86 replies to this topic

[dude]

Another fairly straightforward set of decisions heading into 2024.  There's only really one decision to make and that is determine/project the timing for Holliday's debut.  Henderson and Westburg should be written in pen for 2 of the positions.  We may not know which positions everyone will be in, but they should be the starting point.

 

Unless Holliday is giving you a year on the back end (discussed elsewhere) there's really zero reasons for him to make a 2024 debut before September.  A September debut (still at 20) leaves him in place as the Game's top prospect, sets him up best for RoY in 2025 with the associated benefit of the draft pick if he gets it.  It could also give the Orioles some more clarity for the IF alignment.  While anything can happen, there's no realistic scenario where you need his 2024 performance to accomplish something. I'm not trading 2024 for 2030 and nobody should. 

 

The only question should be how you bridge to Holliday in September.

 

I hate the idea of developing players to develop the next play and you always have to make decisions so while some want to see guys like Ortiz or Norby, I don't.

 

How about bridging to Holliday with a player that had 720 ABs with 35-doubles, 4-triples, 20-hrs, 117-runs, 94-rbi and 43-sb last season.  Sound OK?  That 'player' is one that everyone can't wait to get rid of.  Both Mateo and Frazier entered 2023 expecting to be the starters.  I want them to buy into more of the platoon role.

 

SS/3B Henderson

3B/2B Westburg

2B/SS Frazier/Mateo

 

Mateo is controlled through ARB if they want.  Frazier may have some options and there's more than one way to think about a contract with him.  Without getting into it, his negotiation this offseason will be different than last offseason.

 

I wouldn't put Mateo in a straight bench role and I doubt they pay him ARB2 to do that.  If you aren't going to (at a minimum) platoon him in a role for 350-400 PAs, then trade him.  If I was going to trade him, MIA was 30th in SS-OPS last year and he'd be a good fit to provide them some improvement/stability for a year or 2.

 

If Mateo were traded/released seems like Urias/Vavra would be the least effort Oriole answer in some version of the Frazier/Mateo role described above.

 

While a generally like to leave guys (more or less) in one spot, given some variance in where we think Henderson and Holliday wind up in 2025, I'd run 2024 pushing them between respective positions like they did much of this year.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They will get the 7th year with Holliday but he is making his debut before Sept if he is healthy and productive. You can write that in pen. Its hilarious seeing someone angle for a Frazier return. Its hilarious seeing someone argue for Mateo getting significant PT. There is a scnario where Mateo is kept and is a uti guy. There is no scenario where Frazier returns. Btw I dont think Mateo or Urias will be back. Traded and or non tendered. They should be targeting a guy like Justin Turner in FA but if they dont then they will find a way to work the likes of Mayo, Ortiz, and eventually Holliday into the 2b/3b mix. This of course assumes Gunnar is the every day SS which is likely at this point.

[BobPhelan]

Mayo, Gunnar, Holliday

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Mayo, Gunnar, Holliday

Not to start the year. Its the same problem as last year. You have to bring these guys along. Not put pressure on them in April and May. The way the handled Westburg this year was outstanding. Do that more often. Dont put all this pressure on the young guys to perform out the gate. You camt afford to have two Colton Cowser '23 playing every day.

[mdrunning]

Joey Ortiz needs to be in the mix somewhere. He could be the super-utility guy if Holliday is indeed better suited for second and Gunnar becomes the full-time shortstop. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Not even gong to bother with my opinion since Dude has so eloquently decided that there is no reason that you'd ever bring Holliday up before September.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Not even gong to bother with my opinion since Dude has so eloquently decided that there is no reason that you'd ever bring Holliday up before September.

Hes wrong and clearly wrong. Not that thats surprising

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Joey Ortiz needs to be in the mix somewhere. He could be the super-utility guy if Holliday is indeed better suited for second and Gunnar becomes the full-time shortstop.

Ortiz may be squeezed out. But I still got love for Joey even if hes not a regular. They need to figure out what to do with the excess Inf talent they have.

[BobPhelan]

Not to start the year. Its the same problem as last year. You have to bring these guys along. Not put pressure on them in April and May. The way the handled Westburg this year was outstanding. Do that more often. Dont put all this pressure on the young guys to perform out the gate. You camt afford to have two Colton Cowser '23 playing every day.

