anything.  We won 101 games without either one.  If you want to use one or both, whatever, not required, but build the roster you want to win with.  We trade Santander and keep Hays and Mullins as part of the fabric of this team going forward.  That's not about Lambo's.

 

If Holliday and Henderson want to play on the left side of the infield together for the next 8 years, they can make that happen.  They won't, but that's about their choices, not the Orioles.

 

The sort term (slide response above) and longer term approaches are completely different.

[Mike in STL]

I think this comment (and others) are misplaced for different reasons.

 

John Angelos has a different problem.  You want him to (or ding him for not) spending money but most are finally coming around to the notion that this is a game about transition with MLB. 

 

If John Angelos somehow survives transition in ownership, I don't think he cares about spending more money.  They problem now is he needs the resources to backstop the issue (financial resiliency) MLB will use to not approve transition.  That's One Gate.  Once (iF) he passes that, the Orioles are a cash tree.  He can still take 50M off the team annually and build up his personal wealth, etc, and still spend 120-150M on the Orioles.

 

The issue then isn't so much "will he spend?", it's who's in charge of doing that, because at that point, John Angelos will do publicly what he's done in the shadows in the past.  He wants to be that guy because he thinks he can be that guy and that will likely have some 3+4=5 type consequences.

Don't over think this, dude. 

 

John is a pretend real estate mogul with a baseball team as a side hustle. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Peter will probably live to be 138 years old, so, cross the transition bridge when we get there. 

[Mike in STL]

The Orioles don't need a Lambo.  I don't really think anyone is asking for one.

 

The Rangers got nothing out of DeGrom or the Scherzer trade and they no longer are the longest tenured MLB Team without a Championship.  The Mets had Verlander AND Scherzer and finished under .500.  The Yankees have Gerritt Cole and Aaron Judge and were watching the WC round.  The Padres were everyone's darlings to Win and despite trying to stack up an All-Star Team, watched the WC round with the Yankees.

 

Rutschman's costs aren't likely that crazy.  We may put him in the Lambo category, but he's kind of not, at least in terms of what the biggest contracts look like. It wouldn't be a 350M guarantee.

 

There are starting pitchers they could likely get and sign.  You are allowed to buy low.  I've argued for (and will again) for a guy like Woodruff on a deal like Luis Castillo got (I also argued for Castillo).  You may be able to get Corbin Burnes for 2024, but you aren't likely to extend him.  That's OK.  Build a plan to win Now and Later.  Every piece doesn't have to be a high dollars extension.  I'd actually argue I never want to have to bribe a guy to be here. Part of winning is you have to want to be here. 

 

We could easily work extensions for Hays, Mullins and Santander.  We don't actually need Cowser or Kjerstad for anything.  We won 101 games without either one.  If you want to use one or both, whatever, not required, but build the roster you want to win with.  We trade Santander and keep Hays and Mullins as part of the fabric of this team going forward.  That's not about Lambo's.

 

If Holliday and Henderson want to play on the left side of the infield together for the next 8 years, they can make that happen.  They won't, but that's about their choices, not the Orioles.

 

The sort term (slide response above) and longer term approaches are completely different.

Not enough time in the day to go 12 rounds with you. It's a metaphor. Ever heard of it?

 

But I don't care what other teams do, or have, and where they finished. The team should seek to acquire better players where they have needs, or platoons. If you disagree, there is nothing to discuss.

[Slidemaster]

I think this comment (and others) are misplaced for different reasons.

John Angelos has a different problem. You want him to (or ding him for not) spending money but most are finally coming around to the notion that this is a game about transition with MLB.

If John Angelos somehow survives transition in ownership, I don't think he cares about spending more money. They problem now is he needs the resources to backstop the issue (financial resiliency) MLB will use to not approve transition. That's One Gate. Once (iF) he passes that, the Orioles are a cash tree. He can still take 50M off the team annually and build up his personal wealth, etc, and still spend 120-150M on the Orioles.

The issue then isn't so much "will he spend?", it's who's in charge of doing that, because at that point, John Angelos will do publicly what he's done in the shadows in the past. He wants to be that guy because he thinks he can be that guy and that will likely have some 3+4=5 type consequences.

I think you're making this far more complex than it is. I don't blame you. It's more interesting if it's complex, but just because it's more engaging to discuss doesn't mean that it's any more true.

John Angelo's is a cheap son of a bitch who couldn't care less about winning a World Series when compared to turning a profit. The Orioles have not been huge players in free agency in almost two decades, and they have very little history of signing their young stars to extensions. As I recall, both Gunnar and Adley are Boras clients. Both are likely looking at hundreds of millions of dollars when they hit the open market, and there's not a snowball's chance in hell they're going to take less than that from the orioles, nor is there a chance the Orioles offer it. We should enjoy them both for the next couple of years before they're traded in year five of their contracts to make room for the next round of young players that will take their place. This is the way the Orioles are going to operate. It sucks and I hate it, but that's life.

[makoman]

I think you're making this far more complex than it is. I don't blame you. It's more interesting if it's complex, but just because it's more engaging to discuss doesn't mean that it's any more true.

John Angelo's is a cheap son of a bitch who couldn't care less about winning a World Series when compared to turning a profit. The Orioles have not been huge players in free agency in almost two decades, and they have very little history of signing their young stars to extensions. As I recall, both Gunnar and Adley are Boras clients. Both are likely looking at hundreds of millions of dollars when they hit the open market, and there's not a snowball's chance in hell they're going to take less than that from the orioles, nor is there a chance the Orioles offer it. We should enjoy them both for the next couple of years before they're traded in year five of their contracts to make room for the next round of young players that will take their place. This is the way the Orioles are going to operate. It sucks and I hate it, but that's life.

None of them cost what Adley/Gunnar/Holliday likely will cost, but they did sign Mora, Roberts, Markakis, and Jones to extensions, signed Davis as a FA, and apparently tried with Machado. If anything I think they are more likely to sign their own than a big free agent.

 

Adley isn't a Boras guy, but it's getting to be too late.

[bmore_ken]

None of them cost what Adley/Gunnar/Holliday likely will cost, but they did sign Mora, Roberts, Markakis, and Jones to extensions, signed Davis as a FA, and apparently tried with Machado. If anything I think they are more likely to sign their own than a big free agent.

Adley isn't a Boras guy, but it's getting to be too late.

Those guys are chump change to what Adley will cost

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I really only have one pretty big issue with any extensions at this point. The FO is going to be very tight with the budget (from what we have seen so far) so any extensions are likely to come at the option to increase payroll for outside additions. IF that ended up being the case I would much prefer to use more money to go after some additional pieces (and yes we have trade pieces but still going to have to take on some salary in most cases). I think that money is better spent to make the team better over the next handful of years (3-5) than trying to tie up pieces beyond their current control times.