86 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

No we need to be over Urias. We need a Justin Turner in here. That hitting upgrade is massive. I aint asking for Matt Chapman here. The Os need offense from a righty and 3b is the perfect spot. You could do it at DH but it takes away from versatility. Urias doesnt give you what you need.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

To me if you cant sign or trade for a nice righty 3b you are better off keeping Mateo over Urias. Hes more explosive. Yeah hes ony a SS but Gunnar can move. So can Westburg. Ideally there is no room for either guy. You sign or trade for a 3b and you work in Westburg, Holliday, Ortiz between between the 2b job and uti job. Mayo may eventually enter the 3b/DH/1b picture. Norby is the guy that I just dont see any path.

[mweb08]

There is a scenario where you move multiple AAA guys and there is room for Urias but thats not very realistic. Hes just useless to this Os team. I cant say it enough. Trade him for something. Hes def a guy where despite the Os being in a window of contention Im good trading him for prospects. Even if its a guy or two thats years away. Hes not needed here anymore. In a perfect world Westburg takes over the Urias role next year. Now, they may hand Jordan the fulltime gig at 2b or 3b but to me hes better as super uti guy. I suspect Westburg gets reg status and Ortiz may be the uti guy. For me it would be sign a 3b on a 1 yr deal. Leave 2b to start for Westburg with Holliday eventually in the mix. Ortiz is the uti guy to start. If things go great and Westburg is more of the super uti and Hollidaythe 2b then you deal with not having a spot for Joey. More likely rhere are injuries or underperformances

I'd be fine with trading him depending on what else they do, but I don't think it's hard to imagine a role for him next year.

We agree that Holliday shouldn't start next year with the O's, so if that's the case you either bridge to him with a player like Urias (doesn't have to be him) or you plan on keeping him down for quite some time unless circumstances dictate calling him up. I don't think it makes sense to consider Westburg or Ortiz a bridge to Holliday. If either is not viewed as a longterm starter, then make a trade. Otherwise, give them a legit run in the starting lineup. There's no need to use a very good prospect as a super utility player imo given that there's no real need for that role if Gunnar, Ortiz, and Holliday are the starters. You want each of those guys playing pretty much everyday and there's not much of a platoon benefit there either.

If you want to start Gunnar, Ortiz, and Westburg then that's cool, and Urias can be the main reserve (or Mateo, or someone else, but let's not waste a good prospect in this role). You wouldn't really need the player to be able to play SS either given that all 3 starters can play SS.

My preference is to trade one of Westburg or Ortiz and bridge to Holliday/Mayo.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Well itll be interesting to see how it shakes out. There is undeniably glut there. Not really glut in a bad way. Its just overcrowded. Thats the better word. Multiple players have to be traded or potentially non tendered. Which is why the plan by one poster above to bring back Frazier and have him in the mix is just beyond baffling.

[mweb08]

Westburg makes sense imo as a super utility infielder in some situations. I don't think one of those situations is on a roster with the rookie of the year and #1 prospect in baseball from the prior year playing the same positions and another roughly equivalent IF prospect on the team that bats from the same side of the plate.

Trust in Elias to trade the right one for the right return.

[russsnyder]

Holliday seems to be on the fast track to the majors. If he has a strong spring, I can see him beaking camp with the Orioles. I really don't care how old he is, if he's ready, let him play. I'm fine with Mateo in a utility role because of his ability to play short. I'd also prefer to give Ortiz Urias' spot on the roster at this point.

[russsnyder]

Westburg makes sense imo as a super utility infielder in some situations. I don't think one of those situations is on a roster with the rookie of the year and #1 prospect in baseball from the prior year playing the same positions and another roughly equivalent IF prospect on the team that bats from the same side of the plate.

Trust in Elias to trade the right one for the right return.

I think it's telling that Westburg did not play short at all once he was promoted to the Orioles. IMO, you are not a super utility player in the majors if you can't play short at the major league level I'm fine with Westburg getting the lion's share of PT at second and filling in at third on occasion. I think the left side of the infield will likely be Holliday & Henderson in 2024.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think it's telling that Westburg did not play short at all once he was promoted to the Orioles. IMO, you are not a super utility player in the majors if you can't play short at the major league level I'm fine with Westburg getting the lion's share of PT at second and filling in at third on occasion. I think the left side of the infield will likely be Holliday & Henderson in 2024.

