36 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hays defense is already starting to slip a bit and he's only 28.

Defensive numbers were up this year.

[BaltBird 24]

Defensive numbers were up this year.

Did rebound a bit from last year. Not as good as 2021, though.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Even if they have slipped a bit who do you put in LF at Camden that is close to as good as SuperHays?

[hallas]

I'd move Hays for BP help. Keep Santander unless you're bowled over by an offer. Ride his bat next year as he booms his way towards the biggest payday of his career. 

 

I feel like you can package Hays for a starter if you add some prospects.  I'm not trading an above average starter for a reliever unless I'm getting Felix Bautista's healthy clone back.

[BobPhelan]

Kjerstad could likely be slotted into the DH/1B/OF role and get plenty of ABs. He offers more pure power, but Cowser still has the better hit tool, OBP, and probably defensive advantage. Should be able to take advantage of both players.

Easily the defensive advantage. Kjerstad is similar to Santander out there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Os have options how they want to proceed this offseason as far as trades. With so many players still under team control or having nothing left to prove in AAA I cant see an offseason where multiple trades arent made.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Os have options how they want to proceed this offseason as far as trades. With so many players still under team control or having nothing left to prove in AAA I cant see an offseason where multiple trades arent made.

I agree but then I didn't think they'd do nothing last offseason either......

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I agree but then I didn't think they'd do nothing last offseason either......

So many of the young guys had not established themselves in either the big leagues or really AAA either. Much different this year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Did rebound a bit from last year. Not as good as 2021, though.

 

LF only: 

 

2021: 

 

5 UZR / 150

4 DRS
-2 OAA

 

2022:

 

6.5 UZR / 150
3 DRS

- 5 OAA

 

2023:

 

7.6 UZR / 150
7 DRS

0 OAA

[bmore_ken]

I agree but then I didn't think they'd do nothing last offseason either......

Bingo!!!!! My worse nightmare is they're going to think they have the perfect team and do nothing again.

[CantonJester]

Tell me how you get enough at bats for these guys:

 

Hays, Santander, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, O"Hearn, and Mountcastle. Especially when you need to DH Adley a fair bit. You simply can't have all those guys on the active roster. 

 

So I think Cowser is the one to go. Others see it differently and thats fine. But you can't have all of these guys in 2024. It won't work.

 

You don't rework your roster to fit a Ryan O'Hearn into the lineup. The chances he just had his career year are pretty significant. 

 

The only way I see it making sense to unload Colton Cowser instead of Austin Hays is if the team that possesses the pitching the O's are adamant to acquire hold out for Cowser's upside over what Hays is now.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

IMO not bringing O'Hearn back would be a monumental mistake. Went out and got a guy who you felt the staff could turn in to a solid player. Player did that in spades. But now you think it was a career year and not repeatable. No I wouldn't sign him long term but am sure as heck keeping him around if I can.

 

And by "you" I talking about the FO.

[CantonJester]

IMO not bringing O'Hearn back would be a monumental mistake. Went out and got a guy who you felt the staff could turn in to a solid player. Player did that in spades. But now you think it was a career year and not repeatable. No I wouldn't sign him long term but am sure as heck keeping him around if I can.

 

And by "you" I talking about the FO.

 

They took a flyer on O'Hearn and they 'hit.' That doesn't mean he won't revert next year (he had four consecutive seasons of OPS ranging from .604-.650). He's a backup first baseman heading into his age 30 season, and the O's are loaded for bear with young talent.

 

The O's won 101 games this year, and possess HFA through the ALCS should they get that far. He's part of that reason.

 

At any rate, the issue will be whether or not he's going to take ABs away from Mountcastle, not blocking guys like Cowser or Kjerstad.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

They took a flyer on O'Hearn and they 'hit.' That doesn't mean he won't revert next year (he had four consecutive seasons of OPS ranging from .604-.650). He's a backup first baseman heading into his age 30 season, and the O's are loaded for bear with young talent.

 

The O's won 101 games this year, and possess HFA through the ALCS should they get that far. He's part of that reason.

 

At any rate, the issue will be whether or not he's going to take ABs away from Mountcastle, not blocking guys like Cowser or Kjerstad.  

Not sure I agree with that last part. There isn't any issue with him taking at bats away from Mountcastle. Mountcastle has an OPS for his career batting against lefties that is 100 points higher than against righties. Ohearn's career OPS is 200 points higher against righties than lefties. A perfect platoon. 

 

But if you keep both of them on the roster I think it makes it very difficult to keep Cowser and Kjertad both unless you jettison Hays or Santander which as I already stated I don't want to do.

 

Its a great problem to have but there are only 26 roster spots and so many at  bats to be had. If you plan to platoon Mountcastle and O'Hearn. The there aren't really many at bats available at 1B for anybody else. Then you have a fair number of at bats at DH that have to go to Adley. So its really hard to see how you can keep 5 OFers around for 3 spots and DH.

[hallas]

LF only: 

 

2021: 

 

5 UZR / 150

4 DRS
-2 OAA

 

2022:

 

6.5 UZR / 150
3 DRS

- 5 OAA

 

2023:

 

7.6 UZR / 150
7 DRS

0 OAA

 

Do you trust him to continue to be an average COF defensively going forward?  His top speed while running is only getting lower, and it feels like he's constantly nursing nagging injuries.  I'm going to assume that the -4 baserunning is an aberration, but even with that I just don't have a lot of faith in him to stay healthy and maintain his performance into his 30s, especially if we're relying on his defense to maintain his value.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Do you trust him to continue to be an average COF defensively going forward?  His top speed while running is only getting lower, and it feels like he's constantly nursing nagging injuries.  I'm going to assume that the -4 baserunning is an aberration, but even with that I just don't have a lot of faith in him to stay healthy and maintain his performance into his 30s, especially if we're relying on his defense to maintain his value.

 

I think he's an above average LF when you throw in his arm.

To answer your question of do I trust him to continue to be average or better in LF going forward, I'd have to ask how long are your asking?

Next year or two? Sure. 

 

I like Hays a lot, but I'd be looking to trade him. 

 

Also feel like I've liked Santander more than most.  Have mentioned before that if he wasn't R5, and he just mashes in the Minors vs. coming up to the Majors when he wasn't ready... think he would have climbed prospect lists and been more appreciated. 

 

Not sure I'd trade both this Winter, but I'd consider it. 

[russsnyder]

Not sure I agree with that last part. There isn't any issue with him taking at bats away from Mountcastle. Mountcastle has an OPS for his career batting against lefties that is 100 points higher than against righties. Ohearn's career OPS is 200 points higher against righties than lefties. A perfect platoon.

But if you keep both of them on the roster I think it makes it very difficult to keep Cowser and Kjertad both unless you jettison Hays or Santander which as I already stated I don't want to do.

Its a great problem to have but there are only 26 roster spots and so many at bats to be had. If you plan to platoon Mountcastle and O'Hearn. The there aren't really many at bats available at 1B for anybody else. Then you have a fair number of at bats at DH that have to go to Adley. So its really hard to see how you can keep 5 OFers around for 3 spots and DH.

I think O'Hearn and Santander provide more versatility than Hays.Hays is a better defender in the OF,but O'Hearn and Santander can play first. That said,I would move Cowser before Hays. I just don't think He's going to hit enough at the MLB level. He looked more overmatched than Stowers IMO.