125 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Shane Bieber vs Undecided  (Voth?)

[Mike B]

Is undecided a left or righty?  

 

I really dislike the idea of going with a bulk reliever here.  I guess Voth goes 4 after someone else opens but why do 88 or 9 innings with a well used pen, when Irvin or someone else could have been summoned.  

Elias has managed the roster strangely this year.

[Mackus]

Akin, Bauman, Givens, and Perez were all off last night.  Baker, Columbe, Cano, and Bautista all pitched last night but none threw more than 20 pitches or were pitching on a 2nd consecutive day, so each could give an inning tonight.  Guessing Kremer would also be available in a total emergency, and then would need to make a move to get a different starter for Friday night.

 

Still think it'd have made sense to get Irvin up here, but they do have the depth available for a BP game today and then off days tomorrow and Monday.

[Mike B]

The Orioles lineup:

 

The outfield defense is going to leave a lot to be desired. 

 

Frazier 2B

Rutschman C

Santander DH

Mountcastle 1B

Henderson 3B

Hicks CF

O'Hearn RF

Mateo SS

McKenna LF

 

Akin P

[Mike B]

I am surprised Hays is out.

[Mike B]

Akin, Bauman, Givens, and Perez were all off last night.  Baker, Columbe, Cano, and Bautista all pitched last night but none threw more than 20 pitches or were pitching on a 2nd consecutive day, so each could give an inning tonight.  Guessing Kremer would also be available in a total emergency, and then would need to make a move to get a different starter for Friday night.

 

Still think it'd have made sense to get Irvin up here, but they do have the depth available for a BP game today and then off days tomorrow and Monday.

I think they had a chance to freshen up a few arms giving them 2 or 3 days off.  It feels like they are doing the exact opposite.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ill wait and see what the eye test say about Hicks D. McKenna is a plus. OHearn is baffling. Just put Santander out there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Akin isnt surprising here. Voth is a guy who is staying here. Akin you send down tomorrow

[makoman]

Irvin was optioned the 21st and pitchers have to stay down 15 days. 

 

Hyde said Hays is under the weather.

[Mackus]

Irvin was optioned the 21st and pitchers have to stay down 15 days.

Hyde said Hays is under the weather.

We just put a guy on the Injured List, which waives that requirement.

[makoman]

We just put a guy on the Injured List, which waives that requirement.

True but they would have had to do it yesterday I would think instead of signing Hicks

 

I also wonder if you can really say a pitcher is replacing a position player. Due to the roster limits they would have had to send a pitcher down too. Then Irvin replaces Mullins and Hicks replaces the pitcher. Seems weird, but maybe it's fine.

[Mackus]

True but they would have had to do it yesterday I would think instead of signing Hicks

I also wonder if you can really say a pitcher is replacing a position player. Due to the roster limits they would have had to send a pitcher down too. Then Irvin replaces Mullins and Hicks replaces the pitcher. Seems weird, but maybe it's fine.

Yeah, that's what they'd have needed to do. Probably Akin down along with Mullins, Hicks and Irvin added.

[BaltBird 24]

What's up with Bieber? His K numbers have gone from astronomical down to below average levels almost overnight.

[Mackus]

What's up with Bieber? His K numbers have gone from astronomical down to below average levels almost overnight.

 

Seems more like a continuation of a trend, to me.

 

2020 / 14.2 per 9 / 41%

2021 / 12.5 per 9 / 33%

2022 / 8.9 per 9 / 25%

2023 / 6.2 per 9 / 17%

 

Obviously 2020 and 2023 so far are smaller samples.  He only pitched half the year in 2021 as well.  Despite the lowering Ks, his excellent ERA has been matched by an excellent FIP/xFIP through last season.  This year the ERA still great, but the estimators are a bit higher so far.

[BaltBird 24]

Seems more like a continuation of a trend, to me.

2020 / 14.2 per 9 / 41%
2021 / 12.5 per 9 / 33%
2022 / 8.9 per 9 / 25%
2023 / 6.2 per 9 / 17%

Obviously 2020 and 2023 so far are smaller samples. He only pitched half the year in 2021 as well. Despite the lowering Ks, his excellent ERA has been matched by an excellent FIP/xFIP through last season. This year the ERA still great, but the estimators are a bit higher so far.

To go from 12.5/9 to 6.2/9 in 2 years still seems like a gigantic drop, especially for a guy still in his mid to late 20s. Maybe he's trying to cut down on the Ks to limit pitches and stay healthy?

[Mackus]

To go from 12.5/9 to 6.2/9 in 2 years still seems like a gigantic drop, especially for a guy still in his mid to late 20s. Maybe he's trying to cut down on the Ks to limit pitches and stay healthy?

Can't speak to his intent, but my opinion is that reducing Ks doesn't usually reduce pitch counts precipitously. Reducing baserunners (hits or walks) is the driver there. Certainly a batted out is typically more pitch efficient than a K, but a K is an out 100% of the time (ignoring rare dropped third strikes) compared to a batted ball that is a hit like 30% of the time. I think pitchers can seek soft contact, but its harder to control and do consistently than is trying to miss bats entirely.

Bieber as a specific test case of this, is down a decent bit on pitches/batter from 2020 (4.17 to 3.63) when he was at a ridiculous K-rate, but his 2022/2023 pitches per PA are consistent at 3.63 and down only very slightly from 3.85 in 2021. His pitches per inning have fallen from about 16 in both 2020 and 2021 to 14.375 in 2022 and just under 15 this season. Put another way, despite his K-rate dropping nearly in half from 2021 to 2023 his pitches per batter and pitches per inning has only reduced by about 7-8%. And despite the K-rate dropping by over 80% from his peak in 2020 to 2023, his pitches per batter are only reduced about 13% and pitches per inning by about 7%.

 

(all this math was done hastily, so may have some errors, think the overall point will remain)

[Mackus]

This is close on the review, Ramirez may have already gotten to 2nd when Mateo let it go, which would mean he gets awarded home on the overthrow.  Seems like a horrible job of backup by Akin, btw, although it was deflected a bit by Rutschman.

 

He stays at third.  Hopefully Akin can strand him.

[Mackus]

Nice, Akin works out of it.  Just the 1 run.

[Mackus]

Voth for the 2nd.  Not sure if it was their plan initially but I'd have liked to try and get two out of Akin.  25 pitches in the first may have scuttled that plan.

[Mackus]

First two guys reach but no further damage in the 2nd.  Bunch of pitches though for Voth.