86 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Dude you write at length about all the reasons to not use Holliday before September. But you skip right over the most obvious reason to put him on the roster prior to September.

 

Win freaking baseball games. 

Dude doesn't think he will be appreciably better than the alternatives this year because of youth and inexperience. If he's barely better than guys like Ortiz and Westburg in 2024, might as well get an extra year on the back end when he's in his prime.

 

He'll be approximately 20 and 4 months on OD. Gunnar was ~21 and 2 months when he debuted. Carroll was 22 when he debuted. They were HS draftees and #1/#2 prospects.

 

I don't have a problem with that argument. I don't agree that it's "entirely unlikely that he can produce" what Frazier and Mateo did, I.e. can't manage a 700 OPS, but I want to wait and see how spring goes. If you think he has a chance at a breakout 5 WAR year you obviously want him on the team.

[dude]

Dude you write at length about all the reasons to not use Holliday before September. But you skip right over the most obvious reason to put him on the roster prior to September.

 

Win freaking baseball games. 

 

If the betting line for Holliday performance in 2024 was...

 

35-doubles, 4-triples, 20-hrs, 117-runs, 94-rbi and 43-sb

 

​Are you taking the over or the under?

[dude]

... but I want to wait and see how spring goes.

 

Why would weight Spring Training in that way?

[Mackus]

If the betting line for Holliday performance in 2024 was...

35-doubles, 4-triples, 20-hrs, 117-runs, 94-rbi and 43-sb

​Are you taking the over or the under?

Is he gonna get 800 PA like those two guys got to produce those counting stats?

Seems like an unfair question without that context.

[Mackus]

I'd bet on Holliday to be above the 657 OPS that Frazier and Mateo combined for. Probably would pick over the 696 that Frazier put up solo as well.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean he couldnt just throw out the combined OPS of .657 as the over/under because well of course he couldnt. Par for the course though. Dishonest was the right wording.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'd bet on Holliday to be above the 657 OPS that Frazier and Mateo combined for. Probably would pick over the 696 that Frazier put up solo as well.

This. Nothing to add.

[makoman]

Why would weight Spring Training in that way?

Not stats. You can tell a lot based just on how he looks I would think (not us, we won't see him, but the staff). Like you said he may still be growing and adjusting to that, so you can see how that goes. See if he looks ML ready on defense yet. He's still at an age where he could make a significant jump from working over the winter, you can see if that happened. But the default should be go back to AAA for at least a little bit, the burden is on him to show he should stay.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think everyone understands that you should try to get the 7th year out of Holliday. Obv if he comes up in May or June and has a good year you prob lose the 7th year and a 1st round pick but its a risk you should always take. It will work itself out. They have enough in house talent that they certainly shouldnt be considering Frazier again. Nor should Mateo be in the mix for any regular PT. As an arb 2 guy who isnt gonna hit or get reg time Mateo should be traded or non tendered. He could fill a uti role but there are other cheaper options in house.

[dude]

I'd bet on Holliday to be above the 657 OPS that Frazier and Mateo combined for. Probably would pick over the 696 that Frazier put up solo as well.

 

Everyone seems to hate the .657 OPS (.607/.696) OPS those guys combined for, but the fact is that they were actually pretty productive despite the lower OPS. 

 

I'm good with OPS, but production still matters.  

 

People seem to look at Holliday and assume there's no downside in his 2024 performance...as if 18 games at AAA or 255 PAs above A+ means something in terms of 2024 MLB performance.

[dude]

This. Nothing to add.

You (anybody) have yet to make any argument for

2024 Holliday = 2024 Winning

[makoman]

You (anybody) have yet to make any argument for

2024 Holliday = 2024 Winning

Better players = more winning.

 

You seem to think he should have around a 650 OPS next year. Yes, if that's the case he should not be in the majors. If he's not better than Westburg or Ortiz or Urias there's no reason for him to be in the majors at 20.

 

But it's not like 20 year olds have never been good. Acuna and Tatis were just fine and were valuable debuting at 20. Is it a huge difference that they had more pro experience due to being international? Maybe, but they too didn't have a lot of higher level experience. And if you're the #1 prospect in baseball then hopefully those kinds of guys are within your range of outcomes. 

[mweb08]

I don't think there's any reason compelling enough to favor him breaking camp with the O's rather than getting that extra year down the line. Not even close really.