I don't think Westburg will ever get an extended run at SS, but I think he could get games there.  Wasn't going to happen in '23 with the roster he joined. Have always seen him as a 2nd and 3rd guy though.

[weird-O]

I am adamantly against holding a player back to gain more control. If JH is ready next spring, call him up. As a fan, I want to see the best players asap. Those who prefer stunting player development/promotion, aren't fans. They're just people who like to play make believe GM in their headspace.  

[makoman]

I am adamantly against holding a player back to gain more control. If JH is ready next spring, call him up. As a fan, I want to see the best players asap. Those who prefer stunting player development/promotion, aren't fans. They're just people who like to play make believe GM in their headspace.  

People who care more about two weeks from a 20 year old rookie (that doesn't stunt development at all) than an entire year of a 27 year old in their prime aren't fans. They just want immediate gratification and can't see the big picture. See, I can be disparaging too.

[Mackus]

I am adamantly against holding a player back to gain more control. If JH is ready next spring, call him up. As a fan, I want to see the best players asap. Those who prefer stunting player development/promotion, aren't fans. They're just people who like to play make believe GM in their headspace.

Strong disagree. I'll take control of him for all of 2030 over rostering him for the first two weeks of 2023. It's barely any time lost.

Wouldn't be as adamant if the Orioles weren't such cheap trash. But clock starts ticking on Holliday and there is no hope for an extension, much like Gunnar. I'll wear the embarrassment and keep him around an extra year. Though maybe you lose that anyways if he has a ROY finish like Rutschman did.

Absolutely against holding back for Super-2 reasons, but a year of control is wildly valuable. Especially so fora guy who is off the 40-man and would only need to be down like two weeks max to avoid reading 172 days.

Guess I'm not a fan...eyeroll.

[mweb08]

Holliday isn't even a clear 'He's ready' dude. Obviously there's more that goes into being ready than what I'm about to say, but he's only played 54 games above A ball. He also didn't crush AAA pitching in his brief time there and there's speculation that he's not ready to play SS in the Bigs yet.

So I think it's pretty justifiable to start him in AAA next year, and not just for long enough to get an extra service year either.

[mweb08]

I think it's worse from a treatment perspective to not open up opportunity for both Ortiz and Westburg, guys that have earned real run and will be in their age 25 seasons next year.

[SonicAttack]

JH would need to have an eye-poppingly great ST for him to be with the O's on opening day.  Gunnar, Westburg, most likely Mountcastle then maybe Mayo, Ortiz, Kjerstad - Urias or Matos?  Will Norby shine this ST?

Are Frazier and O'Hearn out?  probably at least one of them.  I guess McCann is back. 

[weird-O]

People who care more about two weeks from a 20 year old rookie (that doesn't stunt development at all) than an entire year of a 27 year old in their prime aren't fans. They just want immediate gratification and can't see the big picture. See, I can be disparaging too.

 

 

Strong disagree. I'll take control of him for all of 2030 over rostering him for the first two weeks of 2023. It's barely any time lost.

Wouldn't be as adamant if the Orioles weren't such cheap trash. But clock starts ticking on Holliday and there is no hope for an extension, much like Gunnar. I'll wear the embarrassment and keep him around an extra year. Though maybe you lose that anyways if he has a ROY finish like Rutschman did.

Absolutely against holding back for Super-2 reasons, but a year of control is wildly valuable. Especially so fora guy who is off the 40-man and would only need to be down like two weeks max to avoid reading 172 days.

Guess I'm not a fan...eyeroll.

You guys are making a totally different argument. The proposal was to leave him in the minors until Sept. at the earliest, Correct? That is much more than 2 weeks. Otherwise, yes, it would be foolish to trade a year of team control for 2 weeks of playing time. 

[weird-O]

Holliday isn't even a clear 'He's ready' dude. Obviously there's more that goes into being ready than what I'm about to say, but he's only played 54 games above A ball. He also didn't crush AAA pitching in his brief time there and there's speculation that he's not ready to play SS in the Bigs yet.