 

I think it depends on how they feel during spring training. Most likely only one of them will be ready out of the gate but 19 turning 20 and 21 turning 22 can see some serious development gains over an offseason so not ruling it out. But by mid-season it should be possible.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Henderson 3rd
Ortiz SS
Westburg 2nd

How do Ortiz and Westburg play the first few months?

Does Holiday look ready defensively for SS by June?

Kjerstad and Mayo eventually largely at 1st / DH.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Gunnar/Holliday/Westburg in whatever positions work the best on Opening Day, Urias stays around for utility duties, Ortiz/Norby you call for any starting pitcher worth a damn you can trade for this offseason

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Urias is totally irrelevant. He brings nothing

[makoman]

Gunnar/Holliday/Westburg in whatever positions work the best on Opening Day, Urias stays around for utility duties, Ortiz/Norby you call for any starting pitcher worth a damn you can trade for this offseason

If they think Holliday can win ROY, and why not, they’ll give him every opportunity to make the team. They could have just left him at Bowie to end the year if there was no shot or they wanted to slow play him a little. I wouldn’t mind getting an extra year but you risk losing that anyway if he does well, unless you plan to keep him down a few months.

[mdrunning]

Urias is totally irrelevant. He brings nothing

Which why I'd rather have Ortiz, particularly from the third base position where you need some power. Urias doesn't provide much of that, and I think his defense suffered this year when he became more of a part-time player.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If they think Holliday can win ROY, and why not, they’ll give him every opportunity to make the team. They could have just left him at Bowie to end the year if there was no shot or they wanted to slow play him a little. I wouldn’t mind getting an extra year but you risk losing that anyway if he does well, unless you plan to keep him down a few months.

If he is that great in ST then sure let him start the year as the 2b and let him roll like you let Gunnar roll last year. Otherwise work him in like Westburg. Bring him up maybe late May. Limit his chances of finishing 2nd in ROY. If hes that great and he overcomes 2 months of AAA to win it and you lose a year then that cant be the worst thing in the world.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Urias is a league-average hitter who can field multiple positions, I think people are just bored of him compared to wanting to see a top-100 prospect but there's no reason to get rid of someone who can offer you that off the bench 

[mweb08]

I think with the way the O's operate, they shouldn't burn a service year on Holliday or Mayo. I think that holding them back would be a reasonable decision for both based on their development track. Meanwhile I think it's time to either start Ortiz or trade him.

With that said, pick between Ortiz and Westburg and trade the other or commit to starting both of them with Gunnar for at least roughly the first half of the season and then reevaluate.

Norby is also a trade candidate. This also relates to dude's closer thread as the O's could trade from this strength for a Devin Williams or another difference maker.

I also have no issue with bringing Urias back as either a good utility player or as a bridge to Holliday or Mayo. I agree with Rose that he's a solid player even if unexciting.

[dude]

Not even gong to bother with my opinion since Dude has so eloquently decided that there is no reason that you'd ever bring Holliday up before September.

 

You're welcome to share the argument that he should be up before September.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

There is a scenario where you move multiple AAA guys and there is room for Urias but thats not very realistic. Hes just useless to this Os team. I cant say it enough. Trade him for something. Hes def a guy where despite the Os being in a window of contention Im good trading him for prospects. Even if its a guy or two thats years away. Hes not needed here anymore. In a perfect world Westburg takes over the Urias role next year. Now, they may hand Jordan the fulltime gig at 2b or 3b but to me hes better as super uti guy. I suspect Westburg gets reg status and Ortiz may be the uti guy. For me it would be sign a 3b on a 1 yr deal. Leave 2b to start for Westburg with Holliday eventually in the mix. Ortiz is the uti guy to start. If things go great and Westburg is more of the super uti and Hollidaythe 2b then you deal with not having a spot for Joey. More likely rhere are injuries or underperformances

[Mackus]

Urias has a role if either Ortiz or Holliday are on the team. But crunch is on if you need a SS eligible backup infielder.

I don't mind him as a four to eight week stopgap to Holliday debuting either. Think I'd lean Ortiz, but going Urias at 3B for a while would be fine.