He's only played 36 games at AA and 18 in AAA. Plus there's reports that his defense could use some more development.

Ortiz is legit ready on the other hand and should get legit opportunity to start 2024, here or elsewhere. Norby pretty much too, but I'm less adamant regarding him.

[Mackus]

You (anybody) have yet to make any argument for

2024 Holliday = 2024 Winning

You're asking somebody to prove that adding Holliday early in the year guarantees a winning season? Why? How would one do such a thing for any player?

[Mackus]

Nobody is quitting 2024 because we lost Felix, and he was one of the best and most impactful players on the team. You don't have to have any one guy. But there is ample reason to think that Jackson Holliday may be one of our best three infielders next season.

[Mackus]

Everyone seems to hate the .657 OPS (.607/.696) OPS those guys combined for, but the fact is that they were actually pretty productive despite the lower OPS.

I'm good with OPS, but production still matters.

People seem to look at Holliday and assume there's no downside in his 2024 performance...as if 18 games at AAA or 255 PAs above A+ means something in terms of 2024 MLB performance.

What are you talking about?

OPS is performance, it several counting stats weighted and combined as a rate over a period of time rather than quoting two players full season combined counting stats.

[mweb08]

Nobody is quitting 2024 because we lost Felix, and he was one of the best and most impactful players on the team. You don't have to have any one guy. But there is ample reason to think that Jackson Holliday may be one of our best three infielders next season.

There is also reason to think that Ortiz may be as good or better for the first half of 2024 as Holliday. If there's any sort of reasonable debate about this sort of thing, the 20 year old elite prospect who they won't be extending shouldn't be using up one of his 6 years of club control.

So sure, dude has some questionable elements of his argument, but overall, his conclusion is correct.

[BobPhelan]

There is also reason to think that Ortiz may be as good or better for the first half of 2024 as Holliday. If there's any sort of reasonable debate about this sort of thing, the 20 year old elite prospect who they won't be extending shouldn't be using up one of his 6 years of club control.

So sure, dude has some questionable elements of his argument, but overall, his conclusion is correct.

Except he thinks he will be in the minors until September which I would put a lot of money on July at the latest.

I think he has a real chance to win a job out of spring training, Mayo too. But I think May would be the betting favorite month.

[dude]

FTR, my thoughts are an opinion, not a prediction.

 

This thread is looking at the 2024 alignment for those 3 positions.

 

I'd buffer the HS draft pick with one year in the minors for another season with [suggestion] because I'm not paying the other consequences with no real expectations of improving performance, service or cost....and I'm not trading a developmental season (because that is what it will be regardless of the level he plays at) for a better developed season in the future when you can guarantee you are getting no considerat5ion for treating a player more aggressively.

 

Comical there's push-back on that.  The Orioles will do whatever they want to do.

 

fwiw, I'd be concerned that if Holliday starts the season in Baltimore, that's more about John Angelos (total costs and trying to ally some relationship with Boras). 

[makoman]

FTR, my thoughts are an opinion, not a prediction.

 

This thread is looking at the 2024 alignment for those 3 positions.

 

I'd buffer the HS draft pick with one year in the minors for another season with [suggestion] because I'm not paying the other consequences with no real expectations of improving performance, service or cost....and I'm not trading a developmental season (because that is what it will be regardless of the level he plays at) for a better developed season in the future when you can guarantee you are getting no considerat5ion for treating a player more aggressively.

 

Comical there's push-back on that.  The Orioles will do whatever they want to do.

 

fwiw, I'd be concerned that if Holliday starts the season in Baltimore, that's more about John Angelos (total costs and trying to ally some relationship with Boras). 

I think you mostly got push back because you said September. It sounded artificial and like the baseball part didn't matter at all, and as O's fans we are conditioned for cheapness being a bigger part of any decision than baseball. Yes that would put him closer to and still ahead of the Gunnar track, which is already an advanced track, but he's basically a level ahead of where Gunnar was (barely reached AA in 2021). Most people don't expect him to make the team on opening day. I wouldn't have given it a second thought if you just said he'd be up at some point this year, and I have no issue with the underlying reasoning that he's barely played, hasn't proven he's ready yet, and the year on the back end is more important, though coming up in May vs September doesn't greatly change the service time unless he gets ROY consideration. I also don't think that he'd be worse than Mateo/Frazier this year.