So I think it's pretty justifiable to start him in AAA next year, and not just for long enough to get an extra service year either.

That's why I specifically mentioned "if JH is ready next spring". I'm not arguing for him to break camp with the team, just to bring him up for opening day.  

[makoman]

You guys are making a totally different argument. The proposal was to leave him in the minors until Sept. at the earliest, Correct? That is much more than 2 weeks. Otherwise, yes, it would be foolish to trade a year of team control for 2 weeks of playing time. 

It seemed like you were talking about any playing of the service time game at all, so sorry if I was too harsh in reacting because that didn't seem like a fair take. I too don't agree with the idea that leaving him until September is reasonable, if he's ready in April. If he seems ready in spring training I think it would be justifiable to put him on the opening day roster or leave him down for a little bit. September would be giving him a year's worth of time in AAA just because, which they haven't done with anybody who seemed pretty clearly ready except maybe Westburg. Rushing a guy through 4 levels in one year then leaving him in AAA for a year doesn't seem justifiable. If they were looking at 2025 rookie like dude says they would have just slowed him down more last year.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Consider the source on some of these ideas. Ill leave it at that.

[dude]

I wanted to address these comments.

I am adamantly against holding a player back to gain more control. If JH is ready next spring, call him up. As a fan, I want to see the best players asap. Those who prefer stunting player development/promotion, aren't fans. They're just people who like to play make believe GM in their headspace.  

You guys are making a totally different argument. The proposal was to leave him in the minors until Sept. at the earliest, Correct? That is much more than 2 weeks. Otherwise, yes, it would be foolish to trade a year of team control for 2 weeks of playing time. 

 

How did you determine he was ready?  He's had ONE full season in the minors moving across 3 levels.  Spring Training is meaningless.  No idea why people want to use Spring Training as some generator of significant outcomes.

 

Let me back up for a second.  I've said this many times.  My basic rule is get to AA as reasonable as development allows and then my assessment is over 500+ AA/AAA PAs.  Holliday has about half that.  He won't get over 500 until sometime later this summer so he's not an early 2024 plan and you have to already make decisions, not just wait around 2-4 months hoping you get what you want.

 

I'm not promoting him in July wasting his value in terms of MiL ranking, RoY opportunity and any development.  September is the earliest because it's the first window for the gates he needs to achieve.

 

It's comical to see language like "holding him back".  He was a HS draftee.  Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson will win RoY this year as HS draftees in 2019.  They both spent THREE YEARS in  the minors.  Bobby Witt was rushed to the Majors (for stupid narrative reasons) and he spent TWO+ YEARS in the minors.  Somehow....Jackson Holliday is owed his MLB debut at age 20 with ONE full season in the minors?

 

He's 20.  His body is likely still growing which means you absolutely need time to smooth mechanics as your body physically changes.  You need to learn to play with your physical strength.  Learn to work through the grind of full-season Leagues.  He hasn't done anything yet.

 

Look at the combined stat lines of Mateo and Frazier in the lead post.  We hate their performance (part of a 101 win team) and can't wait to dump those clowns (part of a 101 win team) but it's entirely unlikely Holliday can produce that type of line in 2024.  Eventually he may be awesome (we'll find out) but why would anyone think he's going to show up at 20 with one season in the minors and be some kind of a hammer?

 

Hey, maybe he is, but the cost of finding out is at least one season when you expect a fully operational player.  Holliday has made his choices on how he wants to conduct his contractual carrer and that's fine, that's his choice, but he is absolutely not (100%) going to reward you (the Team or the fans) later for accepting his development risk early.

 

You want to say I don't know that he's ready? Cool...how do you know he is?  You want to push for a case where there's almost no chance for reward.  Not for winning in 2024.  Not for total Service.  Not for Cost. 

 

All risk, no reward, seems like a really dumb approach. 

 

I could possibly live with lesser performance in developmental years (if I didn't think it was going to negatively impact you longer term) but I'm not trading developed years for developmental years.  Just dumb, especially when the player has already told you, you get nothing later.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude you write at length about all the reasons to not use Holliday before September. But you skip right over the most obvious reason to put him on the roster prior to September.

 

Win freaking baseball games.